ALBERT

Description: Understanding how internal climate variability influences arctic regions is required to better forecast future global climate variations. This paper investigates an annually-laminated (varved) record from the western Canadian Arctic and finds that the varves are negatively correlated with both the instrumental Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) during the past century and also with reconstructed PDO over the past 700 years, suggesting drier Arctic conditions during high-PDO phases, and vice versa. These results are in agreement with known regional teleconnections, whereby the PDO is negatively and positively correlated with summer precipitation and mean sea level pressure respectively. This pattern is also evident during the positive phase of the North Pacific Index (NPI) in autumn. Reduced sea-ice cover during summer–autumn is observed in the region during PDO− (NPI+) and is associated with low-level southerly winds that originate from the northernmost Pacific across the Bering Strait and can reach as far as the western Canadian Arctic. These climate anomalies are associated with the PDO− (NPI+) phase and are key factors in enhancing evaporation and subsequent precipitation in this region of the Arctic. Collectively, the sedimentary evidence suggests that North Pacific climate variability has been a persistent regulator of the regional climate in the western Canadian Arctic. Since projected sea-ice loss will contribute to enhanced future warming in the Arctic, future negative phases of the PDO (or NPI+) will likely act to amplify this positive feedback.

Description: Volcanic aerosols exert the most important natural radiative forcing of the last millennium. State-of-the-art paleoclimate simulations of this interval are typically forced with diverse spatial patterns of volcanic forcing, leading to different responses in tropical hydroclimate. Recently, theoretical considerations relating the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) position to the demands of global energy balance have emerged in the literature, allowing for a connection to be made between the paleoclimate simulations and recent developments in the understanding of ITCZ dynamics. These energetic considerations aid in explaining the well-known historical, paleoclimatic, and modeling evidence that the ITCZ migrates away from the hemisphere that is energetically deficient in response to asymmetric forcing.Here we use two separate general circulation model (GCM) suites of experiments for the last millennium to relate the ITCZ position to asymmetries in prescribed volcanic sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere and related asymmetric radiative forcing. We discuss the ITCZ shift in the context of atmospheric energetics and discuss the ramifications of transient ITCZ migrations for other sensitive indicators of changes in the tropical hydrologic cycle, including global streamflow. For the first time, we also offer insight into the large-scale fingerprint of water isotopologues in precipitation (δ18Op) in response to asymmetries in radiative forcing. The ITCZ shifts away from the hemisphere with greater volcanic forcing. Since the isotopic composition of precipitation in the ITCZ is relatively depleted compared to areas outside this zone, this meridional precipitation migration results in a large-scale enrichment (depletion) in the isotopic composition of tropical precipitation in regions the ITCZ moves away from (toward). Our results highlight the need for careful consideration of the spatial structure of volcanic forcing for interpreting volcanic signals in proxy records and therefore in evaluating the skill of Common Era climate model output.

Description: Volcanic aerosols exert the most important natural radiative forcing of the last millennium. State-of-the-art paleoclimate simulations of this interval are typically forced with diverse spatial patterns of volcanic forcing, leading to different responses in tropical hydroclimate. Recently, theoretical considerations relating the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) position to the demands of global energy balance have emerged in the literature, allowing for a connection to be made between the paleoclimate simulations and recent developments in the understanding of ITCZ dynamics. These energetic considerations aid in explaining the well-known historical, paleoclimatic, and modeling evidence that the ITCZ migrates away from the hemisphere that is energetically deficient in response to asymmetric forcing. Here we use two separate GCM suites of experiments for the Last Millennium to relate the ITCZ position to asymmetries in prescribed volcanic sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere and related asymmetric radiative forcing. We discuss the ITCZ shift in the context of atmospheric energetics, and discuss the ramifications of transient ITCZ migrations for other sensitive indicators of changes in the tropical hydrologic cycle, including global streamflow. For the first time, we also offer insight into the large-scale fingerprint of water isotopologues in precipitation (δ18Op) in response to asymmetries in radiative forcing. The ITCZ shifts away from the hemisphere with greater forcing. Since the isotopic composition of the ITCZ is relatively depleted compared to areas outside this zone, this meridional precipitation migration results in a large-scale enrichment (depletion) in the isotopic composition of tropical precipitation in regions the ITCZ moves away from (toward). Our results highlight the need for careful consideration of the spatial structure of volcanic forcing for both impact assessments and for the testing of models against paleoclimate evidence.

Description: It is well established that the Arctic strongly influences global climate through positive feedback processes (Cohen et al., 2014), one of the most effective being the sea-ice – albedo feedback (Screen et al., 2010). Understanding the region’s sensitivity to both internal and external forcings is a prerequisite to better forecast future global climate variations. Here, sedimentological evidence from an annually laminated (varved) record highlights that North Pacific climate variability has been a persistent regulator of the regional climate in the western Canadian Arctic. The varved record is negatively correlated with both the instrumental and reconstructed Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (D'arrigo et al., 2001; Gedalof et al., 2001; Macdonald et al., 2005; Mantua et al., 1997) throughout most of the last 700 years, suggesting drier conditions during high PDO phases, and vice-versa. This is in agreement with known regional teleconnections whereby the PDO is negatively and positively correlated with summer precipitation and mean sea level pressure, respectively. This pattern is also seen during the positive phase of the North Pacific Index (NPI) (Trenberth et al., 1994) in autumn. A reduced sea-ice cover during summer is observed in the region during PDO- (NPI+), as has been found during winter (Screen et al., 2016). Strongest during the autumn season, low-level southerly winds extend from the northernmost Pacific across the Bering Strait and can reach as far as the Western Canadian Arctic. These climate anomalies projecting onto the PDO- (NPI+) phase are key factors in enhancing evaporation and subsequent precipitation in this region. As projected sea-ice loss will contribute to enhanced future warming in the Arctic, future negative phases of the PDO (or NPI+) will likely act as amplifiers of this positive feedback (Screen et al., 2016).

Description: Currently, little is known on how volcanic eruptions impact large-scale climate phenomena such as South American paleo-Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position and summer monsoon behavior. In this paper, an analysis of observations and model simulations is employed to assess the influence of large volcanic eruptions on the climate of tropical South America. This problem is first considered for historically recent volcanic episodes for which more observations are available but where fewer events exist and the confounding effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lead to inconclusive interpretation of the impact of volcanic eruptions at the continental scale. Therefore, we also examine a greater number of reconstructed volcanic events for the period 850 CE to present that are incorporated into the NASA GISS ModelE2-R simulation of the last millennium. An advantage of this model is its ability to explicitly track water isotopologues throughout the hydrologic cycle and simulating the isotopic imprint following a large eruption. This effectively removes a degree of uncertainty associated with error-prone conversion of isotopic signals into climate variables, and allows for a direct comparison between GISS simulations and paleoclimate proxy records. Our analysis reveals that both precipitation and oxygen isotope variability respond with a distinct seasonal and spatial structure across tropical South America following an eruption. During austral winter, the heavy oxygen isotope in precipitation is enriched, likely due to reduced moisture convergence in the ITCZ domain and reduced rainfall over northern South America. During austral summer, however, more negative values of the precipitation isotopic composition are simulated over Amazonia, despite reductions in rainfall, suggesting that the isotopic response is not a simple function of the "amount effect". During the South American monsoon season, the amplitude of the temperature response to volcanic forcing is larger than the rather weak and spatially less coherent precipitation signal, complicating the isotopic response to changes in the hydrologic cycle.

Description: In this paper we assess South American monsoon system (SAMS) variability in the last millennium as depicted by global coupled climate model simulations. High-resolution proxy records for the South American monsoon over this period show a coherent regional picture of a weak monsoon during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and a stronger monsoon during the Little Ice Age (LIA). Due to the small external forcing during the past 1000 years, model simulations do not show very strong temperature anomalies over these two specific periods, which in turn do not translate into clear precipitation anomalies, in contrast with the rainfall reconstructions in South America. Therefore, we used an ad hoc definition of these two periods for each model simulation in order to account for model-specific signals. Thereby, several coherent large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies are identified. The models feature a stronger monsoon during the LIA associated with (i) an enhancement of the rising motion in the SAMS domain in austral summer; (ii) a stronger monsoon-related upper-tropospheric anticyclone; (iii) activation of the South American dipole, which results in a poleward shift of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone; and (iv) a weaker upper-level subtropical jet over South America. The diagnosed changes provide important insights into the mechanisms of these climate anomalies over South America during the past millennium.

Description: The "Little Ice Age" (LIA; 1500–1850 Common Era (CE)), has long been recognized as the last period when mountain glaciers in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) recorded extensive growth intervals in terms of their ice mass and frontal position. The knowledge about this relevant paleoclimatic interval is vast in mountainous regions such as the Alps and Rocky Mountains in North America. However, in extra-tropical Andean sub-regions such as the Mediterranean Andes of Chile and Argentina (MA; 30º–37º S), the LIA has been poorly documented. Paradoxically, the few climate reconstructions performed in the MA based on lake sediments and tree rings do not show clear evidence of a LIA climate anomaly as observed in the NH. In addition, recent studies have demonstrated temporal differences between mean air temperature variations across the last millennium between both hemispheres. This motivates our hypothesis that the LIA period was not associated with a significant climate perturbation in the MA region. Considering this background, we performed an experiment using daily climatic variables from three Global Climate Models (GCMs) to force a novel glaciological model. In this way, we simulated temporal variations of the glacier equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) to evaluate the glacier response during the period 1500–1848 CE. Overall, each GCM shows temporal changes in annual ELA, with anomalously low elevations during 1640–1670 and 1800–1848 CE. An interval with high ELA values was identified during 1550–1575 CE. The spectral properties of the mean annual ELA in each GCM present significant periodicities between 2–7 years, and also significant decadal to multi-decadal signals. In addition, significant and coherent cycles at interannual to multi-decadal scales were detected between modeled mean annual ELAs and the first EOF1 extracted from Sea Surface Temperature (SST) within the El Niño 3.4 of each GCM. Finally, significant Pearson correlation coefficients were obtained between the mean annual ELA and Pacific SST on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. According to our findings, we propose that Pacific SST variability was the main modulator of temporal changes of the ELA in the MA region of South America during 1500–1848 CE.