ALBERT

Description: High alpine rock wall permafrost is extremely sensitive to climate change. Its degradation has a strong impact on landscape evolution and can trigger rockfalls constituting an increasing threat to socio-economical activities of highly frequented areas; quantitative understanding of permafrost evolution is crucial for such communities. This study investigates the long-term evolution of permafrost in three vertical cross sections of rock wall sites between 3160 and 4300 m above sea level in the Mont Blanc massif, from the Little Ice Age (LIA) steady-state conditions to 2100. Simulations are forced with air temperature time series, including two contrasted air temperature scenarios for the 21st century representing possible lower and upper boundaries of future climate change according to the most recent models and climate change scenarios. The 2-D finite element model accounts for heat conduction and latent heat transfers, and the outputs for the current period (2010–2015) are evaluated against borehole temperature measurements and an electrical resistivity transect: permafrost conditions are remarkably well represented. Over the past two decades, permafrost has disappeared on faces with a southerly aspect up to 3300 m a.s.l. and possibly higher. Warm permafrost (i.e.  〉   − 2 °C) has extended up to 3300 and 3850 m a.s.l. in N and S-exposed faces respectively. During the 21st century, warm permafrost is likely to extend at least up to 4300 m a.s.l. on S-exposed rock walls and up to 3850 m a.s.l. depth on the N-exposed faces. In the most pessimistic case, permafrost will disappear on the S-exposed rock walls at a depth of up to 4300 m a.s.l., whereas warm permafrost will extend at a depth of the N faces up to 3850 m a.s.l., but possibly disappearing at such elevation under the influence of a close S face. The results are site specific and extrapolation to other sites is limited by the imbrication of local topographical and transient effects.

Description: In June 2005, a series of major rockfall events completely wiped out the Bonatti Pillar located in the legendary Drus west face (Mont Blanc massif, France). Terrestrial lidar scans of the west face were acquired after this event, but no pre-event point cloud is available. Thus, in order to reconstruct the volume and the shape of the collapsed blocks, a 3-D model has been built using photogrammetry (structure-from-motion (SfM) algorithms) based on 30 pictures collected on the Web. All these pictures were taken between September 2003 and May 2005. We then reconstructed the shape and volume of the fallen compartment by comparing the SfM model with terrestrial lidar data acquired in October 2005 and November 2011. The volume is calculated to 292 680 m3 (±5.6 %). This result is close to the value previously assessed by Ravanel and Deline (2008) for this same rock avalanche (265 000 ± 10 000 m3). The difference between these two estimations can be explained by the rounded shape of the volume determined by photogrammetry, which may lead to a volume overestimation. However it is not excluded that the volume calculated by Ravanel and Deline (2008) is slightly underestimated, the thickness of the blocks having been assessed manually from historical photographs.