ALBERT

Description: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key mechanism for large-scale northward heat transport and thus plays an important role for global climate. Relatively warm water is transported northward in the upper layers of the North Atlantic Ocean and, after cooling at subpolar latitudes, sinks down and is transported back south in the deeper limb of the AMOC. The utility of in situ ocean bottom pressure (OBP) observations to infer AMOC changes at single latitudes has been characterized in the recent literature using output from ocean models. We extend the analysis and examine the utility of space-based observations of time-variable gravity and the inversion for ocean bottom pressure to monitor AMOC changes and variability between 20 and 60° N. Consistent with previous results, we find a strong correlation between the AMOC signal and OBP variations, mainly along the western slope of the Atlantic Basin. We then use synthetic OBP data – smoothed and filtered to resemble the resolution of the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) gravity mission, but without errors – and reconstruct geostrophic AMOC transport. Due to the coarse resolution of GRACE-like OBP fields, we find that leakage of signal across the step slopes of the ocean basin is a significant challenge at certain latitudes. Transport signal rms is of a similar order of magnitude as error rms for the reconstructed time series. However, the interannual AMOC anomaly time series can be recovered from 20 years of monthly GRACE-like OBP fields with errors less than 1 sverdrup in many locations.

Description: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key mechanism for large-scale northward heat transport and thus plays an important role for global climate. Relatively warm water is transported northward in the upper layers of the North Atlantic Ocean, and after cooling at subpolar latitudes, sinks down and is transported back south in the deeper limb of the AMOC. The utility of in-situ ocean bottom pressure (OBP) observations to infer AMOC changes at single latitudes has been characterized in recent literature using output from ocean models. We extend the analysis and examine the utility of space-based observations of time-variable gravity and the inversion for ocean bottom pressure to monitor AMOC changes and variability between 20 and 60° N. Consistent with previous results, we find a strong correlation between the AMOC signal and OBP variations, mainly along the western slope of the Atlantic basin. We then use synthetic OBP data – smoothed and filtered to resemble the resolution of the GRACE gravity mission – and reconstruct geostrophic AMOC transport. Due to the coarse resolution of GRACE-like OBP fields, we find that leakage of signal across the step slopes of the ocean basin is a significant challenge at certain latitudes. However, overall, the inter-annual AMOC anomaly time series can be recovered from 20 years of monthly GRACE-like OBP fields with errors less than 1 Sverdrup.

Description: Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. Locally, sea level can strongly deviate from the global mean rise due to changes in wind and ocean currents. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses. However, the land ice contribution to sea level rise (SLR) remains very challenging to model, and comprehensive regional sea level projections, which include appropriate gravitational adjustments, are still a nascent field (Katsman et al., 2011; Slangen et al., 2011). Here, we present an alternative approach to derive regional sea level changes for a range of emission and land ice melt scenarios, combining probabilistic forecasts of a simple climate model (MAGICC6) with the new CMIP5 general circulation models. The contribution from ice sheets varies considerably depending on the assumptions for the ice sheet projections, and thus represents sizeable uncertainties for future sea level rise. However, several consistent and robust patterns emerge from our analysis: at low latitudes, especially in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, sea level will likely rise more than the global mean (mostly by 10–20%). Around the northeastern Atlantic and the northeastern Pacific coasts, sea level will rise less than the global average or, in some rare cases, even fall. In the northwestern Atlantic, along the American coast, a strong dynamic sea level rise is counteracted by gravitational depression due to Greenland ice melt; whether sea level will be above- or below-average will depend on the relative contribution of these two factors. Our regional sea level projections and the diagnosed uncertainties provide an improved basis for coastal impact analysis and infrastructure planning for adaptation to climate change.

Description: Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice-sheets. Locally, sea-level changes can strongly deviate from the global mean due to ocean dynamics. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses, an effect currently not incorporated in climate models. Here, we provide probabilistic projections of sea level changes along the world's coastlines for the end of the 21st century under the new RCP emission scenarios, taking into account uncertainties across the cause-effect chain from greenhouse-gas emissions to ocean heat uptake and regional land-ice melt. At low latitudes, especially in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, sea level will likely rise more than the global mean (mostly by 10–20%, but up to 45% in Tokyo area). Around the North Atlantic and the North-Eastern Pacific coasts, sea level will rise less than the global average or, in some rare cases, even fall. Our probabilistic regional sea level projections provide an improved basis for coastal impact analysis and infrastructure planning for adaptation to climate change.