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  • Copernicus  (1)
  • EUROGOOS  (1)
  • 1
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    Development of super-ensemble techniques for ocean analyses: the Mediterranean Sea case (2016)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-08-09
    Description: A super-ensemble methodology is proposed to improve the quality of short-term ocean analyses for sea surface temperature (SST) in the Mediterranean Sea. The methodology consists of a multiple linear regression technique applied to a multi-physics multi-model super-ensemble (MMSE) data set. This is a collection of different operational forecasting analyses together with ad hoc simulations, created by modifying selected numerical model parameterizations. A new linear regression algorithm based on empirical orthogonal function filtering techniques is shown to be efficient in preventing overfitting problems, although the best performance is achieved when a simple spatial filter is applied after the linear regression. Our results show that the MMSE methodology improves the ocean analysis SST estimates with respect to the best ensemble member (BEM) and that the performance is dependent on the selection of an unbiased operator and the length of training. The quality of the MMSE data set has the largest impact on the MMSE analysis root mean square error (RMSE) evaluated with respect to observed satellite SST. The MMSE analysis estimates are also affected by training period length, with the longest period leading to the smoothest estimates. Finally, lower RMSE analysis estimates result from the following: a 15-day training period, an overconfident MMSE data set (a subset with the higher-quality ensemble members) and the least-squares algorithm being filtered a posteriori.
    Print ISSN: 1561-8633
    Electronic ISSN: 1684-9981
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 2
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    The Mediterranean ocean Forecasting System (2011)
    EUROGOOS
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) is operationally working since year 2000 and it is continuously improved in the frame of international projects. The system is part of the Mediterranean Operational Oceanography Network-MOON and MFS is coordinated and operated by the Italian Group of Operational Oceanography (GNOO). The latest upgrades and integration to MFS has been undertaken in the EU-MERSEA and BOSS4GMES Projects. Since October 2005 ten days forecasts are produced daily as well as 15 days of analyses once a week. The daily forecast and weekly analysis data are available in real time to the users through a dedicated ftp service and every day a web bulletin is published on the web site (http://gnoo.bo.ingv.it/mfs). A continuous evaluation in near real time of the forecasts and analyses produced by MFS has been developed in order to continuously verify the system and to provide useful information to the users. The R&D is focused on different aspects of the system. A new basin scale ocean model nested with operational MERCATOR global model has been developed and run in real time operationally for a test period together with a new assimilation scheme based on the 3DVAR. This system is now under evaluation. Important activities have been carried out to: implement and test a Bayesian methodologies of Ensemble and Super-Ensemble for the Mediterranean sea; produce 20 years of re-analysis; re-formulate the air-sea fluxes bulk formulae; develop dedicated products to support particular request of end users such as: indicators, real time oil spill forecasting, search & rescue.
    Description: EUROGOOS and European Commission
    Description: Published
    Description: Exeter, UK
    Description: 4.6. Oceanografia operativa per la valutazione dei rischi in aree marine
    Description: open
    Keywords: Mediterranean Sea ; Forecast ; validations ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.05. Operational oceanography
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Conference paper
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    PAPER (OA)
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