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  • Canadian Science Publishing  (6)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 1988-08-01
    Description: Overrun has been increasing in United States sawmills, particularly in recent years. While some of this increase may be attributed to log scaling biases, a substantial portion is apparently due to technological improvement. Have these technological improvements increased or dampened the rate of stumpage price inflation? Proponents of residual pricing theory argue that higher overrun causes stumpage prices to increase because lumber producers are able to pay more for stumpage. On the other hand, some analysts argue that higher overrun causes stumpage prices to fall by reducing the demand for stumpage. This paper addresses the controversy by means of a simple theoretical model of an integrated lumber market. The effect of improved overrun on stumpage price inflation is ambiguous and depends on the elasticity of both lumber demand and stumpage supply. However, by choosing reasonable values for key parameters, we conclude that at the level of the large producing region, say the Pacific Northwest, technology-based overrun improvements have most likely slowed the rate of stumpage price inflation.
    Print ISSN: 0045-5067
    Electronic ISSN: 1208-6037
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 1981-06-01
    Description: Because economic analysis of forest management decisions depends so critically on the choice of discount rate, the appropriate value of this parameter remains controversial. Recently several economists have suggested, in one form or another, that the discount rate depends on the duration of the investment. However, empirical evidence marshalled to support this position can be explained by a model of asset markets where future returns are uncertain. Consequently, adjusting the discount rate as a function of the duration of the investment may be inappropriate. Alternative analytical techniques are required for comparing timber investments with other assets.
    Print ISSN: 0045-5067
    Electronic ISSN: 1208-6037
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 1998-04-01
    Description: On 14 April 1994, the British Columbia government announced a new stumpage formula that, at then-expected product prices, increased the average charge by about $12/m3 and more than doubled the rate at which stumpage fees change when lumber prices change. Most of the increased revenues are reinvested in the forest sector by a new organization, Forest Renewal British Columbia (FRBC), created specifically for that purpose. Using standard event-study methodologies, this paper documents the net effect of the fee increases and new policy direction on British Columbia forest products companies. After controlling for firm-specific risk and the decline in the Toronto Stock Exchange that occurred at about the same time, the new stumpage policy extracted about $1.0 billion from shareholders of the firms studied, and perhaps $2.4 billion from all licencees (an amount roughly equal to the capitalized after-tax cost of the higher fees). The impact on individual firms is highly correlated with the allowable annual cut (AAC) in replaceable licenses each holds, with an average impact of about $33.3/m3 of AAC. The market appears to have discounted both the good news about offsets in impending timber-supply reductions that the creation of FRBC implies and the reductions in earnings risk that the new stumpage system provides. When added to the increased regulatory costs associated with the new provincial Forest Practice Code, the timber-fee increases appear to have fully depleted the value of holding British Columbia timber quotas.
    Print ISSN: 0045-5067
    Electronic ISSN: 1208-6037
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 1984-06-01
    Description: The allowable cut effect in harvest scheduling problems stems from the constraints which link harvests between periods. Historically, allowable cut effects have been associated with even flow constraints, but this is only one example of a more general situation. This paper describes two generic problems where allowable cut effects arise without any flow constraint. Allowable cut effects are a general part of the harvest scheduling problem. Valid economic analysis of forest management programs requires the inclusion of the positive or negative incomes associated with them.
    Print ISSN: 0045-5067
    Electronic ISSN: 1208-6037
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 1994-03-01
    Description: Viewed on an annual or quarterly basis, the Vancouver Log Market appears to process price information efficiently, but apparently does not do so for monthly trading intervals. For the longer holding periods the Vancouver Log Market passes one of the fundamental tests for an efficient market, and as a consequence there are few gains to make by speculating in this market on the basis of technical analysis of past price movements. Explanations for lack of information efficiency in the monthly returns requires further study. Holding logs does not appear to entail a significant amount of systematic or market risk if the holding periods are one quarter or less. Producers can hold log inventories in the Vancouver Log Market without increasing the financial risk of their enterprises.
    Print ISSN: 0045-5067
    Electronic ISSN: 1208-6037
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 1995-06-01
    Description: In 1987 the government of British Columbia (B.C.) made substantial changes in its forest policy, including "clawing back" 5% of the volume committed on all of its replaceable licenses and shifting of reforestation costs to the licensees. Analysis of the reaction of stock prices to the announcement of these policy changes reveals that the policy had a negative, but not statistically significant impact on B.C. forest products companies taken as a whole. Those medium-sized B.C. forest products firms that own little private land and operate mainly in B.C. suffered small but statistically insignificant losses. The policy changes apparently did not affect large B.C. forest products firms and non BC-based forest products firms. The results may arise because (i) as a result of restrictions on log exports the volume reductions were simply reallocated within extant timber markets, (ii) timber from the replaceable licences is fully priced, (iii) the adjustments were small when compared with the overall market capitalization of the firms involved, and (iv) there was general financial euphoria in the late 1980 s. These findings should not be extended to larger policy adjustments or to the problem of evaluating the impact of province-wide reductions in allowable harvest levels.
    Print ISSN: 0045-5067
    Electronic ISSN: 1208-6037
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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