ALBERT

Description: In their seminal paper in 1979, Bull and Schick proposed a conceptual model for the geomorphic response to Pleistocene to Holocene climate change, based on the hyperarid Nahal Yael watershed in the southern Negev Desert. In this model, the change from semiarid late Pleistocene to hyperarid early Holocene climates reduced vegetation cover, increased the yield of sediment from slopes, and accelerated aggradation of terraces and alluvial fans. The model is now over 30 yr old, and during this time, chronologic, paleoenvironmental, and hydrogeomorphic research has advanced. Here, we reevaluate the model using data acquired in Nahal Yael over the 30yr since the original model was proposed. Recent studies indicate that the late Pleistocene climate was hyperarid, and a transition from semiarid to hyperarid climates did not occur. The revised chronology reveals a major 35–20 ka episode of accelerated late Pleistocene sediment production on slopes (with lower rates probably already at ca. 50ka) due to increased frequency of wetting-drying cycles caused by frequent extreme storms and floods between 35 and 27 ka. Without lag time, these sediments were transported and aggraded in depositional landscape components (fluvial terraces and alluvial fans). This intensified sediment production and delivery phase is unrelated to the Pleistocene-Holocene transition. The depositional landforms were rapidly incised between 20 and 18 ka. Since and/or soon after this Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) incision, most material leaving the basin originated from sediments stored in depositional landforms and was not produced from bedrock.Using these new data, we propose a revision to the Bull and Schick model in this hyperarid environment. Our revision suggests that the model should include the frequent storms and floods responsible for a late Pleistocene pulse of intense weathering due to numerous cycles of wetting and drying on slopes and coeval sediment transport to fluvial terraces and alluvial fans. We also discuss the common use and pitfalls of using the Bull and Schick conceptual model to explain observations in diverse arid environments, usually without sufficient data on basin-specific stratigraphic, chronologic, paleoenvironmental, and paleoclimatic information.

Description: The late middle Pleistocene initiation of loess accretion in the Negev Desert, Israel, resulted from a chain of events starting with the exposure of shallow offshore Nile delta sands beginning [~]180 ka, during a period of glacially lowered eustatic sea level. This exposure allowed the formation of the dunes of the Sinai-Negev erg and the eastward movement of the dunes under the gusty glacial-time winds in northern Sinai. This eastward dune advance occurred by eolian saltation that generated the coarse silts that accumulated downwind as loess. We postulate that the absence of earlier Negev loess is not a result of interglacial erosion as previously proposed but is due to the relatively recent convergence of the above conditions necessary for loess formation. We based our interpretation on analyses of two long-term natural dust traps and the association of coarse quartz silt production with the advancing quartz-rich dunes over this carbonate terrain. The Nile delta is considered to be an early to middle Pleistocene feature, and therefore could have been the source of sand throughout the Quaternary. However, it was under the waters of the Mediterranean most of the time, and only exposed from marine oxygen isotope stage 7 to early stage 6. In Quaternary times prior to erg formation, Negev dust was finer, composed of silt and clays derived from distal sources in the Sahara and Arabian deserts.

Description: Heavy precipitation events (HPEs) can lead to natural hazards (e.g. floods and debris flows) and contribute to water resources. Spatiotemporal rainfall patterns govern the hydrological, geomorphological, and societal effects of HPEs. Thus, a correct characterisation and prediction of rainfall patterns is crucial for coping with these events. Information from rain gauges is generally limited due to the sparseness of the networks, especially in the presence of sharp climatic gradients. Forecasting HPEs depends on the ability of weather models to generate credible rainfall patterns. This paper characterises rainfall patterns during HPEs based on high-resolution weather radar data and evaluates the performance of a high-resolution, convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in simulating these patterns. We identified 41 HPEs in the eastern Mediterranean from a 24-year radar record using local thresholds based on quantiles for different durations, classified these events into two synoptic systems, and ran model simulations for them. For most durations, HPEs near the coastline were characterised by the highest rain intensities; however, for short durations, the highest rain intensities were found for the inland desert. During the rainy season, the rain field's centre of mass progresses from the sea inland. Rainfall during HPEs is highly localised in both space (less than a 10 km decorrelation distance) and time (less than 5 min). WRF model simulations were accurate in generating the structure and location of the rain fields in 39 out of 41 HPEs. However, they showed a positive bias relative to the radar estimates and exhibited errors in the spatial location of the heaviest precipitation. Our results indicate that convection-permitting model outputs can provide reliable climatological analyses of heavy precipitation patterns; conversely, flood forecasting requires the use of ensemble simulations to overcome the spatial location errors.