ISSN:
1435-5957
Source:
Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
Topics:
Geography
,
Economics
Notes:
Abstract. This study extends Shoesmith (2003) by generating probit model forecasts of downturns in national and state manufacturing and construction employment, using average weekly hours in manufacturing (HRS) and housing permits (HP), respectively, as explanatory variables. In each case the yield spread (SPREAD) is used as an alternative to HRS or HP. The expected result is that HRS and HP are more effective than SPREAD in forecasting downturns in related sectors of employment. However, the estimation and forecast results for the nation and 50 states show that SPREAD is in general more useful than HRS and HP, primarily because of the short lead times provided by the leading indicators.
Type of Medium:
Electronic Resource
URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1435-5957.2005.00025.x
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