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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2014-12-01
    Description: Convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model forecasts with 3-km horizontal grid spacing were produced for a 50-member ensemble over a domain spanning three-quarters of the contiguous United States between 25 May and 25 June 2012. Initial conditions for the 3-km forecasts were provided by a continuously cycling ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) analysis–forecast system with 15-km horizontal grid length. The 3-km forecasts were evaluated using both probabilistic and deterministic techniques with a focus on hourly precipitation. All 3-km ensemble members overpredicted rainfall and there was insufficient forecast precipitation spread. However, the ensemble demonstrated skill at discriminating between both light and heavy rainfall events, as measured by the area under the relative operating characteristic curve. Subensembles composed of 20–30 members usually demonstrated comparable resolution, reliability, and skill as the full 50-member ensemble. On average, deterministic forecasts initialized from mean EnKF analyses were at least as or more skillful than forecasts initialized from individual ensemble members “closest” to the mean EnKF analyses, and “patched together” forecasts composed of members closest to the ensemble mean during each forecast interval were skillful but came with caveats. The collective results underscore the need to improve convection-permitting ensemble spread and have important implications for optimizing EnKF-initialized forecasts.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2011-03-01
    Description: The Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) coupled with an urban canopy model is used to investigate the potential of vegetative (green) roof technology to mitigate against ongoing climate warming and continued urban sprawl for a day representing average summer conditions in late-twenty-first-century Chicago, Illinois. Effects related particularly to human health hazards resulting from excessive heat and high pollution concentrations are emphasized. Continued expansion of the urban environment over the next century is shown to lead to an expansion of the warming signal across the metropolitan region. Widespread adoption of vegetative rooftops, through increased albedo and evapotranspiration, reduces temperatures in the urban environment by as much as 3°C, an effect similar to the simpler but less appealing alternative of employing painted or other reflective rooftop structures (e.g., white roofs). A significant limitation to the green roof approach for the case studied is that the increase in moisture resulting from transpiration leads to only marginal cooling when apparent temperatures are considered. An additional complication arises in that the reduced temperatures alter the lake-breeze circulation, potentially reducing circulation of pollutants into the city core, but also reducing natural cooling in the most urbanized areas during the climatologically warmest hours. Future work that evaluates these impacts over a broader range of synoptic settings, documents changes in the planetary boundary layer structure and attendant pollution, and considers the multiple-day dependence of these effects is needed.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1558-8432
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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