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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2009-05-15
    Description: Multimillennial simulations with a fully coupled climate–carbon cycle model are examined to assess the persistence of the climatic impacts of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. It is found that the time required to absorb anthropogenic CO2 strongly depends on the total amount of emissions; for emissions similar to known fossil fuel reserves, the time to absorb 50% of the CO2 is more than 2000 yr. The long-term climate response appears to be independent of the rate at which CO2 is emitted over the next few centuries. Results further suggest that the lifetime of the surface air temperature anomaly might be as much as 60% longer than the lifetime of anthropogenic CO2 and that two-thirds of the maximum temperature anomaly will persist for longer than 10 000 yr. This suggests that the consequences of anthropogenic CO2 emissions will persist for many millennia.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2006-09-01
    Description: Temperature data for seven instrumental records in the Karakoram and Hindu Kush Mountains of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) have been analyzed for seasonal and annual trends over the period 1961–2000 and compared with neighboring mountain regions and the Indian subcontinent. Strong contrasts are found between the behavior of winter and summer temperatures and between maximum and minimum temperatures. Winter mean and maximum temperature show significant increases while mean and minimum summer temperatures show consistent decline. Increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR) is consistently observed in all seasons and the annual dataset, a pattern shared by much of the Indian subcontinent but in direct contrast to both GCM projections and the narrowing of DTR seen worldwide. This divergence commenced around the middle of the twentieth century and is thought to result from changes in large-scale circulation patterns and feedback processes associated with the Indian monsoon. The impact of observed seasonal temperature trend on runoff is explored using derived regression relationships. Decreases of ∼20% in summer runoff in the rivers Hunza and Shyok are estimated to have resulted from the observed 1°C fall in mean summer temperature since 1961, with even greater reductions in spring months. The observed downward trend in summer temperature and runoff is consistent with the observed thickening and expansion of Karakoram glaciers, in contrast to widespread decay and retreat in the eastern Himalayas. This suggests that the western Himalayas are showing a different response to global warming than other parts of the globe.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2015-05-01
    Description: Clouds play a key role in hydroclimatological variability by modulating the surface energy balance and air temperature. This study utilizes MODIS cloud cover data, with corroboration from global meteorological reanalysis (ERA-Interim) cloud estimates, to describe a cloud climatology for the upper Indus River basin. It has specific focus on tributary catchments in the northwest of the region, which contribute a large fraction of basin annual runoff, including 65% of flow originating above Besham, Pakistan or 50 km3 yr−1 in absolute terms. In this region there is substantial cloud cover throughout the year, with spatial means of 50%–80% depending on the season. The annual cycles of catchment spatial mean daytime and nighttime cloud cover fraction are very similar. This regional diurnal homogeneity belies substantial spatial variability, particularly along seasonally varying vertical profiles (based on surface elevation). Correlations between local near-surface air temperature observations and MODIS cloud cover fraction confirm the strong linkages between local atmospheric conditions and near-surface climate variability. These correlations are interpreted in terms of seasonal and diurnal variations in apparent cloud radiative effect and its influence on near-surface air temperature in the region. The potential role of cloud radiative effect in recognized seasonally and diurnally asymmetrical temperature trends over recent decades is also assessed by relating these locally observed trends to ERA-Interim-derived trends in cloud cover fraction. Specifically, reduction in nighttime cloud cover fraction relative to daytime conditions over recent decades appears to provide a plausible physical mechanism for the observed nighttime cooling of surface air temperature in summer months.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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