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  • 1
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    Strengthening Market Linkages of Farm Households in Developing Countries (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-05-12
    Description: Farm households in developing countries generally allocate a major portion of their resources to staple food production, mainly for self-consumption. Hence, many of them are more or less delinked from the market. It is well recognized, however, that market participation is crucial for farm households to ensure a flow of cash income, leading to poverty alleviation and improved livelihoods. Thus, it is meaningful to understand what factors affect farm households' decision to sell food crops, which is important for strengthening their linkages with markets. The empirical literature on impacts of market linkages has seldom focused on the determinants of market participation. Using rice farm households in Bangladesh and applying a double-hurdle model, this article demonstrates that the provision of general education and the development of agricultural infrastructure such as irrigation facilities can strengthen the market linkages of farm households by enhancing their marketable surplus through increased production. By contrast, rainfall beyond the optimum level, drought spells, and flood incidences can weaken market linkages by reducing their marketable surplus through decreased production. Specific policies such as investment in general education are drawn up based on the findings.
    Keywords: C24 - Truncated and Censored Models, D01 - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles, D13 - Household Production and Intrahousehold Allocation, Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness
    Print ISSN: 2040-5790
    Electronic ISSN: 2040-5804
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 2
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    A Triple-Hurdle Model of Production and Market Participation in Kenya's Dairy Market (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-07-10
    Description: Existing analyses of market participation are based on a "double-hurdle" modeling approach. Such models are appropriate only when all members of the population of interest actually produce the good. In some contexts, however (e.g., smallholder farmers), many members of the population do not produce particular goods that they could produce and that their neighbors do produce. Policies influencing market participation among producers may thus also induce additional farmers to become producers. Previous double-hurdle approaches do not allow explicitly for this possibility. To address these limitations, this article presents a "triple-hurdle" approach with an initial stage that includes nonproducers. The model is used to identify the factors associated with Kenyan smallholder farmers choosing to participate in dairy production, and the role that these producers choose to play (or not) in the marketplace. In the midst of debates underway over the privatization of the parastatal Kenya Creameries Company, new knowledge about smallholder participation in dairy could be an important contribution. Results suggest the importance of rural electrification, training, and improved grazing practices. We find that expected net sales are significantly higher when farmers have access to informal private markets. We also describe a version of the ordered tobit model that includes nonproducers and is nested in our triple-hurdle model. A likelihood ratio test shows the latter to be a significantly better fit to our data. We discuss how insights gained from this study differ from the insights that would come from a double-hurdle ordered tobit that also includes nonproducers.
    Keywords: C51 - Model Construction and Estimation, C81 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data, O12 - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 3
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    Is embedding entailed in consumer valuation of food safety characteristics? (2011)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2011-11-24
    Description: Consumers' preferences for food safety characteristics are investigated with a particular focus on the existence of an embedding effect. Embedding exists if consumer valuation of food safety is insensitive to scope. We conduct between-attribute external tests for embedding in two choice experiments concerning the value of food safety attributes in minced pork and chicken breasts. We find no evidence of embedding neither when using food safety attributes that are not close substitutes and which exhibit both private and public good characteristics, nor when using food safety attributes that are closer substitutes and which have primarily private good characteristics.
    Keywords: Q10 - General, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy
    Print ISSN: 0165-1587
    Electronic ISSN: 1464-3618
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 4
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    The Behavior of Bid-Ask Spreads in the Electronically-Traded Corn Futures Market (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-03-21
    Description: This is the first paper to analyze liquidity costs in agricultural futures markets based on the observed bid-ask spread (BAS) faced by market participants. The results reveal a highly liquid corn market that mostly offers order execution at minimum cost. The BAS responds negatively to volume and positively to price volatility, but also affects volume traded and price volatility. While statistically significant, these responses on a cents/bushel or a percentage basis are generally small. Liquidity costs are also virtually impervious to short-term changes in demand for spreading and trend-following trader activity, as well as differences from day-of-the-week changes in market activity. Much larger cents/bushel and percentage changes in BAS occur during commodity index trader roll periods and on USDA report release days. The roll period findings indicate a sunshine trading effect, while announcement effects identify the importance of unexpected information and adverse selection on order execution costs. Overall, our research demonstrates that the transition to electronic trading in the corn futures market has led to low and stable liquidity costs, despite the market turbulence in 2008–2009.
    Keywords: C36- Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation, G12 - Asset Pricing ; Trading volume ; Bond Interest Rates, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 5
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    Social Networks and New Product Choice (2014)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2014-03-21
    Description: To successfully market new products in a social network it is essential to identify influential individuals whose product recommendations influence the consumption choices of their peers. In this study, we use spatial econometric methods to determine how individuals revise their preferences for product attributes when exposed to product recommendations from peers, and how different individuals who vary in their degree of network connectedness exert influence on the product choices of others. We find evidence that consumers look to others for guidance from peers in their preference for subjective, taste-specific parameters, but tend not to respond to peer price choices. Our spatial methods allow us to empirically determine the influence exerted by individual members on the consumption choices of other members of the social network. We find that connected members of the social network are not always the most influential in revising the consumption choices of others. Our estimates reveal that network proximity explains only 8.8% of influence.
    Keywords: D12 - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 6
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    Behavioral Responses and the Impact of New Agricultural Technologies: Evidence from a Double-blind Field Experiment in Tanzania (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-04-05
    Description: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in the social sciences are typically not double-blind, so participants know they are "treated" and will adjust their behavior accordingly. Such effort responses complicate the assessment of impact. To gauge the potential magnitude of effort responses we implement a conventional RCT and double-blind trial in rural Tanzania, and randomly allocate modern and traditional cowpea seed varieties to a sample of farmers. Effort responses can be quantitatively important—for our case they explain the entire "treatment effect on the treated" as measured in a conventional economic RCT. Specifically, harvests are the same for people who know they received the modern seeds and for people who did not know what type of seeds they got; however, people who knew they had received the traditional seeds did much worse. Importantly, we also find that most of the behavioral response is unobserved by the analyst, or at least not readily captured using coarse, standard controls.
    Keywords: Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 7
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    Structural change in European calf markets: decoupling and the blue tongue disease (2011)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2011-12-27
    Description: European cattle markets have recently undergone significant change. We explore the simultaneous impacts of agricultural policy reform and the occurrence of an animal health crisis on spatial interdependencies of calf prices of four major European Union markets. The markets are found to be integrated. Price shocks are rapidly absorbed. We find that the member state specific implementations of the 2003 Common Agricultural Policy reforms significantly affected prices of both the national market and of other member states. The blue tongue disease further induced structural change. Using counterfactual scenarios, we show that the decoupling of payments from production led to reduced calf prices.
    Keywords: C32 - Time-Series Models, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy
    Print ISSN: 0165-1587
    Electronic ISSN: 1464-3618
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 8
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    Futures Market Failure? (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-12-13
    Description: In a well-functioning futures market, the futures price at expiration equals the price of the underlying asset. This condition failed to hold in grain markets for most of 2005-2010, calling into question the ability of these markets to perform their price discovery and risk management functions. During this period, futures contracts expired up to 35% above the cash grain price. We develop a dynamic rational expectations model of commodity storage that explains how these recent convergence failures were generated by the institutional structure of the delivery system. When delivery occurs on a grain futures contract, the firm on the short side of the market provides a delivery instrument (a warehouse receipt or shipping certificate) to the firm on the long side of the market. The firm taking delivery may hold the delivery instrument indefinitely, providing it pays a daily storage rate. The futures exchange sets the maximum allowable storage rate at a fixed value. We show that non-convergence arises in equilibrium when the market price of physical grain storage exceeds the maximum storage rate on delivery instruments. We call the difference between the price of carrying physical grain and the maximum storage rate the wedge , and demonstrate theoretically and empirically that the magnitude of the non-convergence equals the expected present discounted value of a function of future wedges.
    Keywords: G13 - Contingent Pricing ; Futures Pricing, G14 - Information and Market Efficiency ; Event Studies, Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis ; Prices, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 9
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    Price Explosiveness, Speculation, and Grain Futures Prices (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-12-13
    Description: A recently developed testing procedure is used to detect and date-stamp explosive episodes ("bubbles") in corn, soybean, and wheat futures markets during 2004–2013. We find that the markets experienced price explosiveness only approximately two percent of the time and, when bubbles do occur, they are generally short-lived and small in magnitude. The correspondence between observed price spikes and bubbles is rather low, with a large portion of the price explosiveness occurring during downward price movements. Commodity index trader positions do not significantly affect the probability of a positive bubble occurring in grain futures markets, which directly contradicts the argument (the "Masters Hypothesis") that waves of index investment distorted underlying supply-and-demand relationships and led to a series of massive bubbles in agricultural futures markets. In addition, commodity index trader positions tend to reduce negative bubble occurrence, while general speculative activity as measured by Working's T reduces the probability of a positive bubble. There is some evidence that the positions of noncommercial traders have a direct effect on positive bubble occurrence, but the effect declines when accounting for the composition of other traders in the market. Overall, speculation has little effect or negative effects on price explosiveness. Finally, positive bubbles are more likely to occur in the presence of low inventories, strong exports, a weak U.S. dollar, and booming economic growth, whereas negative bubbles are more likely to occur with large inventories, weak exports, and stagnant economic growth.
    Keywords: D84 - Expectations ; Speculations, G12 - Asset Pricing ; Trading volume ; Bond Interest Rates, G13 - Contingent Pricing ; Futures Pricing, G14 - Information and Market Efficiency ; Event Studies, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness, Q41 - Demand and Supply
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 10
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    Adapting Contract Theory to Fit Contract Farming (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-09-02
    Description: This article discusses the current state of contract theory and its usefulness for conceptualizing issues related to agricultural contracting. The paper will explore the limitations of existing theory for applied work, and what methodological improvements are needed to enhance the usefulness of the theory to agricultural economists. One pervasive problem is that the economic literature on contracts is rather fragmented and the various methodological strands are narrow in their focus. As such, agricultural economists should engage in methodological research to develop applied contracting models that can capture higher-order features of real-world agricultural contracts while delivering generalizable comparative statics predictions because contracting continues to expand along the entire modern food marketing channel. In the latter part of this article, a simple model is developed to illustrate how classic methodological approaches can be combined with recent developments in contract and game theory to construct applied theory models that are useful for capturing some important features of agricultural contracts.
    Keywords: D43 - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection, D82 - Asymmetric and Private Information, D86 - Economics of Contract: Theory, Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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