ALBERT

Description: We introduce the Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface (CAUSES) project with its aim of better understanding the physical processes leading to warm screen-temperature biases over the American Midwest in many numerical models. In this first of four companion papers, 11 different models, from 9 institutes, perform a series of 5-day hindcasts, each initialised from reanalyses. After describing the common experimental protocol and detailing each model configuration, a gridded temperature data set is derived from observations and used to show that all the models have a warm bias over parts of the Midwest. Additionally, a strong diurnal cycle in the screen-temperature bias is found in most models. In some models the bias is largest around midday, while in others it is largest during the night. At the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, the model biases are shown to extend several kilometers into the atmosphere. Finally, to provide context for the companion papers, in which observations from the SGP site are used to evaluate the different processes contributing to errors there, it is shown that there are numerous locations across the Midwest where the diurnal cycle of the error is highly correlated with the diurnal cycle of the error at SGP. This suggests that conclusions drawn from detailed evaluation of models using instruments located at SGP will be representative of errors that are prevalent over a larger spatial scale.

Description: Locating sources of diffusion and spreading from minimum data is a significant problem in network science with great applied values to the society. However, a general theoretical framework dealing with optimal source localization is lacking. Combining the controllability theory for complex networks and compressive sensing, we develop a framework with high efficiency and robustness for optimal source localization in arbitrary weighted networks with arbitrary distribution of sources. We offer a minimum output analysis to quantify the source locatability through a minimal number of messenger nodes that produce sufficient measurement for fully locating the sources. When the minimum messenger nodes are discerned, the problem of optimal source localization becomes one of sparse signal reconstruction, which can be solved using compressive sensing. Application of our framework to model and empirical networks demonstrates that sources in homogeneous and denser networks are more readily to be located. A surprising finding is that, for a connected undirected network with random link weights and weak noise, a single messenger node is sufficient for locating any number of sources. The framework deepens our understanding of the network source localization problem and offers efficient tools with broad applications.

Description: Many numerical weather prediction and climate models exhibit too warm lower tropospheres near the mid-latitude continents. The warm bias has been shown to coincide with important surface radiation biases that likely play a critical role in the inception or the growth of the warm bias. This paper presents an attribution study on the net radiation biases in 9 model simulations, performed in the framework of the CAUSES project (Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface). Contributions from deficiencies in the surface properties, clouds, water vapor and aerosols are quantified, using an array of radiation measurement stations near the ARM SGP site. Furthermore, an in-depth analysis is shown to attribute the radiation errors to specific cloud regimes. The net surface shortwave radiation is overestimated in all models throughout most of the simulation period. Cloud errors are shown to contribute most to this overestimation, although non-negligible contributions from the surface albedo exist in most models. Missing deep cloud events and/or simulating deep clouds with too weak cloud-radiative effects dominate in the cloud-related radiation errors. Some models have compensating errors between excessive occurrence of deep cloud, but largely underestimating their radiative effect, while other models miss deep cloud events altogether. Surprisingly, even the latter models tend to produce too much and too frequent afternoon surface precipitation. This suggests that rather than issues with the triggering of deep convection, cloud-radiative deficiencies are related to too weak convective cloud detrainment and too large precipitation efficiencies.

Description: Many weather forecast and climate models simulate warm surface air temperature (T 2m ) biases over mid-latitude continents during the summertime, especially over the Great Plains. We present here one of a series of papers from a multi-model intercomparison project (CAUSES: Cloud Above the United States and Errors at the Surface), which aims to evaluate the role of cloud, radiation, and precipitation biases in contributing to the T 2m bias using a short-term hindcast approach during the spring and summer of 2011. Observations are mainly from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) sites. The present study examines the contributions of surface energy budget errors. All participating models simulate too much net shortwave and longwave fluxes at the surface but with no consistent mean bias sign in turbulent fluxes over the Central U.S. and SGP. Nevertheless, biases in the net shortwave and downward longwave fluxes, as well as surface evaporative fraction (EF) are contributors to T 2m bias. Radiation biases are largely affected by cloud simulations, while EF bias is largely affected by soil moisture modulated by seasonal accumulated precipitation and evaporation. An approximate equation based upon the surface energy budget is derived to further quantify the magnitudes of radiation and EF contributions to T 2m bias. Our analysis ascribes that a large EF underestimate is the dominant source of error in all models with a large positive temperature bias, whereas an EF overestimate compensates for an excess of absorbed shortwave radiation in nearly all the models with the smallest temperature bias.

Description: Solar wind dynamic pressure (Pdyn) enhancements have been observed to cause large-scale auroral brightening. The mechanism for this kind of auroral brightening is still a topic of current space research. Using the global piecewise parabolic method Lagrangian remap (PPMLR)-MHD simulation model, we investigate three auroral brightening events caused by dynamic pressure enhancement under different interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions: (1) Bz 〈 0 and By 〉 0 on 11 August 2000, (2) Bz 〈 0 and By 〈 0 on 8 May 2001, and (3) Bz ≥ 0 on 21 January 2005. We show that the auroral location depends on the IMF conditions. Under southward IMF conditions, when By is negative, the duskside aurora is located more equatorward at around 70° magnetic latitude (MLAT) for all magnetic local times; when By is positive, the duskside aurora can even reach beyond 80° MLAT. A smaller and more localized response is seen when the IMF Bz is nearly zero or northward, as shown in previous studies. Our simulation results are consistent with these observations, indicating that the observed aurora activities could be caused by solar wind dynamic pressure enhancements. The simulation results suggest that the enhancement of Pdyn can increase the ionospheric transpolar potential and the corresponding field-aligned currents, leading to the observed auroral brightening.

Description: Using a seismic database from the Qiongdongnan Basin in the South China Sea, this study demonstrates that shelf-edge trajectories and stratal stacking patterns are reliable, but understated, predictors of deep-water sedimentation styles and volumes of deep-water sand deposits, assisting greatly in locating sand-rich environments and in developing a more predictive and dynamic stratigraphy. Three main types of shelf-edge trajectories and their associated stratal stacking patterns were recognized: (1) flat to slightly falling trajectories with negative trajectory angles ( $${T}_{\mathrm{se}}$$ ) (–2° to 0°) and negative shelf-edge aggradation to progradation ratios ( $$\mathrm{d}y/\mathrm{d}x$$ ) (–0.04 to 0) and associated progradational and downstepping stacking patterns with low clinoform relief ( $${R}_{\mathrm{c}}$$ ) (150–550 m [492–1804 ft]) and negative differential sedimentation on the shelf and basin ( $${A}_{\mathrm{s}}/{A}_{\mathrm{b}}$$ ) (–0.6 to 0); (2) slightly rising trajectories with moderate $${T}_{\mathrm{se}}$$ (0°–2°) and medium $$\mathrm{d}y/\mathrm{d}x$$ (0–0.04), and associated progradational and aggradational stacking patterns with intermediate $${R}_{\mathrm{c}}$$ (250–400 m [820–1312 ft]) and intermediate $${A}_{\mathrm{s}}/{A}_{\mathrm{b}}$$ (0–0.6); and (3) steeply rising trajectories with high $${T}_{\mathrm{se}}$$ (2°–6°) and high $$\mathrm{d}y/\mathrm{d}x$$ (0.04–0.10) and associated dominantly aggradational stacking patterns with high $${R}_{\mathrm{c}}$$ (350–650 m [1148–2132 ft]) and high $${A}_{\mathrm{s}}/{A}_{\mathrm{b}}$$ (1–2). Each trajectory regime represents a specific stratal stacking patterns, providing new tools to define a model-independent methodology for sequence stratigraphy. Flat to slightly falling shelf-edge trajectories and progradational and downstepping stacking patterns are empirically related to large-scale, sand-rich gravity flows and associated bigger and thicker sand-rich submarine fan systems. Slightly rising shelf-edge trajectories and progradational and aggradational stacking patterns are associated with mixed sand/mud gravity flows and moderate-scale slope-sand deposits. Steeply rising shelf-edge trajectories and dominantly aggradational stacking patterns are fronted by large-scale mass-wasting processes and associated areally extensive mass-transport systems. Therefore, given a constant sediment supply, then $${T}_{\mathrm{se}}$$ , $$\mathrm{d}y/\mathrm{d}x$$ , $${R}_{\mathrm{c}}$$ , and $${A}_{\mathrm{s}}/{A}_{\mathrm{b}}$$ are all proportional to intensity of mass-wasting processes and to amounts of mass-transport deposits, and are inversely proportional to the intensity of sand-rich gravity flows and to amounts of deep-water sandstone. These relationships can be employed to relate quantitative characteristics of shelf-edge trajectories and stratal stacking patterns to deep-water sedimentation styles.

Description: A series of short and steep unidirectionally migrating deep-water channels, which are typically without levees and migrate progressively northeastward, are identified in the Baiyun depression, Pearl River Mouth Basin. Using three-dimensional seismic and well data, the current study documents their morphology, internal architecture, and depositional history, and discusses the distribution and depositional controls on the bottom current–reworked sands within these channels. Unidirectionally migrating deep-water channels consist of different channel-complex sets (CCSs) that are, overall, short and steep, and their northeastern walls are, overall, steeper than their southwestern counterparts. Within each CCS, bottom current–reworked sands in the lower part grade upward into muddy slumps and debris-flow deposits and, finally, into shale drapes. Three stages of CCSs development are recognized: (1) the early lowstand incision stage, during which intense gravity and/or turbidity flows versus relatively weak along-slope bottom currents of the North Pacific intermediate water (NPIW-BCs) resulted in basal erosional bounding surfaces and limited bottom current–reworked sands; (2) the late lowstand lateral-migration and active-fill stage, with gradual CCS widening and progressively northeastward migration, characterized by reworking of gravity- and/or turbidity-flow deposits by vigorous NPIW-BCs and the CCSs being mainly filled by bottom current–reworked sands and limited slumps and debris-flow deposits; and (3) the transgression abandonment stage, characterized by the termination of the gravity and/or turbidity flows and the CCSs being widely draped by marine shales. These three stages repeated through time, leading to the generation of unidirectionally migrating deep-water channels. The distribution of the bottom current–reworked sands varies both spatially and temporally. Spatially, these sands mainly accumulate along the axis of the unidirectionally migrating deep-water channels and are preferentially deposited to the side toward which the channels migrated. Temporally, these sands mainly accumulated during the late lowstand lateral-migration and active-fill stage. The bottom current–reworked sands developed under the combined action of gravity and/or turbidity flows and along-slope bottom currents of NPIW-BCs. Other factors, including relative sea level fluctuations, sediment supply, and slope configurations, also affected the formation and distribution of these sands. The proposed distribution pattern of the bottom current–reworked sands has practical implications for predicting reservoir occurrence and distribution in bottom current–related channels.

Description: We examine the effects of the ionospheric conductance on the intensification of the westward electrojet current in the ionosphere based on the piecewise parabolic method with a Lagrangian remap (PPMLR) global MHD simulation model. The ionospheric conductance is empirically linked to the plasma pressure in the plasma sheet. The simulation results are consistent with observations: When the Pedersen and Hall conductances are small, the ionospheric current shows a two-cell pattern; when the conductances increase and the ratio ΣH/ΣP ≥ 2, an intense westward electrojet appears in the midnight sector. This intense westward electrojet is the Cowling current driven by the induced southward electric field due to the blockage of the northward Hall current from closure in the equatorial plasma sheet. The simulation shows the development of the Cowling electrojet is essential to the intensification of the westward electrojet in the ionosphere.

Description: Lower Cretaceous pedogenic carbonates exposed in SE China have been dated by U–Pb isotope measurements on single zircons taken from intercalated volcanic rocks, and the ages integrated with existing stratigraphy. 13 C values of calcretes range from –7.0 to –3.0 and can be grouped into five episodes of increasing–decreasing values. The carbon isotope proxy derived from these palaeosol carbonates suggests p CO 2 mostly in the range 1000–2000 parts per million by volume (ppmV) at S ( z ) (CO 2 contributed by soil respiration) = 2500 ppmV and 25°C during the Hauterivian–Albian interval ( c . 30 Ma duration). Such atmospheric CO 2 levels are 4–8 times pre-industrial values, almost double those estimated by geochemical modelling and much higher than those established from stomatal indices in fossil plants. Rapid rises in p CO 2 are identified for early Hauterivian, middle Barremian, late Aptian, early Albian and middle Albian time, and rapid falls for intervening periods. These episodic cyclic changes in p CO 2 are not attributed to local tectonism and volcanism but rather to global changes. The relationship between reconstructed p CO 2 and the development of large igneous provinces (LIPs) remains unclear, although large-scale extrusion of basalt may well be responsible for relatively high atmospheric levels of this greenhouse gas. Suggested levels of relatively low p CO 2 correspond in timing to intervals of regional to global enrichment of marine carbon in sediments and negative carbon isotope ( 13 C) excursions characteristic of the oceanic anoxic events OAE1a (Selli Event), Kilian and Paquier events (constituting part of the OAE 1b cluster) and OAE1d. Short-term episodes of high p CO 2 coincide with negligible carbon isotope excursions associated with the Faraoni Event and the Jacob Event. Given that episodes of regional organic carbon burial would draw down CO 2 and negative 13 C excursions indicate the addition of isotopically light carbon to the ocean–atmosphere system, controls on the carbon cycle in controlling p CO 2 during Early Cretaceous time were clearly complex and made more so by atmospheric composition also being affected by changes in silicate weathering intensity.

Description: In this work, two kinds of partial least squares modelling methods are applied to predict a compressor map: one uses a power function polynomial as the basis function (PLSO), and the other uses a trigonometric function polynomial (PLSN). To demonstrate the potential capabilities of PLSO and PLSN for a typical interpolated prediction and an extrapolated prediction, they are compared with two other classical data-driven modelling methods, namely the look-up table and artificial neural network (ANN). PLSO and PLSN are also compared with each other. The results show that PLSO and PLSN have a better prediction performance than the look-up table and the ANN, especially for the extrapolated prediction. The computational time is also decreased sharply. Compared with PLSO, PLSN is characterized by a higher prediction accuracy and shorter computational time than PLSO. It is expected that PLSN could save computational time and also improve the accuracy of a thermodynamic model of a diesel engine.