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  • 1
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    Seismic-Hazard Forecast for 2016 Including Induced and Natural Earthquakes in the Central and Eastern United States (2016)
    Seismological Society of America (SSA)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-11-04
    Description: The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has produced a one-year (2016) probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment for the central and eastern United States (CEUS) that includes contributions from both induced and natural earthquakes that are constructed with probabilistic methods using alternative data and inputs. This hazard assessment builds on our 2016 final model ( Petersen et al. , 2016 ) by adding sensitivity studies, illustrating hazard in new ways, incorporating new population data, and discussing potential improvements. The model considers short-term seismic activity rates (primarily 2014–2015) and assumes that the activity rates will remain stationary over short time intervals. The final model considers different ways of categorizing induced and natural earthquakes by incorporating two equally weighted earthquake rate submodels that are composed of alternative earthquake inputs for catalog duration, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground-motion models. These alternatives represent uncertainties on how we calculate earthquake occurrence and the diversity of opinion within the science community. In this article, we also test sensitivity to the minimum moment magnitude between M  4 and M  4.7 and the choice of applying a declustered catalog with b =1.0 rather than the full catalog with b =1.3. We incorporate two earthquake rate submodels: in the informed submodel we classify earthquakes as induced or natural, and in the adaptive submodel we do not differentiate. The alternative submodel hazard maps both depict high hazard and these are combined in the final model. Results depict several ground-shaking measures as well as intensity and include maps showing a high-hazard level (1% probability of exceedance in 1 year or greater). Ground motions reach 0.6 g horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) in north-central Oklahoma and southern Kansas, and about 0.2 g PGA in the Raton basin of Colorado and New Mexico, in central Arkansas, and in north-central Texas near Dallas–Fort Worth. The chance of having levels of ground motions corresponding to modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) VI or greater earthquake shaking is 2%–12% per year in north-central Oklahoma and southern Kansas and New Madrid similar to the chance of damage at sites in high-hazard portions of California caused by natural earthquakes. Hazard is also significant in the Raton basin of Colorado/New Mexico; north-central Arkansas; Dallas–Fort Worth, Texas; and in a few other areas. Hazard probabilities are much lower (by about half or more) for exceeding MMI VII or VIII. Hazard is 3- to 10-fold higher near some areas of active-induced earthquakes than in the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), which did not consider induced earthquakes. This study in conjunction with the LandScan TM Database (2013) indicates that about 8 million people live in areas of active injection wells that have a greater than 1% chance of experiencing damaging ground shaking (MMI≥VI) in 2016. The final model has high uncertainty, and engineers, regulators, and industry should use these assessments cautiously to make informed decisions on mitigating the potential effects of induced and natural earthquakes.
    Print ISSN: 0895-0695
    Electronic ISSN: 1938-2057
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Seismological Society of America (SSA)
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  • 2
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    2017 One-Year Seismic-Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from Induced and Natural Earthquakes (2017)
    Seismological Society of America (SSA)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-27
    Description: We produce a one-year 2017 seismic-hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes that updates the 2016 one-year forecast; this map is intended to provide information to the public and to facilitate the development of induced seismicity forecasting models, methods, and data. The 2017 hazard model applies the same methodology and input logic tree as the 2016 forecast, but with an updated earthquake catalog. We also evaluate the 2016 seismic-hazard forecast to improve future assessments. The 2016 forecast indicated high seismic hazard (greater than 1% probability of potentially damaging ground shaking in one year) in five focus areas: Oklahoma–Kansas, the Raton basin (Colorado/New Mexico border), north Texas, north Arkansas, and the New Madrid Seismic Zone. During 2016, several damaging induced earthquakes occurred in Oklahoma within the highest hazard region of the 2016 forecast; all of the 21 moment magnitude ( M ) ≥4 and 3 M ≥5 earthquakes occurred within the highest hazard area in the 2016 forecast. Outside the Oklahoma–Kansas focus area, two earthquakes with M ≥4 occurred near Trinidad, Colorado (in the Raton basin focus area), but no earthquakes with M ≥2.7 were observed in the north Texas or north Arkansas focus areas. Several observations of damaging ground-shaking levels were also recorded in the highest hazard region of Oklahoma. The 2017 forecasted seismic rates are lower in regions of induced activity due to lower rates of earthquakes in 2016 compared with 2015, which may be related to decreased wastewater injection caused by regulatory actions or by a decrease in unconventional oil and gas production. Nevertheless, the 2017 forecasted hazard is still significantly elevated in Oklahoma compared to the hazard calculated from seismicity before 2009.
    Print ISSN: 0895-0695
    Electronic ISSN: 1938-2057
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Seismological Society of America (SSA)
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  • 3
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    Geophysics. Coping with earthquakes induced by fluid injection (2015)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-02-24
    Description: 〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉McGarr, A -- Bekins, B -- Burkardt, N -- Dewey, J -- Earle, P -- Ellsworth, W -- Ge, S -- Hickman, S -- Holland, A -- Majer, E -- Rubinstein, J -- Sheehan, A -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2015 Feb 20;347(6224):830-1. doi: 10.1126/science.aaa0494.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Earthquake Science Center, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA. mcgarr@usgs.gov. ; USGS, National Water Quality Assessment Program, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA. ; USGS, Powell Center, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA. ; USGS, Geologic Hazards Center, Golden, CO 80225, USA. ; U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Earthquake Science Center, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA. ; University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO 80302, USA. ; Oklahoma Geological Survey, Norman, OK 73069, USA. ; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25700505" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Disasters/*prevention & control/*statistics & numerical data ; Earthquakes/*statistics & numerical data ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Safety Management/methods ; United States ; Waste Disposal, Fluid/*methods
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 4
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    Cryo-EM studies of the structure and dynamics of vacuolar-type ATPases (2016)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-07-24
    Description: Electron cryomicroscopy (cryo-EM) has significantly advanced our understanding of molecular structure in biology. Recent innovations in both hardware and software have made cryo-EM a viable alternative for targets that are not amenable to x-ray crystallography or nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Cryo-EM has even become the method of choice in some situations where x-ray crystallography and NMR spectroscopy are possible but where cryo-EM can determine structures at higher resolution or with less time or effort. Rotary adenosine triphosphatases (ATPases) are crucial to the maintenance of cellular homeostasis. These enzymes couple the synthesis or hydrolysis of adenosine triphosphate to the use or production of a transmembrane electrochemical ion gradient, respectively. However, the membrane-embedded nature and conformational heterogeneity of intact rotary ATPases have prevented their high-resolution structural analysis to date. Recent application of cryo-EM methods to the different types of rotary ATPase has led to sudden advances in understanding the structure and function of these enzymes, revealing significant conformational heterogeneity and characteristic transmembrane α helices that are highly tilted with respect to the membrane. In this Review, we will discuss what has been learned recently about rotary ATPase structure and function, with a particular focus on the vacuolar-type ATPases.
    Electronic ISSN: 2375-2548
    Topics: Natural Sciences in General
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 5
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    Preface to the Focus Section on Injection-Induced Seismicity (2015)
    Seismological Society of America (SSA)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-07-02
    Print ISSN: 0895-0695
    Electronic ISSN: 1938-2057
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Seismological Society of America (SSA)
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  • 6
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    Myths and Facts on Wastewater Injection, Hydraulic Fracturing, Enhanced Oil Recovery, and Induced Seismicity (2015)
    Seismological Society of America (SSA)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-07-02
    Print ISSN: 0895-0695
    Electronic ISSN: 1938-2057
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Seismological Society of America (SSA)
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  • 7
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    Interpretation of S Waves Generated by Near-Surface Chemical Explosions at SAFOD (2015)
    Seismological Society of America (SSA)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-12-02
    Description: A series of near-surface chemical explosions conducted at the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) were recorded by high-frequency downhole receiver arrays in separate experiments in November 2003 and May 2005. The 2003 experiment involved ~100 kg shots detonated along a 46-km-long line (Hole–Ryberg line) centered on SAFOD and recorded by 32 three-component geophones in the pilot hole between 0.8 and 2.0 km depth. The 2005 experiment involved ~36 kg shots detonated at Parkfield Area Seismic Observatory (PASO) stations (at ~1–8 km offset) recorded by 80 three-component geophones in the main hole between the surface and 2.4 km depth. These data sample the downgoing seismic wavefield and constrain the shallow velocity and attenuation structure, as well as the first-order characteristics of the source. Using forward modeling on a velocity structure designed for the near field, both observed P - and S -wave energy for the PASO shots are identified with the travel times expected for direct and/or reflected phases. Larger-offset recordings from shots along the Hole–Ryberg line reveal substantial SV and SH energy, especially southwest of SAFOD from the source as indicated by P -to- S amplitude ratios. The generated SV energy is interpreted to arise chiefly from P -to- S conversions at subhorizontal discontinuities. This provides a simple mechanism for often-observed low P -to- S amplitude ratios from nuclear explosions in the far field, as originating from strong near-field wave conversions. Online Material: Figures of observed and synthetic seismogram record sections, snapshots of synthetic wavefields, and models of crustal structure.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Seismological Society of America (SSA)
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  • 8
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    The 2001-Present Induced Earthquake Sequence in the Raton Basin of Northern New Mexico and Southern Colorado (2014)
    Seismological Society of America (SSA)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-10-04
    Description: We investigate the ongoing seismicity in the Raton Basin and find that the deep injection of wastewater from the coal-bed methane field is responsible for inducing the majority of the seismicity since 2001. Many lines of evidence indicate that this earthquake sequence was induced by wastewater injection. First, there was a marked increase in seismicity shortly after major fluid injection began in the Raton Basin in 1999. From 1972 through July 2001, there was one M≥4 earthquake in the Raton Basin, whereas 12 occurred between August 2001 and 2013. The statistical likelihood that such a rate change would occur if earthquakes behaved randomly in time is 3.0%. Moreover, this rate change is limited to the area of industrial activity. Earthquake rates remain low in the surrounding area. Second, the vast majority of the seismicity is within 5 km of active disposal wells and is shallow, ranging between 2 and 8 km depth. The two most carefully studied earthquake sequences in 2001 and 2011 have earthquakes within 2 km of high-volume, high-injection-rate wells. Third, injection wells in the area are commonly very high volume and high rate. Two wells adjacent to the August 2011 M  5.3 earthquake injected about 4.9 million cubic meters of wastewater before the earthquake, more than seven times the amount injected at the Rocky Mountain Arsenal well that caused damaging earthquakes near Denver, Colorado, in the 1960s. The August 2011 M  5.3 event is the second-largest earthquake to date for which there is clear evidence that the earthquake sequence was induced by fluid injection. Online Material: Gutenberg–Richter plots for varying decade-long catalogs.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Seismological Society of America (SSA)
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  • 9
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    Introduction to the Special Issue on the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami (2013)
    Seismological Society of America (SSA)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2013-05-03
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Seismological Society of America (SSA)
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  • 10
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    The Effects of Varying Injection Rates in Osage County, Oklahoma, on the 2016 Mw 5.8 Pawnee Earthquake (2017)
    Seismological Society of America (SSA)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-06-28
    Description: The 2016 M w  5.8 Pawnee earthquake occurred in a region with active wastewater injection into a basal formation group. Prior to the earthquake, fluid injection rates at most wells were relatively steady, but newly collected data show significant increases in injection rate in the years leading up to earthquake. For the same time period, the total volumes of injected wastewater were roughly equivalent between variable-rate and constant-rate wells. To understand the possible influence of these changes in injection, we simulate the variable-rate injection history and its constant-rate equivalent in a layered poroelastic half-space to explore the interplay between pore-pressure effects and poroelastic effects on the fault leading up to the mainshock. In both cases, poroelastic stresses contribute a significant proportion of Coulomb failure stresses on the fault compared to pore-pressure increases alone, but the resulting changes in seismicity rate, calculated using a rate-and-state frictional model, are many times larger when poroelastic effects are included, owing to enhanced stressing rates. In particular, the variable-rate simulation predicts more than an order of magnitude increase in seismicity rate above background rates compared to the constant-rate simulation with equivalent volume. The observed cumulative density of earthquakes prior to the mainshock within 10 km of the injection source exhibits remarkable agreement with seismicity predicted by the variable-rate injection case.
    Print ISSN: 0895-0695
    Electronic ISSN: 1938-2057
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Seismological Society of America (SSA)
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