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  • AGU (American Geophysical Union)  (9)
  • IOP Publishing  (6)
  • Cambridge University Press  (1)
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  • 1
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    Integrated Assessment of Carbon Dioxide Removal (2018)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Earth's Future, 6 (3). pp. 565-582.
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2021-02-08
    Beschreibung: To maintain the chance of keeping the average global temperature increase below 2 degrees C and to limit long-term climate change, removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (carbon dioxide removal, CDR) is becoming increasingly necessary. We analyze optimal and cost-effective climate policies in the dynamic integrated assessment model (IAM) of climate and the economy (DICE2016R) and investigate (1) the utilization of (ocean) CDR under different climate objectives, (2) the sensitivity of policies with respect to carbon cycle feedbacks, and (3) how well carbon cycle feedbacks are captured in the carbon cycle models used in state-of-the-art IAMs. Overall, the carbon cycle model in DICE2016R shows clear improvements compared to its predecessor, DICE2013R, capturing much better long-term dynamics and also oceanic carbon outgassing due to excess oceanic storage of carbon from CDR. However, this comes at the cost of a (too) tight short-term remaining emission budget, limiting the model suitability to analyze low-emission scenarios accurately. With DICE2016R, the compliance with the 2 degrees C goal is no longer feasible without negative emissions via CDR. Overall, the optimal amount of CDR has to take into account (1) the emission substitution effect and (2) compensation for carbon cycle feedbacks.
    Materialart: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: text
    Format: other
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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    ARTIKEL (OCEANREP)
  • 2
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    Indicators and metrics for the assessment of climate engineering (2017)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Earth's Future, 5 (1). pp. 49-58.
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-02-06
    Beschreibung: Selecting appropriate indicators is essential to aggregate the information provided by climate model outputs into a manageable set of relevant metrics on which assessments of climate engineering (CE) can be based. From all the variables potentially available from climate models, indicators need to be selected that are able to inform scientists and society on the development of the Earth system under CE, as well as on possible impacts and side effects of various ways of deploying CE or not. However, the indicators used so far have been largely identical to those used in climate change assessments and do not visibly reflect the fact that indicators for assessing CE (and thus the metrics composed of these indicators) may be different from those used to assess global warming. Until now, there has been little dedicated effort to identifying specific indicators and metrics for assessing CE. We here propose that such an effort should be facilitated by a more decision-oriented approach and an iterative procedure in close interaction between academia, decision makers, and stakeholders. Specifically, synergies and trade-offs between social objectives reflected by individual indicators, as well as decision-relevant uncertainties should be considered in the development of metrics, so that society can take informed decisions about climate policy measures under the impression of the options available, their likely effects and side effects, and the quality of the underlying knowledge base.
    Materialart: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: text
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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    ARTIKEL (OCEANREP)
  • 3
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    Model-based Assessment of the CO2 Sequestration Potential of Coastal Ocean Alkalinization (2017)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Earth's Future, 5 (12). pp. 1252-1266.
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-11-23
    Beschreibung: The potential of Coastal Ocean Alkalinization (COA), a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) climate engineering strategy that chemically increases ocean carbon uptake and storage, is investigated with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. The CDR potential and possible environmental side effects are estimated for various COA deployment scenarios, assuming olivine as the alkalinity source in ice-free coastal waters (about 8.6% of the global ocean's surface area), with dissolution rates being a function of grain size, ambient seawater temperature and pH. Our results indicate that for a large-enough olivine deployment of small-enough grain sizes (10 μm), atmospheric CO2 could be reduced by more than 800 GtC by the year 2100. However, COA with coarse olivine grains (1000 μm) has little CO2 sequestration potential on this time scale. Ambitious CDR with fine olivine grains would increase coastal aragonite saturation Ω to levels well beyond those that are currently observed. When imposing upper limits for aragonite saturation levels (Ωlim) in the grid boxes subject to COA (Ωlim = 3.4 and 9 chosen as examples), COA still has the potential to reduce atmospheric CO2 by 265 GtC (Ωlim=3.4) to 790 GtC (Ωlim=9) and increase ocean carbon storage by 290 Gt (Ωlim=3.4) to 913 Gt (Ωlim=9) by year 2100.
    Materialart: Article , PeerReviewed
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    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 4
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    How Will Earth Respond to Plans for Carbon Dioxide Removal? (2017)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Eos: Earth & Space Science News, 98 .
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2018-05-04
    Beschreibung: First Workshop of the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project; Potsdam, Germany, 20–22 September 2016
    Materialart: Article , NonPeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 5
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    Uncertainty in the response of transpiration to CO2 and implications for climate change (2015)
    IOP Publishing
    In:  Environmental Research Letters, 10 (9). 094001.
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-12
    Beschreibung: While terrestrial precipitation is a societally highly relevant climate variable, there is little consensus among climate models about its projected 21st century changes. An important source of precipitable water over land is plant transpiration. Plants control transpiration by opening and closing their stomata. The sensitivity of this process to increasing CO2 concentrations is uncertain. To assess the impact of this uncertainty on future climate, we perform experiments with an intermediate complexity Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) for a range of model-imposed transpiration-sensitivities to CO2. Changing the sensitivity of transpiration to CO2 causes simulated terrestrial precipitation to change by −10% to +27% by 2100 under a high emission scenario. This study emphasises the importance of an improved assessment of the dynamics of environmental impact on vegetation to better predict future changes of the terrestrial hydrological and carbon cycles.
    Materialart: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: text
    Format: archive
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 6
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    Potential increasing dominance of heterotrophy in the global ocean (2015)
    IOP Publishing
    In:  Environmental Research Letters, 10 (7). 074009.
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2019-08-19
    Beschreibung: Autotrophy is largely resource-limited in the modern ocean. Paleo evidence indicates this was not necessarily the case in warmer climates, and modern observations as well as standard metabolic theory suggest continued ocean warming could shift global ecology towards heterotrophy, thereby reducing autotrophic nutrient limitation. Such a shift would entail strong nutrient recycling in the upper ocean and high rates of net primary production (NPP), yet low carbon export to the deep ocean and sediments. We demonstrate transition towards such a state in the early 22nd century as a response to business-as-usual representative concentration pathway forcing (RCP8.5) in an intermediate complexity Earth system model in three configurations; with and without an explicit calcifier phytoplankton class and calcite ballast model. In all models nutrient regeneration in the near-surface becomes an increasingly important driver of primary production. The near-linear relationship between changes in NPP and global sea surface temperature (SST) found over the 21st century becomes exponential above a 2–4${\;}^{\circ }{\rm{C}}$ global mean SST change. This transition to a more heterotrophic ocean agrees roughly with metabolic theory.
    Materialart: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 7
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    Impacts of sea spray geoengineering on ocean biogeochemistry (2016)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (14). pp. 7600-7608.
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-11-23
    Beschreibung: We used an earth system model of intermediate complexity to study the effects of Solar Radiation Management (SRM) by sea spray geoengineering on ocean biogeochemistry. SRM slightly decreased global ocean net primary productivity (NPP) relative to the control run. The lower temperatures in the SRM run decreased NPP directly but also indirectly increased NPP in some regions due to changes in nutrient availability resulting from changes in ocean stratification and circulation. Reduced light availability had a minor effect on global total NPP but a major regional effect near the nutrient rich upwelling region off the coast of Peru, where light availability is the main limiting factor for phytoplankton growth in our model. Unused nutrients from regions with decreased NPP also fueled NPP elsewhere. In the context of RCP4.5 simulation used here, SRM decreased ocean carbon uptake due to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, seawater chemistry, NPP, temperature, and ocean circulation.
    Materialart: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: text
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 8
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    Could artificial ocean alkalinization protect tropical coral ecosystems from ocean acidification? (2016)
    IOP Publishing
    In:  Environmental Research Letters, 11 (7). Art.Nr. 074008.
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-11-23
    Beschreibung: Artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA) is investigated as a method to mitigate local ocean acidification and protect tropical coral ecosystems during a 21st century high CO2 emission scenario. Employing an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, our implementation of AOA in the Great Barrier Reef, Caribbean Sea and South China Sea regions, shows that alkalinization has the potential to counteract expected 21st century local acidification in regard to both oceanic surface aragonite saturation Ω and surface pCO2. Beyond preventing local acidification, regional AOA, however, results in locally elevated aragonite oversaturation and pCO2 decline. A notable consequence of stopping regional AOA is a rapid shift back to the acidified conditions of the target regions. We conclude that AOA may be a method that could help to keep regional coral ecosystems within saturation states and pCO2 values close to present-day values even in a high-emission scenario and thereby might ‘buy some time’ against the ocean acidification threat, even though regional AOA does not significantly mitigate the warming threat.
    Materialart: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: text
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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    ARTIKEL (OCEANREP)
  • 9
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    Assessing climate impacts and risks of ocean albedo modification in the Arctic (2016)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121 (5). pp. 3044-3057.
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-11-23
    Beschreibung: The ice albedo feedback is one of the key factors of accelerated temperature increase in the high northern latitudes under global warming. This study assesses climate impacts and risks of idealized Arctic Ocean albedo modification (AOAM), a proposed climate engineering method, during transient cli- mate change simulations with varying representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. We find no potential for reversing trends in all assessed Arctic climate metrics under increasing atmospheric CO2 con- centrations. AOAM only yields an initial offset during the first years after implementation. Nevertheless, sea ice loss can be delayed by 25(60) years in the RCP8.5(RCP4.5) scenario and the delayed thawing of perma- frost soils in the AOAM simulations prevents up to 40(32) Pg of carbon from being released by 2100. AOAM initially dampens the decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning and delays the onset of open ocean deep convection in the Nordic Seas under the RCP scenarios. Both these processes cause a subsurface warming signal in the AOAM simulations relative to the default RCP simulations with the potential to desta- bilize Arctic marine gas hydrates. Furthermore, in 2100, the RCP8.5 AOAM simulation diverts more from the 2005–2015 reference state in many climate metrics than the RCP4.5 simulation without AOAM. Considering the demonstrated risks, we conclude that concerning longer time scales, reductions in emissions remain the safest and most effective way to prevent severe changes in the Arctic.
    Materialart: Article , PeerReviewed
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    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 10
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    Asymmetric dynamical ocean responses in warming icehouse and cooling greenhouse climates (2018)
    IOP Publishing
    In:  Environmental Research Letters, 13 (12). Art.Nr. 125011.
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2021-03-18
    Beschreibung: Warm periods in Earth's history tend to cool more slowly than cool periods warm. Carbon cycle feedbacks play a major role in these dynamics, from the slower rate of recovery of ocean carbon export production, to the slower re- establishment of geosphere carbon reservoirs, relative to rates of loss. Here we explore one- differences in how the global ocean takes up and gives up heat and carbon in forced rapid warming and cooling climate scenarios. We force an intermediate- complexity earth system model using two atmospheric CO2 scenarios. A ramp-up (1% per year increase in atmospheric CO2 for 150 years) starts from an average global CO2 concentration of 285 ppm to represent warming of an icehouse climate. A ramp- down (1% per year decrease in atmospheric CO2 for 150 years) starts from an average global CO2 concentration of 1257 ppm to represent cooling of a greenhouse climate. Atmospheric CO2 is then held constant in each simulation and the model is integrated an additional 350 years. The ramp-down simulation shows a weaker response of surface air temperature to changes in radiative forcing relative to the ramp-up scenario. This weaker response is due to a relatively large and fast release of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere. This asymmetry in heat exchange in cooling and warming scenarios exists mainly because of differences in the response of the ocean circulation to forcing. In the ramp-up, increasing stratification and weakening of meridional overturning circulation slows ocean carbon and heat uptake. In the ramp-down, cooling accelerates meridional overturning and deepens vertical mixing, accelerating the release of carbon and heat stored at depth. Though idealized, our experiments offer insight into differences in ocean dynamics in icehouse and greenhouse climate transitions.
    Materialart: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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