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  • 1
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    Climate sensitivity from fluctuation dissipation - Some simple model tests (1980)
    In:  Other Sources
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    Publication Date: 2011-08-18
    Description: Leith has suggested that climatic response to change in external forcing parameters of the climate system may be estimated via the fluctuation-dissipation theorem (FDT). The method, which uses the natural fluctuations of the atmosphere to probe its dynamics, is tested here using a twenty-variable truncation model of the barotropic vorticity equation. Dissipative terms are added to the equations, so that the model is pushed away from the region where it is expected to satisfy the FDT. It is found that, even though the FDT is no longer satisfied in every detail, the FDT continues to provide an excellent estimate of the climatic sensitivity of the model.
    Keywords: METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY
    Type: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences; 37; Aug. 198
    Format: text
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  • 2
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    Sampling problems (1981)
    In:  Other Sources
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    Publication Date: 2011-08-18
    Description: Precipitation estimates from satellites are subject to a number of uncertainties involving design characteristics, satellite positioning, natural variability of precipitation, and the noncontinuous acquisition of data. The sources and sizes of these uncertainties are in need of proper evaluation and estimation. The present sampling and estima-theory seems to be adequate for some measurement problems (e.g., determining precipitation at a point), while others require further theoretical work (e.g., determining the time history of precipitation over large areas).
    Keywords: METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY
    Type: Precipitation Meas. from Space:; 5 p
    Format: text
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  • 3
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    Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions (1982)
    In:  Other Sources
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    Publication Date: 2011-08-18
    Description: Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF's), eigenvectors of the spatial cross-covariance matrix of a meteorological field, are reviewed with special attention given to the necessary weighting factors for gridded data and the sampling errors incurred when too small a sample is available. The geographical shape of an EOF shows large intersample variability when its associated eigenvalue is 'close' to a neighboring one. A rule of thumb indicating when an EOF is likely to be subject to large sampling fluctuations is presented. An explicit example, based on the statistics of the 500 mb geopotential height field, displays large intersample variability in the EOF's for sample sizes of a few hundred independent realizations, a size seldom exceeded by meteorological data sets.
    Keywords: METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY
    Type: Monthly Weather Review; 110; July 198
    Format: text
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  • 4
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    The latitude dependence of the variance of zonally averaged quantities (1982)
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    Publication Date: 2011-08-18
    Description: Geometric characteristics of the spherical earth are shown to be responsible for the increase of variance with latitude of zonally averaged meteorological statistics. An analytic model is constructed to display the effect of a spherical geometry on zonal averages, employing a sphere labeled with radial unit vectors in a real, stochastic field expanded in complex spherical harmonics. The variance of a zonally averaged field is found to be expressible in terms of the spectrum of the vector field of the spherical harmonics. A maximum variance is then located at the poles, and the ratio of the variance to the zonally averaged grid-point variance, weighted by the cosine of the latitude, yields the zonal correlation typical of the latitude. An example is provided for the 500 mb level in the Northern Hemisphere compared to 15 years of data. Variance is determined to increase north of 60 deg latitude.
    Keywords: METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY
    Type: Monthly Weather Review; 110; May 1982
    Format: text
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  • 5
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    Optimal weighting of data to detect climatic change - Application to the carbon dioxide problem (1982)
    In:  Other Sources
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    Publication Date: 2011-08-18
    Description: It is suggested that a weighting of surface temperature data, using information about the expected level of warming in different seasons and geographical regions and statistical information about the amount of natural variability in surface temperature, can improve the chances of early detection of carbon dioxide concentration-induced climatic warming. A preliminary analysis of the optimal weighting method presented suggests that it is 25 per cent more effective in revealing surface warming than the conventional method, in virtue of the fact that 25 per cent more data must conventionally be analyzed in order to arrive at a similar probability of detection. An approximate calculation suggests that the warming ought to have already been detected, if the only sources of significant surface temperature variability had time scales of less than one year.
    Keywords: METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY
    Type: Journal of Geophysical Research; 87; Dec. 20
    Format: text
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