ALBERT

Description: Important questions concerning the resilience of current water management strategies have been raised by the recent volatility of climatic conditions across large parts of western Europe. The last decade, overall, has been exceptionally warm and there have been very large spatial and temporal variations in rainfall, river flows and aquifer recharge rates. Examination of historical rainfall and runoff records for parts of maritime western Europe confirms that there is no close modern parallel to the conditions experienced recently. Some-but far from complete-consistency with a number of favoured climate change scenarios may be recognised. Analyses of recent trends in lengthy rainfall and runoff series for the UK demonstrate significant regional differences and provide conflicting signals especially in relation to trends in catchment losses. Difficulties in reconciling the results from different areas may reflect both real hydroclimatological differences between catchments and variations in the precision of hydrometric time series-uncertainties in the assessment of areal precipitation in upland areas in particular. The dense monitoring networks at Plynlimon together with a rigorous data quality control programme underpins the value of the hydrometric datasets as important benchmarks against which to assess the significance of the very unusual patterns of rainfall and runoff which have characterised the recent past. This paper places the rainfall, runoff and losses data for Plynlimon in the perspective provided by a number of long hydrometric records for maritime western Europe. The representativeness of the Plynlimon base period is considered with particular reference to both the historical stability which typifies the great majority of European hydrometric time series and the recent extension in the recorded range of accumulated rainfall and runoff totals which has been identified in some regions (e.g. western Scotland and Norway). Particular attention is directed to changes in seasonal rainfall and runoff patterns and the recent increases in evaporative demands. Some of the implications for the overall water balance and for water resource management are considered.

Description: The continuing development of computational fluid dynamics is allowing the high resolution study of hydraulic and sediment transport processes but, due to computational complexities, these are rarely applied to areas larger than a reach. Existing approaches, based upon linked cross sections, can give a quasi two-dimensional view, effectively simulating sediment transport for a single river reach. However, a basin represents a whole discrete dynamic system within which channel, floodplain and slope processes operate over a wide range of space and time scales. Here, a cellular automaton (CA) approach has been used to overcome some of these difficulties, in which the landscape is represented as a series of fixed size cells. For every model iteration, each cell acts only in relation to the influence of its immediate neighbours in accordance with appropriate rules. The model presented here takes approximations of existing flow and sediment transport equations, and integrates them, together with slope and floodplain approximations, within a cellular automaton framework. This method has been applied to the basin of Cam Gill Beck (4.2 km2 ) above Starbotton, upper Wharfedale, a tributary of the River Wharfe, North Yorkshire, UK. This approach provides, for the first time, a workable model of the whole basin at a 1 m resolution. Preliminary results show the evolution of bars, braids, terraces and alluvial fans which are similar to those observed in the field, and examples of large and small scale non-linear behaviour which may have considerable implications for future models.

Description: In this paper, the dual-porosity MACRO model has been used to investigate methods of reducing leaching of isoproturon from a structured heavy clay soil. The MACRO model was applied to a pesticide leaching data-set generated from a plot scale experiment on a heavy clay soil at the Oxford University Farm, Wytham, England. The field drain was found to be the most important outflow from the plot in terms of pesticide removal. Therefore, this modelling exercise concentrated on simulating field drain flow. With calibration of field-saturated and micropore saturated hydraulic conductivity, the drain flow hydrographs were simulated during extended periods of above average rainfall, with both the hydrograph shape and peak flows agreeing well. Over the whole field season, the observed drain flow water budget was well simulated. However, the first and second drain flow events after pesticide application were not simulated satisfactorily. This is believed to be due to a poor simulation of evapotranspiration during a period of low rainfall around the pesticide application day. Apart from an initial rapid drop in the observed isoproturon soil residue, the model simulated isoproturon residues during the 100 days after pesticide application reasonably well. Finally, the calibrated model was used to show that changes in agricultural practice (deep ploughing, creating fine consolidated seed beds and organic matter applications) could potentially reduce pesticide leaching to surface waters by up to 60%.

Description: Appropriate representation of hydrological processes within atmospheric General Circulation Models (GCMs) is important with respect to internal model dynamics (e.g. surface feedback effects on atmospheric fluxes, continental runoff production) and to simulation of terrestrial impacts of climate change. However, at the scale of a GCM grid-square, several methodological problems arise. Spatial disaggregation of grid-square average climatological parameters is required in particular to produce appropriate point intensities from average precipitation. Conversely, aggregation of land surface heterogeneity is necessary for grid-scale or catchment scale application. The performance of grid-based hydrological models is evaluated for two large (104km2) UK catchments. Simple schemes, using sub-grid average of individual land use at 40 km scale and with no calibration, perform well at the annual time-scale and, with the addition of a (calibrated) routing component, at the daily and monthly time-scale. Decoupling of hillslope and channel routing does not necessarily improve performance or identifiability. Scale dependence is investigated through application of distribution functions for rainfall and soil moisture at 100 km scale. The results depend on climate, but show interdependence of the representation of sub-grid rainfall and soil moisture distribution. Rainfall distribution is analysed directly using radar rainfall data from the UK and the Arkansas Red River, USA. Among other properties, the scale dependence of spatial coverage upon radar pixel resolution and GCM grid-scale, as well as the serial correlation of coverages are investigated. This leads to a revised methodology for GCM application, as a simple extension of current procedures. A new location-based approach using an image processing technique is then presented, to allow for the preservation of the spatial memory of the process.

Description: A fully time-dependent ionospheric convection model, in which electric potentials are derived by an analytic solution of Laplace's equation, is described. This model has been developed to replace the empirically derived average convection patterns currently used routinely in the Sheffield/SEL/UCL coupled thermosphere/ionosphere/plasmasphere model (CTIP) for modelling disturbed periods. Illustrative studies of such periods indicate that, for the electric field pulsation periods imposed, long-term averages of parameters such as Joule heating and plasma density have significantly different values in a time-dependent model compared to those derived under the same mean conditions in a steady-state model. These differences are indicative of the highly non-linear nature of the processes involved.

Description: In the past the global, fully coupled, time-dependent mathematical model of the Earth's thermosphere/ionosphere/plasmasphere (CTIP) has been unable to reproduce accurately observed values of the maximum plasma frequency, foF2, at extreme geophysical locations such as the Argentine Islands during the summer solstice where the ionosphere remains in sunlight throughout the day. This is probably because the seasonal dependence of thermospheric cooling by 5.3 µm nitric oxide has been neglected and the photodissociation of O2 and heating rate calculations have been over-simplified. Now we have included an up-to-date calculation of the solar EUV and UV thermospheric heating rate, coupled with a new calculation of a diurnally varying O2 photodissociation rate, in the model. Seasonally dependent 5.3 µm nitric oxide cooling is also included. With these important improvements, it is found that model values of foF2 are in substantially better agreement with observation. The height of the F2-peak is reduced throughout the day, but remains within acceptable limits of values derived from observation, except at around 0600 h LT. We also carry out two studies of the sensitivity of the upper atmosphere to changes in the magnitude of nitric oxide cooling and photodissociation rates. We find that hmF2 increases with increased heating, whilst foF2 falls. The converse is true for an increase in the cooling rate. Similarly increasing the photodissociation rate increases both hmF2 and foF2. These changes are explained in terms of changes in the neutral temperature, composition and neutral wind.

Description: The geomagnetic response to the passage of a coronal mass ejection (CME) is studied. The passage of the CME resulted in a storm sudden commencement (SSC) at 2243 UT on March 20 1990 with disturbed magnetic activity during the following 24 h. The auroral, sub-auroral and equatorial magnetic response to the southward turning at 1314 (±5) UT on March 21 and the equatorial response to the southward turning associated with the SSC on 20 March are discussed in terms of existing models. It is found that the auroral and sub-auroral response to the southward turning associated with the SSC is a factor 2 or more quicker than normal due to the shock in the solar wind dynamic pressure. The low-latitude response time to the southward turning, characterised by Dst and the magnetopause current corrected Dst*, is unaffected by the shock. Dst and Dst*, characteristic of the equatorial magnetic field, responded to the 1314 (±5) UT southward turning prior to the first observed substorm expansion phase onset, suggesting that a dayside loading process was responsible for the initial enhancement in the ring current rather than nightside particle injection. The response time of the auroral and sub-auroral magnetic field to the southward turning at 1314 (±5) UT on March 21 is measured at a variety of longitudes and latitudes. The azimuthal propagation velocity of the response to the southward turning varied considerably with latitude, ranging from ~8 km s–1 at 67°N to ~4 km s–1 at 55°N. The southward velocity of the equatorward boundary of the northern polar convection pattern has been measured. This velocity was ~1.2 km s–1 at 1600 MLT, although there was evidence that this may vary at different local times.

Description: We analyse the fluctuations of the electron density and of the magnetic field in the Earth's magnetosheath to identify the waves observed below the proton gyrofrequency. We consider two quiet magnetosheath crossings i.e. 2 days characterized by small-amplitude waves, for which the solar wind dynamic pressure was low. On 2 August 1978 the spacecraft were in the outer magnetosheath. We compare the properties of the observed narrow-band waves with those of the unstable linear wave modes calculated for an homogeneous plasma with Maxwellian electron and bi-Maxwellian (anisotropic) proton and alpha particle distributions. The Alfvén ion cyclotron (AIC) mode appears to be dominant in the data, but there are also density fluctuations nearly in phase with the magnetic fluctuations parallel to the magnetic field. Such a phase relation can be explained neither by the presence of a proton or helium AIC mode nor by the presence of a fast mode in a bi-Maxwellian plasma. We invoke the presence of the helium cut-off mode which is marginally stable in a bi-Maxwellian plasma with α particles: the observed phase relation could be due to a hybrid mode (proton AIC+helium cut-off ) generated by a non-Maxwellian or a non-gyrotropic part of the ion distribution functions in the upstream magnetosheath. On 2 September 1981 the properties of the fluctuations observed in the middle of the magnetosheath can be explained by pure AIC waves generated by protons which have reached a bi-Maxwellian equilibrium. For a given wave mode, the phase difference between B\Vert and the density is sensitive to the shape of the ion and electron distribution functions: it can be a diagnosis tool for natural and simulated plasmas.