ALBERT

Description: In recent years the frequency of high-flow events on the Meuse (northwest Europe) has been relatively great, and flooding has become a major research theme. To date, research has focused on observed discharge records of the last century and simulations of the coming century. However, it is difficult to delineate changes caused by human activities (land use change and greenhouse gas emissions) and natural fluctuations on these timescales. To address this problem we coupled a climate model (ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE) and a hydrological model (STREAM) to simulate daily Meuse discharge in two time-slices: 4000–3000 BP (natural situation), and 1000–2000 AD (includes anthropogenic influence). For 4000–3000 BP the basin is assumed to be almost fully forested; for 1000–2000 AD we reconstructed land use based on historical sources. For 1000–2000 AD the simulated mean annual discharge (260.9 m3 s−1) is significantly higher than for 4000–3000 BP (244.8 m3 s−1), and the frequency of large high-flow events (discharge 〉3000 m3 s−1) is higher (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 65 years). On a millennial timescale almost all of this increase can be ascribed to land use changes (especially deforestation); the effects of climatic change are insignificant. For the 20th Century, the simulated mean discharge (270.0 m3 s−1) is higher than in any other century studied, and is ca. 2.5% higher than in the 19th Century (despite an increase in evapotranspiration). Furthermore, the recurrence time of large high-flow events is almost twice as short as under natural conditions (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 40 years). On this timescale climate change (strong increase in annual and winter precipitation) overwhelmed land use change as the dominant forcing mechanism.

Description: In recent years the frequency of high-flow events on the Meuse (northwest Europe) has been relatively great, and flooding has become a major research theme. To date, research has focused on observed discharge records of the last century and simulations of the coming century. However, it is difficult to delineate changes caused by human activities (land use change and greenhouse gas emissions) and natural fluctuations on these timescales. To address this problem we coupled a climate model (ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE) and a hydrological model (STREAM) to simulate daily Meuse discharge in two time-slices: 4000–3000 BP (natural situation), and 1000–2000 AD (includes anthropogenic influence). For 4000–3000 BP the basin is assumed to be almost fully forested; for 1000–2000 AD we reconstructed land use based on historical sources. For 1000–2000 AD the simulated mean annual discharge (260.9 m³ s−1) is significantly higher than for 4000–3000 BP (244.8 m³ s−1), and the frequency of large high-flow events (discharge 〉3000 m³ s−1) is higher (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 65 years). On a millennial timescale almost all of this increase can be ascribed to land use changes (especially deforestation); the effects of climatic change are insignificant. For the 20th Century, the simulated mean discharge (270.0 m³ s−1) is higher than in any other century studied, and is ca. 2.5% higher than in the 19th Century (despite an increase in evapotranspiration). Furthermore, the recurrence time of large high-flow events is almost twice as short as under natural conditions (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 40 years). On this timescale climate change (strong increase in annual and winter precipitation) overwhelmed land use change as the dominant forcing mechanism.

Description: TOPO-EUROPE addresses the 4-D topographic evolution of the orogens and intra-plate regions of Europe through a multidisciplinary approach linking geology, geophysics, geodesy and geotechnology. TOPO-EUROPE integrates monitoring, imaging, reconstruction and modelling of the interplay between processes controlling continental topography and related natural hazards. Until now, research on neotectonics and related topography development of orogens and intra-plate regions has received little attention. TOPO-EUROPE initiates a number of novel studies on the quantification of rates of vertical motions, related tectonically controlled river evolution and land subsidence in carefully selected natural laboratories in Europe. From orogen through platform to continental margin, these natural laboratories include the Alps/Carpathians–Pannonian Basin System, the West and Central European Platform, the Apennines–Aegean–Anatolian region, the Iberian Peninsula, the Scandinavian Continental Margin, the East-European Platform, and the Caucasus–Levant area. TOPO-EUROPE integrates European research facilities and know-how essential to advance the understanding of the role of topography in Environmental Earth System Dynamics. The principal objective of the network is twofold. Namely, to integrate national research programs into a common European network and, furthermore, to integrate activities among TOPO-EUROPE institutes and participants. Key objectives are to provide an interdisciplinary forum to share knowledge and information in the field of the neotectonic and topographic evolution of Europe, to promote and encourage multidisciplinary research on a truly European scale, to increase mobility of scientists and to train young scientists. This paper provides an overview of the state-of-the-art of continental topography research, and of the challenges to TOPO-EUROPE researchers in the targeted natural laboratories

Description: Research on neotectonics and related seismicity has hitherto been mostly focused on active plate boundaries that are characterized by generally high levels of earthquake activity. Current seismic hazard estimates for intraplate domains are mainly based on probabilistic analyses of historical and instrumental earthquake catalogues. The accuracy of such hazard estimates is limited by the fact that available catalogues are restricted to a few hundred years, which, on geological time scales, is insignificant and not suitable for the assessment of tectonic processes controlling the observed earthquake activity. More reliable hazard prediction requires access to high quality data sets covering a geologically significant time span in order to obtain a better understanding of processes controlling on-going intraplate deformation. The Alpine Orogen and the intraplate sedimentary basins and rifts in its northern foreland are associated with a much higher level of neotectonic activity than hitherto assumed. Seismicity and stress indicator data, combined with geodetic and geomorphologic observations, demonstrate that deformation of the Northern Alpine foreland is still on-going and will continue in the future. This has major implications for the assessment of natural hazards and the environmental degradation potential of this densely populated area. We examine relationships between deeper lithospheric processes, neotectonics and surface processes in the northern Alpine Foreland, and their implications for tectonically induced topography. For the Environmental Tectonics Project (ENTEC), the Upper and Lower Rhine Graben (URG and LRG) and the Vienna Basin (VB) were selected as natural laboratories. The Vienna Basin developed during the middle Miocene as a sinistral pull-apart structure on top of the East Alpine nappe stack, whereas the Upper and Lower Rhine grabens are typical intracontinental rifts. The Upper Rhine Graben opened during its Late Eocene and Oligocene initial rifting phase by nearly orthogonal crustal extension, whereas its Neogene evolution was controlled by oblique extension. Seismic tomography suggests that during extension the mantle-lithosphere was partially decoupled from the upper crust at the level of the lower crust. However, whole lithospheric folding controlled the mid-Miocene to Pliocene uplift of the Vosges–Black Forest Arch, whereas thermal thinning of the mantle–lithosphere above a mantle plume contributed substantially to the past and present uplift of the Rhenish Massif. By contrast, oblique crustal extension, controlling the late Oligocene initial subsidence stage of the Lower Rhine Graben, gave way to orthogonal extension at the transition to the Neogene. The ENTEC Project integrated geological, geophysical, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological data and developed dynamic models to quantify the societal impact of neotectonics in areas hosting major urban and industrial activity concentrations. The response of Europe's intraplate lithosphere to Late Neogene compressional stresses depends largely on its thermo-mechanical structure, which, in turn, controls vertical motions, topography evolution and related surface processes.

Description: TOPO-EUROPE addresses the 4-D topographic evolution of the orogens and intra-plate regions of Europe through a multidisciplinary approach linking geology, geophysics, geodesy and geotechnology. TOPO-EUROPE integrates monitoring, imaging, reconstruction and modelling of the interplay between processes controlling continental topography and related natural hazards. Until now, research on neotectonics and related topography development of orogens and intra-plate regions has received little attention. TOPO-EUROPE initiates a number of novel studies on the quantification of rates of vertical motions, related tectonically controlled river evolution and land subsidence in carefully selected natural laboratories in Europe. From orogen through platform to continental margin, these natural laboratories include the Alps/Carpathians–Pannonian Basin System, the West and Central European Platform, the Apennines–Aegean–Anatolian region, the Iberian Peninsula, the Scandinavian Continental Margin, the East-European Platform, and the Caucasus–Levant area. TOPO-EUROPE integrates European research facilities and know-how essential to advance the understanding of the role of topography in Environmental Earth System Dynamics. The principal objective of the network is twofold. Namely, to integrate national research programs into a common European network and, furthermore, to integrate activities among TOPO-EUROPE institutes and participants. Key objectives are to provide an interdisciplinary forum to share knowledge and information in the field of the neotectonic and topographic evolution of Europe, to promote and encourage multidisciplinary research on a truly European scale, to increase mobility of scientists and to train young scientists. This paper provides an overview of the state-of-the-art of continental topography research, and of the challenges to TOPO-EUROPE researchers in the targeted natural laboratories.