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  • 1
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-04
    Beschreibung: Reliable forecasting of the next eruption at Vesuvius is the main scientific ingredient to define effective strategies to reduce volcanic risk in one of the most dangerous volcanic areas around the world. In this paper, we apply a recently developed probabilistic code for eruption forecasting to new and independent historical data related to the pre-eruptive phase of the 1631 eruption. The results obtained point out three main issues: 1) the importance of “cold” historical data (according to Guidoboni 2008) related to pre-eruptive phases for evaluating forecasting tools and possibly refining them; 2) the BET_EF code implemented for Vesuvius would have forecast the 1631 eruption satisfactorily, marking different stages of the pre-eruptive phase; 3) the code shows that pre-eruptive signals that significantly increase the probability of eruption were likely detected more than two months before the event
    Beschreibung: In press
    Beschreibung: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: open
    Schlagwort(e): cold historical data ; Vesuvius ; 1631 eruption ; BET_EF code ; eruption forecasting ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-04
    Beschreibung: The purpose of this report is to discuss in detail the importance and prerogatives of quantitative volcanic hazard assessment and to describe the main features of a Bayesian model designed to achieve this goal. Ideas, models and results come out from the work made in the framework of the INGV-DPC V4 project, and partially from the application of the technique to Campi Flegrei (V3_2) and Vesuvius (V3_4). Here, we examine in depth the practical and philosophical implications of the approach, and report only a brief summary of the technical details that can be found on the cited literature.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 77-89
    Beschreibung: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Beschreibung: open
    Schlagwort(e): Bayesian Event Tree ; Probabilistic volcanic hazard ; Probabilistic eruption Forecasting ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: book chapter
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
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