Publication Date:
2017-04-04
Description:
This study investigates the possible changes that the greenhouse global warming might generate in
the characteristics of the tropical cyclones (TCs).
The analysis has been performed using climate scenario simulations carried out with a fully coupled
high–resolution global general circulation model. The capability of the model to reproduce a reasonably
realistic TC climatology has been assessed by comparing the model results from a simulation of the XX
Century with observations. The model appears to be able to simulate tropical cyclone-like vortices with
many features similar to the observed TCs. The simulated TC activity exhibits realistic geographical
distribution, seasonal modulation and interannual variability, suggesting that the model is able to reproduce
the major basic mechanisms that link the TC occurrence with the large scale circulation.
The results from the climate scenarios reveal a substantial general reduction of the TC frequency
when the atmospheric CO2 concentration is doubled and quadrupled. The reduction appears particularly
evident for the tropical north west Pacific (NWP) and north Atlantic (ATL). In the NWP the weaker TC
activity seems to be associated with a reduced amount of convective instabilities. In the ATL region the
weaker TC activity seems to be due to both the increased stability of the atmosphere and a stronger vertical
wind shear.
Despite the generally reduced TC activity, there is evidence of increased rainfall associated with the
simulated cyclones. The tropical cyclone-ocean interaction is captured by the model and the impact of the
ocean response to the storm forcing is analyzed under different radiative forcing conditions.
Description:
AOGS
Description:
Published
Description:
Pusan - KOREA
Description:
3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
Description:
open
Keywords:
Tropical Cyclones
;
Climate Change
;
General Circulation Model
;
01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
Oral presentation
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