ALBERT

Description: The effect of Land Use Change and Forestry (LUCF) on terrestrial carbon fluxes can be regarded as a carbon credit or debit under the UNFCCC, but scientific uncertainty in the estimates for LUCF remains large. Here, we assess the LUCF estimates by examining a variety of models of different types with different land cover change maps in the 1990s. Annual carbon pools and their changes are separated into different components for separate geographical regions, while annual land cover change areas and carbon fluxes are disaggregated into different LUCF activities and the biospheric response due to CO2 fertilization and climate change. We developed a consolidated estimate of the terrestrial carbon fluxes that combines book-keeping models with process-based biogeochemical models and inventory estimates and yields an estimate of the global terrestrial carbon flux that is within the uncertainty range developed in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. We examined the USA and Brazil as case studies in order to assess the cause of differences from the UNFCCC reported carbon fluxes. Major differences in the litter and soil organic matter components are found for the USA. Differences in Brazil result from assumptions about the LUC for agricultural purposes. The effects of CO2 fertilization and climate change also vary significantly in Brazil. Our consolidated estimate shows that the small sink in Latin America is within the uncertainty range from inverse models, but that the sink in the USA is significantly smaller than the inverse models estimates. Because there are different sources of errors at the country level, there is no easy reconciliation of different estimates of carbon fluxes at the global level. Clearly, further work is required to develop data sets for historical land cover change areas and models of biogeochemical changes for an accurate representation of carbon uptake or emissions due to LUC.

Description: An understanding of the regional contributions and trends of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is critical to design mitigation strategies aimed at stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gases. Here we report CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels and land use change in Africa for various time periods. Africa was responsible for an average of 500 Tg C y−1 for the period 2000–2005. These emissions resulted from the combustion of fossil fuels (260 Tg C y−1) and land use change (240 Tg C y−1). Over this period, the African share of global emissions from land use change was 17%. For 2005, the last year reported in this study, African fossil fuel emissions were 285 Tg C accounting for 3.7% of the global emissions. The 2000–2005 growth rate in African fossil fuel emissions was 3.2% y−1, very close to the global average. Fossil fuel emissions per capita in Africa are among the lowest in the world, at 0.32 t C y−1 compared to the global average of 1.2 t C y−1. The average amount of carbon (C) emitted as CO2 to produce 1 US{$} of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Africa was 187 g C/$ in 2005, close to the world average of 199 g C/$. With the fastest population growth in the world and rising per capita GDP, Africa is likely to increase its share of global emissions over the coming decades although emissions from Africa will remain low compared to other continents.

Description: An understanding of the regional contributions and trends of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is critical to design mitigation strategies aimed at stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gases. Here we report CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels and land use change in Africa for various time periods. Africa was responsible for an average of 500 TgC y−1 for the period 2000–2005. These emissions resulted from the combustion of fossil fuels (260 TgC y−1) and land use change (240 TgC y−1). Over this period, the African share of global emissions from land use change was 17%. For 2005, the last year reported in this study, African fossil fuel emissions were 285 TgC accounting for 3.7% of the global emissions. The 2000–2005 growth rate in African fossil fuel emissions was 3.2% y−1, very close to the global average. Fossil fuel emissions per capita in Africa are among the lowest in the world, at 0.32 tC y−1 compared to the global average of 1.2 tC y−1. The average amount of carbon (C) emitted as CO2 to produce 1 US $ of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Africa in 2005 was 187 gC/$, close to the world average of 199 gC/$. With the fastest population growth in the world and rising per capita GDP, Africa is likely to increase its share of global emissions over the coming decades although emissions from Africa will remain low compared to other continents.

Description: The effect of Land Use Change and Forestry (LUCF) on terrestrial carbon fluxes can be regarded as a carbon credit or debit under the UNFCCC, but scientific uncertainty in the estimates for LUCF remains large. Here, we assess the LUCF estimates by examining a variety of models of different types with different land cover change maps in the 1990s. Annual carbon pools and their changes are separated into different components for separate geographical regions, while annual land cover change areas and carbon fluxes are disaggregated into different LUCF activities and the biospheric response due to CO2 fertilization and climate change. We developed a consolidated estimate of the terrestrial carbon fluxes that combines book-keeping models with process-based biogeochemical models and inventory estimates and yields an estimate of the global terrestrial carbon flux that is within the uncertainty range developed in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. We examined the USA and Brazil as case studies in order to assess the cause of differences from the UNFCCC reported carbon fluxes. Major differences in the litter and soil organic matter components are found for the USA. Differences in Brazil result from assumptions about the LUC for agricultural purposes. The effects of CO2 fertilization and climate change also vary significantly in Brazil. Our consolidated estimate shows that the small sink in Latin America is within the uncertainty range from inverse models, but that the sink in the USA is significantly smaller than the inverse models estimates. Because there are different sources of errors at the country level, there is no easy reconciliation of different estimates of carbon fluxes at the global level. Clearly, further work is required to develop data sets for historical land cover change areas and models of biogeochemical changes for an accurate representation of carbon uptake or emissions due to LUC.