ALBERT

Description: We use the stratospheric/tropospheric chemical transport model MOZART-3 to study the distribution and transport of stratospheric O3 during the exceptionally intense stratospheric sudden warming event observed in January 2004 in the Northern polar region. A comparison between observations by the MIPAS instrument on board the ENVISAT spacecraft and model simulations shows that the evolution of the polar vortex and of planetary waves during the warming event plays an important role in controlling the spatial distribution of stratospheric ozone and the downward ozone flux in the lower stratospheric and upper tropospheric regions. Compared to the situation during the winter of 2002–2003, lower ozone concentrations were transported from the polar regions (polar vortex) to mid-latitudes, leading to exceptional large areas of low ozone concentrations outside the polar vortex and "low-ozone pockets" in the middle stratosphere. The unusually long-lasting stratospheric westward winds (easterlies) during the 2003–2004 event greatly restricted the upward propagation of planetary waves, causing the weak transport of ozone-rich air originated from low latitudes to the middle polar stratosphere (10 hPa). The restricted wave activities led to a reduced downward ozone flux from the lower stratosphere (LS) to the upper troposphere (UT), especially in East Asia. Consequently, in this region during wintertime (December and January), the column ozone between 100 and 300 hPa was about 10% lower during the 2003–2004 event compared to the situation in 2002–2003.

Description: We have used total ozone columns and vertical profiles of ozone and temperature from 11 coupled Chemistry-Climate Models (CCMs) to project future solar ultraviolet radiation levels at the surface in the 21st century. The CCM simulations are used as input to a radiative transfer model for the simulation of the corresponding future UV irradiance levels under cloud free conditions, presented here as time series of monthly erythemal irradiance received at the surface during local noon covering the period 1960 to 2100. Starting from the first decade of the 21st century, the surface erythemal irradiance decreases globally as a result of the projected ozone recovery, at rates which are larger in the first half of the 21st century, compared to the period up to 2100. The magnitude of these decreases varies with latitude and is more pronounced at areas where ozone has been depleted most considerably after 1980. Over midlatitudes surface erythemal irradiance decreases between 5 and 15% by 2100 relative to 2000, while at the southern high latitudes these changes are twice as much. Climate change may affect future cloudiness, surface reflectivity and tropospheric aerosol loading, the effects of which are not included in this study. Therefore, the actual changes in future UV radiation are likely to change accordingly in the areas affected.

Description: The representation of the Tropical Tropopause Layer in 13 different Chemistry Climate Models designed to represent the stratosphere is analyzed. Simulations for 1960–present and 1980–2100 are analyzed and compared to reanalysis model output. Results indicate that the models are able to reproduce the basic structure of the TTL. There is a large spread in cold point tropopause temperatures that may be linked to variation in TTL ozone values. The models are generally able to reproduce historical trends in tropopause pressure obtained from reanalysis products. Simulated historical trends in cold point tropopause temperatures and in the meridional extent of the TTL are not consistent across models. The pressure of both the tropical tropopause and the level of main convective outflow appear to be decreasing (increasing altitude) in historical runs. Similar trends are seen in the future. Models consistently predict decreasing tropopause and convective outflow pressure, by several hPa/decade. Tropical cold point temperatures increase by 0.2 K/decade. This indicates that tropospheric warming dominates stratospheric cooling at the tropical tropopause. Stratospheric water vapor at 100 hPa increases by up to 0.5–1 ppmv by 2100. This is less than implied directly by the temperature and methane increases, highlighting the correlation of tropopause temperatures with stratospheric water vapor, but also the complex nature of TTL transport.

Description: Ice supersaturation is important for understanding condensation in the upper troposphere. Many general circulation models however do not permit supersaturation. In this study, a coupled chemistry climate model, the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), is modified to include supersaturation for the ice phase. Rather than a study of a detailed parameterization of supersaturation, the study is intended as a sensitivity experiment, to understand the potential impact of supersaturation, and of expected changes to stratospheric water vapor, on climate and chemistry. High clouds decrease and water vapor in the stratosphere increases at a similar rate to the prescribed supersaturation (20% supersaturation increases water vapor by nearly 20%). The stratospheric Brewer-Dobson circulation slows at high southern latitudes, consistent with slight changes in temperature likely induced by changes to cloud radiative forcing. The cloud changes also cause an increase in the seasonal cycle of near tropopause temperatures, increasing them in boreal summer over boreal winter. There are also impacts on chemistry, with small increases in ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere driven by enhanced production. The radiative impact of changing water vapor is dominated by the reduction in cloud forcing associated with fewer clouds (~+0.6 Wm−2) with a small component likely from the radiative effect (greenhouse trapping) of the extra water vapor (~+0.2 Wm−2), consistent with previous work. Representing supersaturation is thus important, and changes to supersaturation resulting from changes in aerosol loading for example, might have a modest impact on global radiative forcing, mostly through changes to clouds. There is no evidence of a strong impact of water vapor on tropical tropopause temperatures.

Description: We have estimated changes in surface solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation under cloud free conditions in the 21st century based on simulations of 11 coupled Chemistry-Climate Models (CCMs). The total ozone columns and vertical profiles of ozone and temperature projected from CCMs were used as input to a radiative transfer model in order to calculate the corresponding erythemal irradiance levels. Time series of monthly erythemal irradiance received at the surface during local noon are presented for the period 1960 to 2100. Starting from the first decade of the 21st century, the surface erythemal irradiance decreases globally as a result of the projected stratospheric ozone recovery at rates that are larger in the first half of the 21st century and smaller towards its end. This decreasing tendency varies with latitude, being more pronounced over areas where stratospheric ozone has been depleted the most after 1980. Between 2000 and 2100 surface erythemal irradiance is projected to decrease over midlatitudes by 5 to 15%, while at the southern high latitudes the decrease is twice as much. In this study we have not included effects from changes in cloudiness, surface reflectivity and tropospheric aerosol loading, which will likely be affected in the future due to climate change. Consequently, over some areas the actual changes in future UV radiation may be different depending on the evolution of these parameters.

Description: We use the stratospheric/tropospheric chemical transport model MOZART-3 to study the distribution and transport of stratospheric O3 during the remarkable stratospheric sudden warming event observed in January 2004 in the northern polar region. A comparison between observations by the MIPAS instrument on board the ENVISAT spacecraft and model simulations shows that the evolution of the polar vortex and of planetary waves during the warming event plays an important role in controlling the spatial distribution of stratospheric ozone and the downward ozone flux in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere (UTLS) region. Compared to the situation during the winter of 2002–2003, lower ozone concentrations were transported from the polar region to mid-latitudes, leading to exceptional large areas of low ozone concentrations outside the polar vortex and "low-ozone pockets" in the middle stratosphere. The unusually long-lasting stratospheric westward winds (easterlies) during the 2003–2004 event greatly restricted the upward propagation of planetary waves, causing the weak transport of ozone-rich air originated from low latitudes to the middle polar stratosphere (30 km). The restricted wave activities led to a reduced extratropical downward ozone flux from the lower stratosphere to the lowermost stratosphere (or from the "overworld" into the "middleworld"), especially over East Asia. Consequently, during wintertime (15 December~15 February), the total downward ozone transport on 100 hPa surface by the descending branches of Brewer-Dobson circulation over this region was about 10% lower during the 2003–2004 event. Meanwhile, the extratropical total cross-tropopause ozone flux (CTOF) was also reduced by ~25%. Compared to the cold 1999–2000 winter, the vertical CTOF in high latitudes (60°~90° N) increased more than 10 times during the two warming winters, while the vertical CTOF in mid-latitudes (30°~60° N) decreased by 20~40%. Moreover, during the two warming winters, the meridional CTOF caused by the isentropic transport associating with the enhanced wave activity also increased and played an important role in the total extratropical CTOF budget.

Description: The representation of the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) in 13 different Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) designed to represent the stratosphere is analyzed. Simulations for 1960–2005 and 1980–2100 are analyzed. Simulations for 1960–2005 are compared to reanalysis model output. CCMs are able to reproduce the basic structure of the TTL. There is a large (10 K) spread in annual mean tropical cold point tropopause temperatures. CCMs are able to reproduce historical trends in tropopause pressure obtained from reanalysis products. Simulated historical trends in cold point tropopause temperatures are not consistent across models or reanalyses. The pressure of both the tropical tropopause and the level of main convective outflow appear to have decreased (increased altitude) in historical runs as well as in reanalyses. Decreasing pressure trends in the tropical tropopause and level of main convective outflow are also seen in the future. Models consistently predict decreasing tropopause and convective outflow pressure, by several hPa/decade. Tropical cold point temperatures are projected to increase by 0.09 K/decade. Tropopause anomalies are highly correlated with tropical surface temperature anomalies and with tropopause level ozone anomalies, less so with stratospheric temperature anomalies. Simulated stratospheric water vapor at 90 hPa increases by up to 0.5–1 ppmv by 2100. The result is consistent with the simulated increase in temperature, highlighting the correlation of tropopause temperatures with stratospheric water vapor.

Description: This paper introduces the three-dimensional Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), which treats atmospheric dynamics, radiation, and chemistry interactively for the height range from the earth’s surface to the thermosphere (approximately 250 km). It is based on the latest version of the ECHAM atmospheric general circulation model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, which is extended to include important radiative and dynamical processes of the upper atmosphere and is coupled to a chemistry module containing 48 compounds. The model is applied to study the effects of natural and anthropogenic climate forcing on the atmosphere, represented, on the one hand, by the 11-yr solar cycle and, on the other hand, by a doubling of the present-day concentration of carbon dioxide. The numerical experiments are analyzed with the focus on the effects on temperature and chemical composition in the mesopause region. Results include a temperature response to the solar cycle by 2 to 10 K in the mesopause region with the largest values occurring slightly above the summer mesopause. Ozone in the secondary maximum increases by up to 20% for solar maximum conditions. Changes in winds are in general small. In the case of a doubling of carbon dioxide the simulation indicates a cooling of the atmosphere everywhere above the tropopause but by the smallest values around the mesopause. It is shown that the temperature response up to the mesopause is strongly influenced by changes in dynamics. During Northern Hemisphere summer, dynamical processes alone would lead to an almost global warming of up to 3 K in the uppermost mesosphere.

Description: Ice supersaturation is important for understanding condensation in the upper troposphere. Most general circulation models however do not permit supersaturation. In this study, a coupled chemistry climate model, the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), is modified to include supersaturation for the ice phase. The study is intended as a sensitivity experiment, to understand the potential impact of supersaturation, and of expected changes to stratospheric water vapor, on climate and chemistry. Results indicate that high clouds decrease and water vapor in the stratosphere increases nearly linearly with supersaturation (20% supersaturation increases water vapor by nearly 20%). The stratospheric Brewer-Dobson circulation slows at high southern latitudes, consistent with slight changes in temperature likely induced by changes to cloud radiative forcing. The cloud changes also cause an increase in the seasonal cycle of near tropopause temperatures, increasing them in boreal summer over boreal winter. There are also impacts on chemistry, with small increases in ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere driven by enhanced production. The radiative impact of changing water vapor is dominated by the reduction in cloud forcing associated with fewer clouds (~+0.6 Wm−2) with a small component likely from radiative effect (greenhouse trapping) of the extra water vapor (~+0.2 Wm−2), consistent with previous work. Representing supersaturation is thus important, and changes to supersaturation resulting from changes in aerosol loading for example, might have a modest impact on global radiative forcing, mostly through changes to clouds. We do not see evidence of a strong impact of water vapor on tropical tropopause temperatures.

Description: The Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4) is an offline global chemical transport model particularly suited for studies of the troposphere. The updates of the model from its previous version MOZART-2 are described, including an expansion of the chemical mechanism to include more detailed hydrocarbon chemistry and bulk aerosols. Online calculations of a number of processes, such as dry deposition, emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes and photolysis frequencies, are now included. Results from an eight-year simulation (2000–2007) are presented and evaluated. The MOZART-4 source code and standard input files are available for download from the NCAR Community Data Portal (http://cdp.ucar.edu).