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  • American Meteorological Society  (24)
  • Cambridge University Press
  • 2005-2009  (28)
  • 1955-1959  (1)
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2008-06-01
    Description: A three-dimensional ocean general circulation model is used to study the response of idealized ice shelves to a series of ocean-warming scenarios. The model predicts that the total ice shelf basal melt increases quadratically as the ocean offshore of the ice front warms. This occurs because the melt rate is proportional to the product of ocean flow speed and temperature in the mixed layer directly beneath the ice shelf, both of which are found to increase linearly with ocean warming. The behavior of this complex primitive equation model can be described surprisingly well with recourse to an idealized reduced system of equations, and it is shown that this system supports a melt rate response to warming that is generally quadratic in nature. This study confirms and unifies several previous examinations of the relation between melt rate and ocean temperature but disagrees with other results, particularly the claim that a single melt rate sensitivity to warming is universally valid. The hypothesized warming does not necessarily require a heat input to the ocean, as warmer waters (or larger volumes of “warm” water) may reach ice shelves purely through a shift in ocean circulation. Since ice shelves link the Antarctic Ice Sheet to the climate of the Southern Ocean, this finding of an above-linear rise in ice shelf mass loss as the ocean steadily warms is of significant importance to understanding ice sheet evolution and sea level rise.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2006-06-01
    Description: The sea ice simulation of the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) T42-gx1 and T85-gx1 control simulations is presented and the influence of the parameterized sea ice thickness distribution (ITD) on polar climate conditions is examined. This includes an analysis of the change in mean climate conditions and simulated sea ice feedbacks when an ITD is included. It is found that including a representation of the subgrid-scale ITD results in larger ice growth rates and thicker sea ice. These larger growth rates represent a higher heat loss from the ocean ice column to the atmosphere, resulting in warmer surface conditions. Ocean circulation, most notably in the Southern Hemisphere, is also modified by the ITD because of the influence of enhanced high-latitude ice formation on the ocean buoyancy flux and resulting deep water formation. Changes in atmospheric circulation also result, again most notably in the Southern Hemisphere. There are indications that the ITD also modifies simulated sea ice–related feedbacks. In regions of similar ice thickness, the surface albedo changes at 2XCO2 conditions are larger when an ITD is included, suggesting an enhanced surface albedo feedback. The presence of an ITD also modifies the ice thickness–ice strength relationship and the ice thickness–ice growth rate relationship, both of which represent negative feedbacks on ice thickness. The net influence of the ITD on polar climate sensitivity and variability results from the interaction of these and other complex feedback processes.
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2007-06-15
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2005-09-01
    Description: Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain natural climate variability in the Arctic. These include processes related to the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO), anticyclonic/cyclonic regimes, changes in the oceanic and atmospheric North Atlantic–Arctic exchange, and changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. After a brief critical review, the influence and interrelation of the above processes in a long climate integration of the Community Climate System Model, version 2 (CCSM2) are examined. The analysis is based on the time series of surface air temperature integrated northward of 70°N, which serves as a useful proxy for general Arctic climate conditions. This gives a large-scale view of the evolution of Arctic climate. It is found that changes in oceanic exchange and heat transport in the Barents Sea dominate in forcing the Arctic surface air temperature variability in CCSM2. Changes in atmospheric circulation are consistent with a wind forcing of this variability, while changes in the deep overturning circulation in the Atlantic are more weakly related in CCSM2. Over some time periods, the NAO/AO is significantly related to these changes in Arctic climate conditions. However, this is not robust over longer time scales.
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2005-08-01
    Description: A coupled global climate model is used to evaluate processes that determine the equilibrium location of the sea-ice edge and its climatological annual cycle. The extent to which the wintertime ice edge departs from a symmetric ring around either pole depends primarily on coastlines, ice motion, and the melt rate at the ice–ocean interface. At any location the principal drivers of the oceanic heat flux that melts sea ice are absorbed solar radiation and the convergence of heat transported by ocean currents. The distance between the ice edge and the pole and the magnitude of the ocean heat flux convergence at the ice edge are inversely related. The chief exception to this rule is in the East Greenland Current, where the ocean heat flux convergence just east of the ice edge is relatively high but ice survives due to its swift southward motion and the protection of the cold southward-flowing surface water. In regions where the ice edge extends relatively far equatorward, absorbed solar radiation is the largest component of the ocean energy budget, and the large seasonal range of insolation causes the ice edge to traverse a large distance. In contrast, at relatively high latitudes, the ocean heat flux convergence is the largest component and it has a relatively small annual range, so the ice edge traverses a much smaller distance there. When the model is subject to increased CO2 forcing up to twice preindustrial levels, the ocean heat flux convergence weakens near the ice edge in most places. This weakening reduces the heat flux from the ocean to the base of the ice and tends to offset the effects of increased radiative forcing at the ice surface, so the ice edge retreats less than it would otherwise.
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2006-06-01
    Description: Two significant changes in ocean heat uptake that occur in the vicinity of sea ice cover in response to increasing CO2 are investigated with Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3): a deep warming below ∼500 m and extending down several kilometers in the Southern Ocean and warming in a ∼200-m layer just below the surface in the Arctic Ocean. Ocean heat uptake caused by sea ice retreat is isolated by running the model with the sea ice albedo reduced artificially alone. This integration has a climate response with strong ocean heat uptake in the Southern Ocean and modest ocean heat uptake in the subsurface Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Ocean warming results from enhanced ocean heat transport from the northern North Atlantic. At the time of CO2 doubling, about 1/3 of the heat transport anomaly results from advection of anomalously warm water and 2/3 results from strengthened inflow. At the same time the overturning circulation is strengthened in the northern North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. Wind stress changes cannot explain the circulation changes, which instead appear related to strengthened convection along the Siberian shelves. Deep ocean warming in the Southern Ocean is initiated by weakened convection, which is mainly a result of surface freshening through altered sea ice and ocean freshwater transport. Below about 500 m, changes in convection reduce the vertical and meridional temperature gradients in the Southern Ocean, which significantly reduce isopycnal diffusion of heat upward around Antarctica. The geometry of the sea ice cover and its influence on convection have a strong influence on ocean temperature gradients, making sea ice an important player in deep ocean heat uptake in the Southern Ocean.
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2006-08-01
    Description: Processes in the climate system that can either amplify or dampen the climate response to an external perturbation are referred to as climate feedbacks. Climate sensitivity estimates depend critically on radiative feedbacks associated with water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, snow, and sea ice, and global estimates of these feedbacks differ among general circulation models. By reviewing recent observational, numerical, and theoretical studies, this paper shows that there has been progress since the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in (i) the understanding of the physical mechanisms involved in these feedbacks, (ii) the interpretation of intermodel differences in global estimates of these feedbacks, and (iii) the development of methodologies of evaluation of these feedbacks (or of some components) using observations. This suggests that continuing developments in climate feedback research will progressively help make it possible to constrain the GCMs’ range of climate feedbacks and climate sensitivity through an ensemble of diagnostics based on physical understanding and observations.
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2007-12-15
    Description: The granular sea ice model (GRAN) from Tremblay and Mysak is converted from Cartesian to spherical coordinates. In this conversion, the metric terms in the divergence of the deviatoric stress and in the strain rates are included. As an application, the GRAN is coupled to the global Earth System Climate Model from the University of Victoria. The sea ice model is validated against standard datasets. The sea ice volume and area exported through Fram Strait agree well with values obtained from in situ and satellite-derived estimates. The sea ice velocity in the interior Arctic agrees well with buoy drift data. The thermodynamic behavior of the sea ice model over a seasonal cycle at one location in the Beaufort Sea is validated against the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) datasets. The thermodynamic growth rate in the model is almost twice as large as the observed growth rate, and the melt rate is 25% lower than observed. The larger growth rate is due to thinner ice at the beginning of the SHEBA period and the absence of internal heat storage in the ice layer in the model. The simulated lower summer melt is due to the smaller-than-observed surface melt.
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2005-06-15
    Description: The mechanisms forcing variability in Southern Ocean sea ice and sea surface temperature from 600 years of a control climate coupled model integration are discussed. As in the observations, the leading mode of simulated variability exhibits a dipole pattern with positive anomalies in the Pacific sector associated with negative anomalies in the Atlantic. It is found that in the Pacific ocean circulation changes associated with variable wind forcing modify the ocean heat flux convergence and sea ice transport, resulting in sea surface temperature and sea ice anomalies. The Pacific ice and ocean anomalies persist over a number of years due to reductions in ocean shortwave absorption reinforcing the initial anomalies. In the Atlantic sector, no single process dominates in forcing the anomalies. Instead there are contributions from changing ocean and sea ice circulation and surface heat fluxes. While the absorbed solar radiation in the Atlantic is modified by the changing surface albedo, the anomalies are much shorter-lived than in the Pacific because the ocean circulation transports them northward, removing them from ice formation regions. Sea ice and ocean anomalies associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode both exhibit a dipole pattern and contribute to the leading mode of ice and ocean variability.
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2006-12-01
    Description: The Arctic Ocean freshwater budgets in climate model integrations of the twentieth and twenty-first century are examined. An ensemble of six members of the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) is used for the analysis, allowing the anthropogenically forced trends over the integration length to be assessed. Mechanisms driving trends in the budgets are diagnosed, and the implications of changes in the Arctic–North Atlantic exchange on the Labrador Sea and Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian (GIN) Seas properties are discussed. Over the twentieth and the twenty-first centuries, the Arctic freshens as a result of increased river runoff, net precipitation, and decreased ice growth. For many of the budget terms, the maximum 50-yr trends in the time series occur from approximately 1975 to 2025, suggesting that we are currently in the midst of large Arctic change. The total freshwater exchange between the Arctic and North Atlantic increases over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries with decreases in ice export more than compensated for by an increase in the liquid freshwater export. Changes in both the liquid and solid (ice) Fram Strait freshwater fluxes are transported southward by the East Greenland Current and partially removed from the GIN Seas. Nevertheless, reductions in GIN sea ice melt do result from the reduced Fram Strait transport and account for the largest term in the changing ocean surface freshwater fluxes in this region. This counteracts the increased ocean stability due to the warming climate and helps to maintain GIN sea deep-water formation.
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