ALBERT

Note: Contents Prologue Acknowledgments List of Symbols PART I Foundations 1 INTRODUCTION: The Basic Challenge 1.1 The Climate System 1.2 Some Basic Observations 1.3 External Forcing 1.3.1 Astronomical Forcing 1.3.2 Tectonic Forcing 1.4 The Ice-Age Problem 2 TECHNIQUES FOR CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION 2.1 Historical Methods 2.1.1 Direct Quantitative Measurements 2.1.2 Descriptive Accounts of General Environmental Conditions 2.2 Surficial Biogeologic Proxy Evidence 2.2.1 Annually Layered Life Forms 2.2.2 Surface Geomorphic Evidence 2.3 Conventional Nonisotopic Stratigraphic Analyses of Sedimentary Rock and Ice 2.3.1 Physical Indicators 2.3.2 Paleobiological Indicators (Fossil Faunal Types and Abundances) 2.4 Isotopic Methods 2.4.1 Oxygen Isotopes 2.4.2 Deuterium and Beryllium in Ice Cores 2.4.3 Stable Carbon Isotopes 2.4.4 Strontium and Osmium Isotopes 2.5 Nonisotopic Geochemical Methods 2.5.1 Cadmium Analysis 2.5.2 Greenhouse Gas Analysis of Trapped Air in Ice Cores 2.5.3 Chemical and Biological Constituents and Dust Layers in Ice Cores 2.6 Dating the Proxy Evidence (Geochronometry) 3 A SURVEY OF GLOBAL PALEOCLIMATIC VARIATIONS 3.1 The Phanerozoic Eon (Past 600 My) 3.2 The Cenozoic Era (Past 65 My) 3.3 The Plio-Pleistocene (Past 5 My) 3.4 Variations during the Last Ice Age: IRD Events 3.5 The Last Glacial Maximum (20 ka) 3.6 Postglacial Changes: The Past 20 ky 3.7 The Past 100 Years 3.8 The Generalized Spectrum of Climatic Variance 3.9 A Qualitative Discussion of Causes 4 GENERAL THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS 4.1 The Fundamental Equations 4.2 Time Averaging and Stochastic Forcing 4.3 Response Times and Equilibrium 4.4 Spatial Averaging 4.5 Climatic-Mean Mass and Energy Balance Equations 4.5.1 The Water Mass Balance 4.5.2 Energy Balance 5 SPECIAL THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR PALEOCLIMATE: Structuring a Dynamical Approach 5.1 A Basic Problem: Noncalculable Levels of Energy and Mass Flow 5.2 An Overall Strategy 5.3 Notational Simplifications for Resolving Total Climate Variability 5.4 A Structured Dynamical Approach 5.5 The External Forcing Function, F 5.5.1 Astronomical/Cosmic Forcing 5.5.2 Tectonic Forcing 6 BASIC CONCEPTS OF DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS ANALYSIS: Prototypical Climatic Applications 6.1 Local (or Internal) Stability 6.2 The Generic Cubic Nonlinearity 6.3 Structural (or External) Stability: Elements of Bifurcation Theory 6.4 Multivariable Systems 6.4.1 The Two-Variable Phase Plane 6.5 A Prototype Two-Variable Model 6.5.1 Sensitivity of Equilibria to Changes in Parameters: Prediction of the Second Kind 6.5.2 Structural Stability 6.6 The Prototype Two-Variable System as a Stochastic-Dynamical System: Effects of Random Forcing 6.6.1 The Stochastic Amplitude 6.6.2 Structural Stochastic Stability 6.7 More Than Two-Variable Systems: Deterministic Chaos PART II Physics of the Separate Domains 7 MODELING THE ATMOSPHERE AND SURFACE STATE AS FAST-RESPONSE COMPONENTS 7.1 The General Circulation Model 7.2 Lower Resolution Models: Statistical-Dynamical Models and the Energy Balance Model 7.2.1 A Zonal-Average SDM 7.2.2 Axially Asymmetric SDMs 7.2.3 The Complete Time-Average State 7.3 Thermodynamic Models 7.3.1 Radiative-Convective Models 7.3.2 Vertically Averaged Models (the EBM) 7.4 The Basic Energy Balance Model 7.5 Equilibria and Dynamical Properties of the Zero-Dimensional (Global Average) EBM 7.6 Stochastic Resonance 7.7 The One-Dimensional (Latitude-Dependent) EBM 7.8 Transitivity Properties of the Atmospheric and Surface Climatic State: Inferences from a GCM 7.9 Closure Relationships Based on GCM Sensitivity Experiments 7.9.1 Surface Temperature Sensitivity 7.10 Formal Feedback Analysis of the Fast-Response Equilibrium State 7.11 Paleoclimatic Simulations 8 THE SLOW-RESPONSE "CONTROL" VARIABLES: An Overview 8.1 The Ice Sheets 8.1.1 Key Variables 8.1.2 Observations 8.2 Greenhouse Gases: Carbon Dioxide 8.3 The Thermohaline Ocean State 8.4 A Three-Dimensional Phase-Space Trajectory 9 GLOBAL DYNAMICS OF THE ICE SHEETS 9.1 Basic Equations and Boundary Conditions 9.2 A Scale Analysis 9.3 The Vertically Integrated Ice-Sheet Model 9.4 The Surface Mass Balance 9.5 Basal Temperature and Melting 9.6 Deformable Basal Regolith 9.7 Ice Streams and Ice Shelves 9.8 Bedrock Depression 9.9 Sea Level Change and the Ice Sheets: The Depression-Calving Hypothesis 9.10 Paleoclimatic Applications of the Vertically Integrated Model 9.11 A Global Dynamical Equation for Ice Mass 10 DYNAMICS OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 10.1 The Air-Sea Flux, Q↑ 10.1.1 Qualitative Analysis of the Factors Affecting Q↑ 10.1.2 Mathematical Formulation of the Ocean Carbon Balance 10.1.3 A Parameterization for Q↑ 10.2 Terrestrial Organic Carbon Exchange, W↑G 10.2.1 Sea Level Change Effects 10.2.2 Thermal Effects 10.2.3 Ice Cover Effects 10.2.4 Long-Term Terrestrial Organic Burial, W↓G 10.2.5 The Global Mass Balance of Organic Carbon 10.3 Outgassing Processes, V↑ 10.4 Rock Weathering Downdraw, W↓ 10.5 A Global Dynamical Equation for Atmospheric CO2 10.6 Modeling the Tectonically Forced CO2 Variations, µˆ : Long-Term Rock Processes 10.6.1 The Long-Term Oceanic Carbon Balance 10.6.2 The GEOCARB Model 10.7 Overview of the Full Global Carbon Cycle 11 SIMPLIFIED DYNAMICS OF THE THERMOHALINE OCEAN STATE 11.1 General Equations 11.1.1 Boundary Conditions 11.2 A Prototype Four-Box Ocean Model 11.3 The Wind-Driven, Local-Convective, and Baroclinic Eddy Circulations 11.3.1 The Wind-Driven Circulation: Gyres and Upwelling 11.3.2 Local Convective Overturnings and Baroclinic Eddy Circulations 11.4 The Two-Box Thermohaline Circulation Model: Possible Bimodality of the Ocean State 11.4.1 The Two-Box System 11.4.2 A Simple Model of the TH Circulation 11.4.3 Meridional Fluxes 11.4.4 Dynamical Analysis of the Two-Box Model 11.5 Integral Equations for the Deep Ocean State 11.5.1 The Deep Ocean Temperature 11.5.2 The Deep Ocean Salinity 11.6 Global Dynamical Equations for the Thermohaline State: θ and Sφ PART III Unified Dynamical Theory 12 THE COUPLED FAST- AND SLOW-RESPONSE VARIABLES AS A GLOBAL DYNAMICAL SYSTEM: Outline of a Theory of Paleoclimatic Variation 12.1 The Unified Model: A Paleoclimate Dynamics Model 12.2 Feedback-Loop Representation 12.3 Elimination of the Fast-Response Variables: The Center Manifold 12.4 Sources of Instability: The Dissipative Rate Constants 12.5 Formal Separation into Tectonic Equilibrium and Departure Equations 13 FORCED EVOLUTION OF THE TECTONIC-MEAN CLIMATIC STATE 13.1 Effects of Changing Solar Luminosity and Rotation Rate 13.1.1 Solar Luminosity (S) 13.1.2 Rotation Rate (Ω) 13.2 General Effects of Changing Land-Ocean Distribution and Topography (h) 13.3 Effects of Long-Term Variations of Volcanic and Cosmic Dust and Bolides 13.4 Multimillion-Year Evolution of CO2 13.4.1 The GEOCARB Solution 13.4.2 First-Order Response of Global Ice Mass and Deep Ocean Temperature to Tectonic CO2 Variations 13.5 Possible Role of Salinity-Driven Instability of the Tectonic-Mean State 13.6 Snapshot Atmospheric and Surficial Equilibrium Responses to Prescribed y-Fields Using GCMs 14 THE LATE CENOZOIC ICE-AGE DEPARTURES: An Overview of Previous Ideas and Models 14.1 General Review: Forced vs. Free Models 14.1.1 Models in Which Earth-Orbital Forcing Is Necessary 14.1.2 Instability-Driven (Auto-oscillatory) Models 14.1.3 Hierarchical Classification in Terms of Increasing Physical Complexity 14.2 Forced Ice-Line Models (Box 1, Fig. 14-1) 14.3 Ice-Sheet Inertia Models 14.3.1 The Simplest Forms (Box 2) 14.3.2 More Physically Based Ice-Sheet Models: First Applications 14.3.3 Direct Bedrock Effects (Box 3) 14.3.4 Bedrock-Calving Effects (Box 4) 14.3.5 Basal Meltwater and Sliding (Box 5) 14.3.6 Ice Streams and Ice Shelf Effects 14.3.7 Continental Ice-Sheet Movement (Box 6) 14.3.8 Three-Dimensional (λ, φ, hI) Ice-Sheet Models 14.4 The Need for Enhancement of the Coupled Ice-Sheet/Atmospheric Climate Models 14.5 Ice-Sheet Variables Coupled with Additional Slow-Response Variables 14.5.1 Regolith Mass, mr (Box 7) 14.5.2 The Deep Ocean Te

Note: Contents: List of plates. - Preface. - Acknowledgments. - PART 1 The climate system and its study. - 1 Introduction. - 1.1 The global climate system. - 1.2 Time and space scales of weather and climate processes. - 1.3 Dynamic and synoptic climatology. - 1.4 The structure of the book. - 2 Climate data and their analysis. - 2.1 Synoptic meteorological data. - 2.2 Remotely sensed data. - 2.3 Climate variables and their statistical description. - 2.4 Analytical tools for spatial data. - 2.5 Time series. - 2.6 Empirical orthogonal function analysis, clustering, and classification. - Appendix 2.1 Eulerian and Lagrangian methods. - PART 2 Dynamic climatology. - 3 Global climate and the general circulation. - 3.1 Planetary controls. - 3.2 Basic controls of the atmospheric circulation and its maintenance. - 3.3 Circulation cells. - 3.4 The Earth's geography. - 3.5 Climate system feedbacks. - 3.6 General circulation models. - 3.7 The global circulation-description. - 3.8 Centers of action. - 3.9 Global climatic features. - 3.10 Air masses. - Appendix 3.1 Potential vorticity. - 4 Large-scale circulation and climatic characteristics. - 4.1 Time-averaged circulation. - 4.2 Jetstreams. - 4.3 Planetary waves. - 4.4 Zonal index. - 4.5 Zonal and blocking flow modes. - 4.6 Blocking mechanisms.- 4.7 Low-frequency circulation variability and persistence. - 4.8 Intraseasonal oscillations. - Appendix 4.1 Spectral harmonic functions. - Appendix 4.2 Eliassen-Palm flux. - Appendix 4.3 Normal modes. - 5 Global teleconnections. - 5.1 Pressure oscillations and teleconnection patterns. - 5.2 The Southern Oscillation and El Niño. - 5.3 ENSO mechanisms. - 5.4 Teleconnections with ENSO. - 5.5 Extratropical teleconnection patterns. - 5.6 North Atlantic Oscillation. - 5.7 North Pacific Oscillation. - 5.8 Zonally symmetric oscillations. - 5.9 The southern hemisphere. - 5.10 Tropical-extratropical teleconnections. - 5.11 Teleconnections and synoptic-scale activity. - 5.12 Time-scale aspects of teleconnections. - 5.13 Interannual to interdecadal oscillations. - Appendix 5.1 Partitioning between equatorially symmetric and antisymmetric components. - PART 3 Synoptic climatology. - 6 Synoptic systems. - 6.1 Early studies of extra tropical systems. - 6.2 Climatology of cyclones and anticyclone. - 6.3 Development of cyclones. - 6.4 Storm tracks. - 6.5 Satellite-based climatologies of synoptic features. - 6.6 Synoptic-scale systems in the tropics. - Appendix 6.1 The Q-vector formulation. - 7 Synoptic climatology and its applications / Roger G. Barry and Allen H. Perry. - 7.1 Synoptic pattern classification. - 7.2 Subjective typing procedures. - 7.3 Objective typing procedures. - 7.4 Principal catalogs and their uses. - 7.5 Regional applications. - 7.6 Analogs. - 7.7 Seasonal structure. - 7.8 Climatic trends. - 7.9 Environmental applications. - 8 Retrospect and prospect. - Further reading. - Index.

Note: TABLE OF CONTENTS: Foreword. - Conference summary. - EXTENDED ABSTRACTS OF THE INVITED PAPERS. - ACSYS as a journey of discovery / K. Aagaard. - The hydroclimatology of north-flowing high latitude rivers / R. G. Lawford. - Atmospheric components of the hydrological cycle in the Arctic / R. G. Barry, M. C. Serreze and J. E. Walsh. - Hydrological studies in the Arctic zone of Russia / V. V. Ivanov and V. S. Vuglinsky. - On sensitivity of a simulated high-latitude atmosphere to sea-ice fluctuation and to parameterization of cloud optical properties / V. P. Meleshko, V. M. Kattsov and P. V. Sporyshev. - Characteristics of Arctic clouds and radiation (abstract only) / J. A . Curry. - Processes of air-sea interaction in polar regions / A. P. Makshtas, V. F . Timachev and A. S . Zachek. - The ACSYS Arctic Atmosphere Programme (abstract only) / H. Cattle. - Modeling interactions between shortwave radiation, pack ice and the upper ocean / G. A. Maykut. - Remote sensing of Arctic Sea ice / J. Askne. - Sea ice rheologies for use in climate models (abstract only) / W. D. Hibler III and C. F . Ip. - Problems of sea ice modelling for climate research / P. Lemke. - Climatic variability of the Arctic Ocean circulation connected with interannual variations of atmospheric processes / L. A. Timokhov. - Water modification on Arctic continental shelves: seasonal cycle and interannual variation / H. Melling. - Convective water mass and ice formation in Arctic shelf seas (numerical process studies) / J. O. Backhaus, H. Fohrmann, I. H. Harms, J. H. Jungclaus and A. Rubino. - Arctic Ocean water masses and circulation: An overview based on the 1991 expedition of IB ODEN / E . P. Jones. - EXTENDED ABSTRACTS OF THE POSTER PAPERS. - SESSION 1 - HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE. - Characteristics of water and sediment discharge formation from small watersheds of the Arctic zone under the impact of technology / N. N. Bobrovitskaya, N. G. Vasilenko and K. M. Zubkova. - ECMWF and METEO-FRANCE GCM simulations of precipitation and surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet / C. Genthon. - River water inflow to the Arctic seas / V. V. Ivanov. - The initiation of ice sheet growth, Milankovitch solar radiation variations, and the 100 Kyr ice age cycle / T. S . Ledley and S. Chu. - Research results for evaporation from different landscapes in the Arctic zone / S. M. Novikov and S. A. Trofimov. - Interannual variability in precipitation minus evaporation over the Arctic, 1974-91 (abstract only) / M. C. Serreze, R. G. Barry, M. C. Rehder and J. E. Walsh. - Criogenic transformation of the surface- and subsurface inflows into the Arctic seas / B. L. Sokolov and M. L. Markov. - Hydrological cycle modelling for Arctic river basins / Yu. B. Vinogradov and T. A. Vinogradova. - Atmospheric water vapor convergence and river runoff in northern high latitudes / J. E. Walsh, D. Fortis and X. Zhou. - An investigation of the atmospheric effect on snowmelt in the Arctic and subarctic / T. Zhang, K. Stamnes and S.-A. Bowling. - A valuation of possible changes in glacio-hydrological characteristics under global warming: South-Eastern Alaska glaciation / N. V. Davidovich and M. D. Ananicheva. - SESSION 2 - ATMOSPHERE. - Modelling the atmospheric transportation of dust to the Arctic (abstract only) / K. K. Andersen. - Mechanisms of formation and predictability of the intermediate and high latitudes atmospheric blockings / R. V. Bekryaev. - A regional climate model of the Arctic atmosphere / M. Botzet, J. H. Christensen, E. Claudius, K. Dethloff, R. Lehmann, B. Machenhauer and A. Rinke. - Wintertime cold-air outbreaks from the Arctic ice / B. Brümmer. - International Arctic cloudiness-aerosol-radiation project (IACARP) (abstract only) / A. A. Chernikov, I. P. Mazin, I. I. Mokhov and A. I. Voskresensky. - The importance of the low level inversions upon the Arctic weather and climate / K. Wilhelmsen. - On the impact of sub-grid scale sea-ice distribution on atmospheric climate and air-sea fluxes / A. Grotzner, R. Sausen and M. Claussen. - Interaction of the modern climatic changes of atmosphere, ocean and ice cover in the Arctic / Z. M. Gudkovich, V. F. Zakharov, E. O. Aksenov and S. P. Pozdnyshev. - Airborne measurements of turbulent transfer of momentum and heat related to floe field structure in the Fram Strait / J. Hartmann, E. Augstein and C. Kottmeier. - Heat and water budgets over the northern polar region as estimated from 14 atmospheric general circulation models / V. M. Kattsov, T. V. Pavlova and V. A. Govorkova. - On the variability of surface heat fluxes at high latitudes / G. W. K. Moore. - Temperature inversions in Arctic atmosphere / A. P. Nagurny, G. V. Alekseev and E. V. Rozanov. - Physical and optical/radiative properties of Arctic aerosols: potential effects on Arctic climate / R. F. Pueschel and S. A. Kinne. - Calculation of heat fluxes for Arctic regions dependent on sea ice distribution / C. Lüpkes, K. H. Schlünzen, G. Birnbaum and K. Salzen. - Carbon emission from the northern ecosystems and climatic changes (abstract only) / I. P. Semiletov, S. A. Zimov, Yu. V. Voropaev and S. P. Daviodov. - The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Programme North Slope of Alaska/Adjacent Arctic Ocean (NSA/AAO) Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART): Science issues / K. Stamnes and B. O. Zak. - Dependence of surface albedo in the Arctic on surface characteristics, clouds and solar elevation / K. Stamnes, Z. Jin and B. O. Zak. - Use of advanced earth observing satellite to study radiation/cloud/climate interactions and ozone chemistry in the Arctic / K. Stamnes, V. V. Filyushkin and B. O. Zak. - Is it tropospheric sudden warming? (abstract only) / H. L. Tanaka and M. Hayasaki. - Methods for estimating the characteristics of the atmospheric boundary layer in polar regions / A. P. Makshtas and V. F. Timachev. - The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Programme North Slope of Alaska and Adjacent Arctic Ocean (NSA/AAO) Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART): An overview / B. O. Zak and K. Stamnes. - SESSION 3 - SEA ICE. - Modelling convection in a melt pond / P. V. Bogorodsky. - An operational ice-ocean coupled model of the northern hemisphere / A. Cheng and R. H. Preller. - Patterns of monthly wind and ice motion in the Arctic Basin (abstract only) / R. Colony. - Wind-driven ice motion and surface ocean currents in the Arctic Basin (abstract only) / R. Colony. - Surface melt puddles on multi-year sea ice in the Eurasian Arctic / H. Eicken, R. Gradinger, B. Ivanov, A. Makshtas and R. Pác. - Sensitivity of a large-scale sea-ice-upper-ocean model to uncertainties in the atmospheric forcing / T. Fichefet and M. A. Morales Maqueda. - Parameterizing the strength of Arctic sea ice / G. M. Flato. - Russian historical material on sea ice as a part of global digital sea ice data bank / I. E. Frolov and V. M. Smolyanitsky. - A large-scale simulation of Arctic sea ice, 1986-1992 / M. Harder. - On coupling a dynamic-thermodynamic snow sea-ice model to a global climate model / D. M. Holland and J. M . Oberhuber. - A mesoscale simulation of the Arctic ice pack / M. A. Hopkins. - Seasonal evolution of sea ice cover and shelf water off Labrador simulated in a coupled ice-ocean model / M. Ikeda, T. Yao and Q. Yao. - A study on the relation between the sea-ice extent in the Arctic and runoff into the Arctic Ocean (abstract only) / R. Kanohgi, H. L. Tanaka and T. Yasunari. - Development of seasonal ice cover in the Beaufort Sea: A view from below (abstract only) / H. Melling. - Measurement, analysis and parameterization of melt pond albedo / M. P. Morassutti and E .F. LeDrew. - Characteristics of surface energy partitioning over snow-covered first-year sea ice in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago during the spring transition / T. N. Papakyriakou and E. F. LeDrew. - The interaction of solar radiation with summer sea ice / D. K. Perovich and W. B. Tucker III. - Relating Arctic pack ice stress and strain at the 10km scale / J. A. Richter-Men