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  • 1
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    Future projections of the surface heat and water budgets of the Mediterranean Sea in an ensemble of coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate models (2012)
    Springer Verlag GMBH Germany
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-22
    Description: Within the CIRCE project ‘‘Climate change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment’’, an ensemble of high resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate models (AORCMs) are used to simulate the Mediterranean climate for the period 1950–2050. For the first time, realistic net surface air-sea fluxes are obtained. The sea surface temperature (SST) variability is consistent with the atmospheric forcing above it and oce- anic constraints. The surface fluxes respond to external forcing under a warming climate and show an equivalent trend in all models. This study focuses on the present day and on the evolution of the heat and water budget over the Mediterranean Sea under the SRES-A1B scenario. On the contrary to previous studies, the net total heat budget is negative over the present period in all AORCMs and sat- isfies the heat closure budget controlled by a net positive heat gain at the strait of Gibraltar in the present climate. Under climate change scenario, some models predict a warming of the Mediterranean Sea from the ocean surface (positive net heat flux) in addition to the positive flux at the strait of Gibraltar for the 2021–2050 period. The shortwave and latent flux are increasing and the longwave and sen- sible fluxes are decreasing compared to the 1961–1990 period due to a reduction of the cloud cover and an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) and SSTs over the 2021–2050 period. The AORCMs provide a good estimates of the water budget with a drying of the region during the twenty- first century. For the ensemble mean, he decrease in pre- cipitation and runoff is about 10 and 15% respectively and the increase in evaporation is much weaker, about 2% compared to the 1961–1990 period which confirm results obtained in recent studies. Despite a clear consistency in the trends and results between the models, this study also underlines important differences in the model set-ups, methodology and choices of some physical parameters inducing some difference in the various air-sea fluxes. An evaluation of the uncertainty sources and possible improvement for future generation of AORCMs highlights the importance of the parameterisation of the ocean albedo, rivers and cloud cover.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1859–1884
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Mediterranean Sea ; scenarios ; coupled regional climate models ; circe ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    The CIRCE simulations: Regional Climate Change Projections with Realistic Representation of the Mediterranean Sea (2012)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-22
    Description: In this article we describe an innovative multi-model system developed within the CIRCEEU-FP6 Project and used to produce simulations of the Mediterranean Sea regional climate.The models include high-resolution Mediterranean Sea components, which allow to assess therole of the basin, and in particular of the air-sea feedbacks in the climate of the region. The models have been integrated from 1951 to 2050, using observed radiative forcings duringthe first half of the simulation period and the IPCC SRES A1B scenario during the secondhalf.The projections show a substantial warming (about 1.5°-2°C) and a significant decrease ofprecipitation (about 5%) in the region for the scenario period. However, locally the changesmight be even larger. In the same period, the projected surface net heat loss decreases, leadingto a weaker cooling of the Mediterranean Sea by the atmosphere, whereas the water budgetappears to increase, leading the basin to loose more water through its surface than in the past.These results are overall consistent with the findings of previous scenario simulations, such asPRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES and CMIP3. The agreement suggests that these findings arerobust to substantial changes in the configuration of the models used to make the simulations.Finally, the models produce a 2021-2050 mean steric sea-level rise that ranges between +7 cm and +12 cm, with respect to the period of reference.
    Description: Published
    Description: 65-81
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Mediterranean Sea ; climate projections ; multi-model ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    The role of mean ocean salinity in climate (2010)
    elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-02-10
    Description: We describe numerical simulations designed to help elucidate the role of ocean salinity in climate. Using a general circulation model, we study a 100-year sensitivity experiment in which the global-mean salinity is doubled from its present observed value, by adding 35 psu everywhere. The salinity increase produces a rapid global-mean sea-surface warming of 0.8◦ within a few years, caused by reduced vertical mixing associated with changes in cabbeling. The warming is followed by a gradual global mean sea-surface cooling of 0.4 ◦C over the next few decades, caused by an increase in the vertical (downward) component of the isopycnal diffusive heat flux. We find no evidence of impacts on the variability of either the Atlantic thermohaline circulation or the El Ni ̃no/Southern Oscillation. The mean strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning is slightly reduced and the North Atlantic Deep Water penetrates less deeply. Nevertheless, our results dispute claims that higher salinities for the world ocean have profound consequences for the thermohaline circulation. In additional experiments with doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide, we find that the amplitude and spatial pattern of the global warming signal are modified in the hypersaline ocean. In particular, the ocean’s contribution to the climate sensitivity is significantly reduced. We infer the existence of a non-linear interaction between the climate responses to modified carbon dioxide and modified salinity.
    Description: Published
    Description: 108-123
    Description: 3A. Geofisica marina e osservazioni multiparametriche a fondo mare
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: ocean ; salinity ; climate ; thermohaline circulation ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
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    Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity due to Global Warming in a General Circulation Model (2010)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: This study investigates the possible changes that the greenhouse global warming might generate in the characteristics of the tropical cyclones (TCs). The analysis has been performed using scenario climate simulations carried out with a fully coupled high-resolution global general circulation model. The capability of the model to reproduce a reasonably realistic TC climatology has been assessed by comparing the model results from a simulation of the 20th Century with observations. The model appears to be able to simulate tropical cyclone-like vortices with many features similar to the observed TCs. The simulated TC activity exhibits realistic geographical distribution, seasonal modulation and interannual variability, suggesting that the model is able to reproduce the major basic mechanisms that link the TC occurrence with the large scale circulation. The results from the climate scenarios reveal a substantial general reduction of the TC frequency when the atmospheric CO2 concentration is doubled and quadrupled. The reduction appears particularly evident for the tropical North West Pacific (NWP) and North Atlantic (ATL). In the NWP the weaker TC activity seems to be associated with a reduced amount of convective instabilities. In the ATL region the weaker TC activity seems to be due to both the increased stability of the atmosphere and a stronger vertical wind shear. Despite the generally reduced TC activity, there is evidence of increased rainfall associated with the simulated cyclones. Despite the overall warming of the tropical upper ocean and the expansion of warm SSTs to the subtropics and mid-latitudes, the action of the TCs remains well confined to the tropical region and the peak of TC number remains equatorward of 20° latitude in both Hemispheres. An extended version of this work is in available on Journal of Climate (Gualdi et al.,2008 - DOI:10.1175/2008JCLI1921.1)
    Description: Published
    Description: 287-321
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: open
    Keywords: climate ; tropical cyclones ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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