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  • Copernicus  (6)
  • 2010-2014  (6)
  • 1
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    Statistics of severe tornadoes and severe tornado outbreaks (2012)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-09-20
    Description: The standard measures of the intensity of a tornado in the USA and many other countries are the Fujita and Enhanced Fujita scales. These scales are based on the damage that a tornado causes. Another measure of the strength of a tornado is its path length of touchdown, L. In this study we consider severe tornadoes, which we define as L≥10 km, in the continental USA (USA Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Database). We find that for the period 1982–2011, for individual severe tornadoes (L≥10 km): (i) There is a strong linear scaling between the number of severe tornadoes in a year and their total path length in that year. (ii) The cumulative frequency path length data suggests that, not taking into account any changing trends over time, we would expect in a given year (on average) one severe tornado with a path length L≥115 km and in a decade (on average) one severe tornado with a path length L≥215 km. (iii) The noncumulative frequency-length statistics of severe tornado touchdown path lengths, 20
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7324
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 2
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    A fault and seismicity based composite simulation in northern California (2011)
    Copernicus
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    Publication Date: 2011-12-14
    Description: We generate synthetic catalogs of seismicity in northern California using a composite simulation. The basis of the simulation is the fault based "Virtual California" (VC) earthquake simulator. Back-slip velocities and mean recurrence intervals are specified on model strike-slip faults. A catalog of characteristic earthquakes is generated for a period of 100 000 yr. These earthquakes are predominantly in the range M = 6 to M = 8, but do not follow Gutenberg-Richter (GR) scaling at lower magnitudes. In order to model seismicity on unmapped faults we introduce background seismicity which occurs randomly in time with GR scaling and is spatially associated with the VC model faults. These earthquakes fill in the GR scaling down to M = 4 (the smallest earthquakes modeled). The rate of background seismicity is constrained by the observed rate of occurrence of M 〉 4 earthquakes in northern California. These earthquakes are then used to drive the BASS (branching aftershock sequence) model of aftershock occurrence. The BASS model is the self-similar limit of the ETAS (epidemic type aftershock sequence) model. Families of aftershocks are generated following each Virtual California and background main shock. In the simulations the rate of occurrence of aftershocks is essentially equal to the rate of occurrence of main shocks in the magnitude range 4 〈 M 〈 7. We generate frequency-magnitude and recurrence interval statistics both regionally and fault specific. We compare our modeled rates of seismicity and spatial variability with observations.
    Print ISSN: 1023-5809
    Electronic ISSN: 1607-7946
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 3
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    Record-breaking earthquake intervals in a global catalogue and an aftershock sequence (2010)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2010-03-31
    Description: For the purposes of this study, an interval is the elapsed time between two earthquakes in a designated region; the minimum magnitude for the earthquakes is prescribed. A record-breaking interval is one that is longer (or shorter) than preceding intervals; a starting time must be specified. We consider global earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 5.5 and show that the record-breaking intervals are well estimated by a Poissonian (random) theory. We also consider the aftershocks of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake and show that the record-breaking intervals are approximated by very different statistics. In both cases, we calculate the number of record-breaking intervals (nrb) and the record-breaking interval durations Δtrb as a function of "natural time", the number of elapsed events. We also calculate the ratio of record-breaking long intervals to record-breaking short intervals as a function of time, r(t), which is suggested to be sensitive to trends in noisy time series data. Our data indicate a possible precursory signal to large earthquakes that is consistent with accelerated moment release (AMR) theory.
    Print ISSN: 1023-5809
    Electronic ISSN: 1607-7946
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 4
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    Temperature trends at the Mauna Loa observatory, Hawaii (2011)
    Copernicus
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    Publication Date: 2011-08-31
    Description: Observations at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, established the systematic increase of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere. For the same reasons that this site provides excellent globally averaged CO2 data, it may provide temperature data with global significance. Here, we examine hourly temperature records, averaged annually for 1977–2006, to determine linear trends as a function of time of day. For night-time data (22:00 to 06:00 LST (local standard time)) there is a near-uniform warming of 0.040 °C yr−1. During the day, the linear trend shows a slight cooling of −0.014 °C yr−1 at 12:00 LST (noon). Overall, at Mauna Loa Observatory, there is a mean warming trend of 0.021 °C yr−1. The dominance of night-time warming results in a relatively large annual decrease in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) of −0.050 °C yr−1 over the period 1977–2006. These trends are consistent with the observed increases in the concentrations of CO2 and its role as a greenhouse gas (demonstrated here by first-order radiative forcing calculations), and indicate the possible relevance of the Mauna Loa temperature measurements to global warming.
    Print ISSN: 1814-9324
    Electronic ISSN: 1814-9332
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 5
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    Temperature trends at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (2010)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2010-09-07
    Description: Observations at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, established the systematic increase of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere. For the same reasons that this site provides excellent globally averaged CO2 data, it may provide temperature data with global significance. Here, we examine hourly temperature records, averaged annually for 1977–2006, to determine linear trends as a function of time of day. For night-time data (22:00 to 06:00, LST (local standard time)) there is a near-uniform warming of 0.040 °C y−1. During the day, the linear trend shows a slight cooling of −0.013 °C y−1 at 12:00 (noon, LST). Overall, at Mauna Loa Observatory, there is a mean warming trend of 0.021 °C y−1. The dominance of night-time warming results in a relatively large annual decrease in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) of −0.050 °C y−1. These trends are consistent with the observed increases in the concentrations of CO2 and its role as a greenhouse gas, and indicate the possible relevance of the Mauna Loa temperature measurements to global warming.
    Print ISSN: 1814-9340
    Electronic ISSN: 1814-9359
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 6
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    Statistics of severe tornadoes and severe tornado outbreaks (2012)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-03-07
    Description: The standard measures of the intensity of a tornado in the USA and many other countries are the Fujita and Enhanced Fujita scales. These scales are based on the damage that a tornado causes. Another measure of the strength of a tornado is its path length of touchdown, L. In this study we consider 4061 severe tornadoes (defined as L≥10 km) in the continental USA for the time period 1981–2010 (USA Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Database). We find for individual severe tornadoes: (i) The noncumulative frequency-length statistics of severe tornado touchdown path lengths, 20 〈 L 〈 200 km, is well approximated by an inverse power-law relationship with exponent near 3. (ii) There is a strong linear scaling between the number of severe tornadoes in a year and their total path lengths in that year. We then take the total path length of severe tornadoes in a day, LD, as a measure of the strength of a 24-hour USA tornado outbreak. We find that: (i) On average, the number of days per year with at least one continental USA severe tornado (path length L≥10 km) has increased 16% in the 30-year period 1981–2010. (ii) The daily numbers of severe tornadoes in a USA outbreak have a strong power-law relationship (exponent 0.87) on their daily total path lengths, LD, over the range 20 〈 LD 〈 1000 km dy−1. (iii) The noncumulative frequency-length statistics of tornado outbreaks, 10 〈 LD 〈 1000 km dy−1, is well approximated by an inverse power-law relationship with exponent near 1.7. We believe that our robust scaling results provide evidence that touchdown path lengths can be used as quantitative measures of the systematic properties of severe tornadoes and severe tornado outbreaks.
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7375
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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