ALBERT

Description: This study presents a numerical first-order spectral model to quantify transient flow and remediation zone uncertainties for partially opened wells in heterogeneous aquifers. Taking advantages of spectral theories in solving unmodeled small-scale variability in hydraulic conductivity (K), the presented nonstationary spectral method (NSM) can efficiently estimate flow uncertainties, including hydraulic heads and Darcy velocities in r- and z-directions in a cylindrical coordinate system. The velocity uncertainties associated with the particle backward tracking algorithm are then used to estimate stochastic remediation zones for scenarios with partially opened well screens. In this study the flow and remediation zone uncertainties obtained by NSM were first compared with those obtained by Monte Carlo simulations (MCS). A layered aquifer with different geometric mean of K and screen locations was then illustrated with the developed NSM. To compare NSM flow and remediation zone uncertainties with those of MCS, three different small-scale K variances and correlation lengths were considered for illustration purpose. The MCS remediation zones for different degrees of heterogeneity were presented with the uncertainty clouds obtained by 200 equally likely MCS realizations. Results of simulations reveal that the first-order NSM solutions agree well with those of MCS for partially opened wells. The flow uncertainties obtained by using NSM and MCS show identically for aquifers with small ln K variances and correlation lengths. Based on the test examples, the remediation zone uncertainties (bandwidths) are not sensitive to the changes of small-scale ln K correlation lengths. However, the increases of remediation zone uncertainties (i.e. the uncertainty bandwidths) are significant with the increases of small-scale ln K variances. The largest displacement uncertainties may have several meters of differences when the ln K variances increase from 0.1 to 1.0. Such conclusions are also valid for the estimations of remediation zones in layered aquifers.

Description: This study presents a numerical first-order spectral model to quantify flow and remediation zone uncertainties for partially opened wells in heterogeneous aquifers. Taking advantages of spectral theories in solving unmodeled small-scale variability in hydraulic conductivity (K), the presented nonstationary spectral method (NSM) can efficiently estimate flow uncertainties, including hydraulic heads and Darcy velocities in r- and z profile in a cylindrical coordinate system. The velocity uncertainties associated with the particle backward tracking algorithm are then used to estimate stochastic remediation zones for scenarios with partially opened well screens. In this study the flow and remediation zone uncertainties obtained by NSM were first compared with those obtained by Monte Carlo simulations (MCS). A layered aquifer with different geometric mean of K and screen locations was then illustrated with the developed NSM. To compare NSM flow and remediation zone uncertainties with those of MCS, three different small-scale K variances and correlation lengths were considered for illustration purpose. The MCS remediation zones for different degrees of heterogeneity were presented with the uncertainty clouds obtained by 200 equally likely MCS realizations. Results of simulations reveal that the first-order NSM solutions agree well with those of MCS for partially opened wells. The flow uncertainties obtained by using NSM and MCS show identically for aquifers with small ln K variances and correlation lengths. Based on the test examples, the remediation zone uncertainties are not sensitive to the changes of small-scale ln K correlation lengths. However, the increases of remediation zone uncertainties are significant with the increases of small-scale ln K variances. The largest displacement uncertainties may have several meters of differences when the ln K variances increase from 0.1 to 1.0. Such results are also valid for the estimations of remediation zones in layered aquifers.

Description: This REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes regional study provides a synthesis of the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in East Asia, a region comprised of China, Japan, North and South Korea, and Mongolia. We estimate the current terrestrial carbon balance of East Asia and its driving mechanisms during 1990–2009 using three different approaches: inventories combined with satellite greenness measurements, terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle models and atmospheric inversion models. The magnitudes of East Asia's terrestrial carbon sink from these three approaches are comparable: −0.293±0.033 PgC yr−1 from inventory–remote sensing model–data fusion approach, −0.413±0.141 PgC yr−1 (not considering biofuel emissions) or −0.224±0.141 PgC yr−1 (considering biofuel emissions) for carbon cycle models, and −0.270±0.507 PgC yr−1 for atmospheric inverse models. Here and in the following, the numbers behind ± signs are standard deviations. The ensemble of ecosystem modeling based analyses further suggests that at the regional scale, climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 together resulted in a carbon sink of −0.289±0.135 PgC yr−1, while land-use change and nitrogen deposition had a contribution of −0.013±0.029 PgC yr−1 and −0.107±0.025 PgC yr−1, respectively. Although the magnitude of climate change effects on the carbon balance varies among different models, all models agree that in response to climate change alone, southern China experienced an increase in carbon storage from 1990 to 2009, while northern East Asia including Mongolia and north China showed a decrease in carbon storage. Overall, our results suggest that about 13–27% of East Asia's CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning have been offset by carbon accumulation in its terrestrial territory over the period from 1990 to 2009. The underlying mechanisms of carbon sink over East Asia still remain largely uncertain, given the diversity and intensity of land management processes, and the regional conjunction of many drivers such as nutrient deposition, climate, atmospheric pollution and CO2 changes, which cannot be considered as independent for their effects on carbon storage.

Description: Northern Eurasia experienced anomalous weather conditions in the 2003 summer. We examined how forest ecosystems responded to the meteorological anomalies during the period using the dataset collected at flux monitoring sites in Asia, including a boreal forest in Mongolia, temperate forests in China and Japan, and a sub-tropical forest in China, as well as the dataset from satellite remote sensing. From July to August 2003, an active rain band stayed in the mid-latitude in East Asia for an unusually long period. Under the influence of the rain band, the Gross Primary Production (GPP), of temperate forests was 20–30% lower in the 2003 summer than in other years due to significant reduction in the Photosynthetic Photon Flux Density (PPFD). The GPP of a cool-temperate forest in the north of the rain band was slightly enhanced by the higher PPFD; however, the GPP of a sub-tropical forest located in the south of the rain band was reduced by drought stress due to extremely hot and dry conditions. The correlation coefficients for the year-to-year changes in the PPFD and GPP during mid-summer were calculated, and the spatial distribution was examined. The spatial pattern of the PPFD was calculated by satellite data, and that of the GPP was estimated by a regression-type model, which was trained and tested by ground observation data. The correlation was positive in the mid- and high-latitudes since light was an essential factor of the summer GPP. On the other hand, a negative correlation appeared in the lower latitudes, suggesting that the water limitation was much more important than the PPFD in the region. Our study illustrated that the integration of flux data from wide areas by combining satellite remote sensing data can help us gain an understanding of the ecosystem responses to large-scale meteorological phenomena.