ALBERT

Description: A global Earth System model is employed to investigate the role of direct temperature effects in the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. While model configurations with and without consideration of explicit temperature effects can reproduce observed current biogeochemical tracer distributions and estimated carbon export about equally well, carbon flow through the model ecosystem reveals strong temperature sensitivities. Depending on whether biological processes are assumed temperature sensitive or not, simulated marine net primary production (NPP) increases or decreases under projected climate change driven by a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario for the 21st century. This suggests that indirect temperature effects such as changes in the supply of nutrients and light are not the only relevant factors to be considered when modeling the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. A better understanding of direct temperature effects on marine ecosystems is required before even the direction of change in NPP can be reliably predicted.

Description: Geological and hydrographic records contain evidence of substantial past variations in the oxygenation of the global ocean. Numerical models predicts a future decrease of marine oxygen levels under global warming. Using a global biogeochemical-climate model in which diapycnal mixing is parametrised as the sum of the regionally heterogenous tidal and homogenous background vertical mixing, we here show that simulated total oceanic oxygen content and the extent of marine suboxia are both sensitive to the strength of background vertical mixing. Eight otherwise identical configurations of the model were spun up under pre-industrial conditions for different vertical diffusivities ranging from background values of 0.01 cm 2/s to 0.5 cm 2/s. This range corresponds to various observational estimates and to values currently used in numerical ocean circulation models. Whereas the simulated total oceanic oxygen content is larger for larger mixing intensities, the simulated suboxic volume displays a maximum at intermediate diffusivities of about 0.2 cm 2/s. The intensity of vertical mixing also determines the evolution of suboxic areas under projected 21st century CO 2 emissions: while all model configurations predict a decline in total oceanic oxygen, the simulated extent of marine suboxia shows a 21st century expansion only for mixing rates higher than 0.2 cm 2/s, whereas the suboxic volume declines for lower mixing rates despite an overall loss of marine oxygen. Differences in the poorly constrained mixing parameterisation can thus lead to qualitatively different estimates about the future evolution of marine suboxia under projected climate change.

Description: This study presents results from 46 sensitivity experiments carried out with three structurally simple (2, 3, and 6 biogeochemical state variables, respectively) models of production, export and remineralization of organic phosphorus, coupled to a global ocean circulation model and integrated for 3000 years each. The models’ skill is assessed via different misfit functions with respect to the observed global distributions of phosphate and oxygen. Across the different models, the global root-mean square misfit with respect to observed phosphate and oxygen distributions is found to be particularly sensitive to changes in the remineralization length scale, and also to changes in simulated primary production. For this metric, changes in the production and decay of dissolved organic phosphorus as well as in zooplankton parameters are of lesser importance. For a misfit function accounting for the misfit of upper-ocean tracers, however, production parameters and organic phosphorus dynamics play a larger role. Regional misfit patterns are investigated as indicators of potential model deficiencies, such as missing iron limitation, or deficiencies in the sinking and remineralization length scales. In particular, the gradient between phosphate concentrations in the northern North Pacific and the northern North Atlantic is controlled predominantly by the biogeochemical model parameters related to particle flux. For the combined 46 sensitivity experiments performed here, the global misfit to observed oxygen and phosphate distributions shows no clear relation to either simulated global primary or export production for either misfit metric employed. However, a relatively tight relationship that is very similar for the different model of different structural complexity is found between the model-data misfit in oxygen and phosphate distributions to simulated meso- and bathypelagic particle flux. Best agreement with the observed tracer distributions is obtained for simulated particle fluxes that agree most closely with sediment trap data for a nominal depth of about 1000 m, or deeper.

Description: Using a model of plankton and organic-matter cycling we demonstrate that variable stoichiometric ratios can lead to a more than 5-fold higher sensitivity of simulated carbon export to atmospheric N deposition in the ultra-oligotrophic eastern part of the North Atlantic subtropical gyre compared to the westerly oligotrophic region near Bermuda, often used as a reference site for subtropical regions. Stronger nutrient limitation in the ultra-oligotrophic east causes higher phytoplankton C:N ratios and lower carbon assimilation efficiency of zooplankton in the model, which results in a higher export efficiency of carbon to the deep ocean compared to the less nutrient-limited western site. Our results indicate that previous estimates of oceanic carbon uptake associated with atmospheric nitrogen deposition may not be fully robust and that spatial variability in nutrient stress and ecological stoichiometry could significantly affect the biogeochemical impact of increasing atmospheric deposition of anthropogenic nitrogen.

Description: For marine biogeochemical models used in simulations of climate change scenarios, the ability to account for adaptability of marine ecosystems to environmental change becomes a concern. The potential for adaptation is expected to be larger for a diverse ecosystem compared to a monoculture of a single type of (model) algae, such as typically included in biogeochemical models. Recent attempts to simulate phytoplankton diversity in global marine ecosystem models display remarkable qualitative agreement with observed patterns of species distributions. However, modeled species diversity tends to be systematically lower than observed and, in many regions, is smaller than the number of potentially limiting nutrients. According to resource competition theory, the maximum number of coexisting species at equilibrium equals the number of limiting resources. By simulating phytoplankton communities in a chemostat model and in a global circulation model, we show here that a systematic underestimate of phytoplankton diversity may result from the standard modeling assumption of identical stoichiometry for the different phytoplankton types. Implementing stoichiometric variation among the different marine algae types in the models allows species to generate different resource supply niches via their own ecological impact. This is shown to increase the level of phytoplankton coexistence both in a chemostat model and in a global self-assembling ecosystem model. Key Points: - Common Redfield stoichiometry in plankton models impedes phytoplankton diversity - Stoichiometric plasticity increases the chance for sustained diversity - Modelers should go beyond Redfield stoichiometry in multi-phytoplankton models

Description: Recent suggestions to reduce the accumulation of anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have included ocean fertilization by artificial upwelling. Our coupled carbon‐climate model simulations suggest that artificial upwelling may, under most optimistic assumptions, be able to sequester atmospheric CO2 at a rate of about 0.9 PgC/yr. However, the model predicts that about 80% of the carbon sequestered is stored on land, as a result of reduced respiration at lower air temperatures brought about by upwelling of cold waters. This remote and distributed carbon sequestration would make monitoring and verification particularly challenging. A second caveat predicted by our simulations is that whenever artificial upwelling is stopped, simulated surface temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations rise quickly and for decades to centuries to levels even somewhat higher than experienced in a world that never engaged in artificial upwelling.

Description: Oceanic uptake and long-term storage of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are strongly driven by the marine “biological pump,” i.e., sinking of biotically fixed inorganic carbon and nutrients from the surface into the deep ocean (Sarmiento and Bender, 1994; Volk and Hoffert, 1985). Sinking velocity of marine particles depends on seawater viscosity, which is strongly controlled by temperature (Sharqawy et al., 2010). Consequently, marine particle flux is accelerated as ocean temperatures increase under global warming (Bach et al., 2012). Here we show that this previously overlooked “viscosity effect” could have profound impacts on marine biogeochemical cycling and carbon uptake over the next centuries to millennia. In our global warming simulation, the viscosity effect accelerates particle sinking by up to 25%, thereby effectively reducing the portion of organic matter that is respired in the surface ocean. Accordingly, the biological carbon pump's efficiency increases, enhancing the sequestration of atmospheric CO2 into the ocean. This effect becomes particularly important on longer time scales when warming reaches the ocean interior. At the end of our simulation (4000 A.D.), oceanic carbon uptake is 17% higher, atmospheric CO2 concentration is 180 ppm lower, and the increase in global average surface temperature is 8% weaker when considering the viscosity effect. Consequently, the viscosity effect could act as a long-term negative feedback mechanism in the global climate system.

Description: The ocean is responsible for up to a third of total global nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, but uncertainties in emission rates of this potent greenhouse gas are high (〉100%). Here we use a marine biogeochemical model to assess six major uncertainties in estimates of N2O production, thereby providing guidance in how future studies may most effectively reduce uncertainties in current and future marine N2O emissions. Potential surface N2O production from nitrification causes the largest uncertainty in N2O emissions (estimated up to ~1.6 Tg N yr-1, or 48% of modeled values), followed by the unknown oxygen concentration at which N2O production switches to N2O consumption (0.8 Tg N yr-1, or 24% of modeled values). Other uncertainties are minor, cumulatively changing regional emissions by 〈15%. If production of N2O by surface nitrification could be ruled out in future studies, uncertainties in marine N2O emissions would be halved.

Description: The widely used concept of constant ”Redfield” phytoplankton stoichiometry is often applied for estimating which nutrient limits phytoplankton growth in the surface ocean. Culture experiments, in contrast, show strong relations between growth conditions and cellular stoichiometry with often substantial deviations from Redfield stoichiometry. Here we investigate to what extent both views agree by analyzing remote sensing and in situ data with an optimality-based model of nondiazotrophic phytoplankton growth in order to infer seasonally varying patterns of colimitation by light, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) in the global ocean. Our combined model-data analysis suggests strong N and N-P colimitation in the tropical ocean, seasonal light, and N-P colimitation in the Northern Hemisphere, and strong light limitation only during winter in the Southern Ocean. The eastern equatorial Pacific appears as the only ocean area that is essentially not limited by N, P, or light. Even though our optimality-based approach specifically accounts for flexible stoichiometry, inferred patterns of N and P limitation are to some extent consistent with those obtained from an analysis of surface inorganic nutrients with respect to the Redfield N:P ratio. Iron is not part of our analysis, implying that we cannot accurately predict N cell quotas in high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll regions. Elsewhere, we do not expect a major effect of iron on the relative distribution of N, P, and light colimitation areas. The relative importance of N, P, and light in limiting phytoplankton growth diagnosed here by combining observations and an optimal growth model provides a useful constraint for models used to predict future marine biological production under changing environmental conditions.

Description: Understanding the causes of the observed expansion of tropical ocean's oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) is hampered by large biases in the representation of oxygen distribution in climate models, pointing to incorrectly represented mechanisms. Here we assess the oxygen budget in a global biogeochemical circulation model, focusing on the Atlantic Ocean. While a coarse (0.5°) configuration displays the common bias of too large and too intense OMZs, the oxygen concentration in an eddying (0.1°) configuration is higher and closer to observations. This improvement is traced to a stronger oxygen supply by a more realistic representation of the equatorial and off-equatorial undercurrents, outweighing the concurrent increase in oxygen consumption associated with the stronger nutrient supply. The sensitivity of the eastern tropical Atlantic oxygen budget to the equatorial current intensity suggests that temporal changes in the eastward oxygen transport from the well-oxygenated western boundary region might partly explain variations in the OMZs.