ALBERT

Description: A method to constrain carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from open biomass burning by using satellite observations of co-emitted species and a chemistry-transport model (CTM) is proposed and applied to the case of wildfires in Siberia. CO2 emissions are assessed by means of an emission model assuming a direct relationship between the biomass burning rate (BBR) and the Fire Radiative Power (FRP) derived from the MODIS measurements. The key features of the method are (1) estimating the FRP-to-BBR conversion factors (α) for different vegetative land cover types by assimilating the satellite observations of co-emitted species into the CTM, (2) optimal combination of the estimates of α derived independently from satellite observations of different species (CO and aerosol in this study), and (3) estimation of the diurnal cycle of the fire emissions directly from the FRP measurements. Values of α for forest and grassland fires in Siberia and their uncertainties are estimated by using the IASI carbon monoxide (CO) retrievals and the MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements combined with outputs from the CHIMERE mesoscale chemistry transport model. The constrained CO emissions are validated through comparison of the respective simulations with the independent data of ground based CO measurements at the ZOTTO site. Using our optimal regional-scale estimates of the conversion factors (which are found to be in agreement with the earlier published estimates obtained from local measurements of experimental fires), the total CO2 emissions from wildfires in Siberia in 2012 are estimated to be in the range from 262 to 477 Tg C, with the optimal (maximum likelihood) value of 354 Tg C. Sensitivity test cases featuring different assumptions regarding the injection height and diurnal variations of emissions indicate that the derived estimates of the total CO2 emissions in Siberia are robust with respect to the modelling options (the different estimates vary within less than 10% of their magnitude). The obtained CO2 emission estimates for several years are compared with the independent estimates provided by the GFED3.1 and GFASv1.0 global emission inventories. It is found that our "top-down" estimates for the total annual biomass burning CO2 emissions in the period from 2007 to 2011 in Siberia are by factors of 2.3 and 1.7 larger than the respective bottom-up estimates; these discrepancies cannot be fully explained by uncertainties in our estimates. There are also considerable differences in the spatial distribution of the different emission estimates; some of those differences have a systematic character and require further analysis.

Description: Conceptual models suggest that stability of organic carbon (OC) in soil depends on the source of plant litter, occlusion within aggregates, incorporation in organo-mineral complexes, and location within the soil profile. Density fractionation is a useful tool to study the relevance of OC stabilization in aggregates and in association with minerals, but it has rarely been applied to full soil profiles. We aim to determine factors shaping the depth profiles of physically unprotected and mineral associated OC and test their relevance for OC stability across a range of European soils that vary in vegetation, soil types, parent material, and land use. At each of the 12 study sites, 10 soil cores were sampled to 60 cm depth and subjected to density separation. Bulk soil samples and density fractions (free light fractions – fLF, occluded light fractions – oLF, heavy fractions – HF) were analysed for OC, total nitrogen (TN), δ14C, and Δ14C. Bulk samples were also incubated to determine CO2 evolution per g OC in the samples (specific mineralization rates) as an indicator for OC stability. Depth profiles of OC in the light fraction (LF-OC) matched those of roots for undisturbed grassland and forest sites, suggesting that roots are shaping the depth distribution of LF-OC. Organic C in the HF declined less with soil depth than LF-OC and roots, especially at grassland sites. The decrease in Δ14C (increase in age) of HF-OC with soil depth was related to soil pH as well as to dissolved OC fluxes. This indicates that dissolved OC translocation contributes to the formation of subsoil HF-OC and shapes the Δ14C profiles. The LF at three sites were rather depleted in 14C, indicating the presence of fossil material such as coal and lignite, probably inherited from the parent material. At the other sites, modern Δ14C signatures and positive correlations between specific mineralization rates and fLF-OC indicate the fLF is a potentially available energy and nutrient source for subsurface microorganisms throughout the profile. Declining specific mineralization rates with soil depth confirm greater stability of OC in subsoils across sites. The overall importance of OC stabilization by binding to minerals was demonstrated by declining specific mineralization rates with increasing contributions of HF-OC to bulk soil OC, and the low Δ14C values of HF-OC. The stability of HF-OC was greater in subsoils than in topsoils; nevertheless, a portion of HF-OC was active throughout the profile. While quantitatively less important than OC in the HF, consistent older ages of oLF-OC than fLF-OC suggest that occlusion of LF-OC in aggregates also contributes to OC stability in subsoils. Overall, our results indicate that association with minerals is the most important factor in stabilization of OC in soils, irrespective of vegetation, soil type, and land use.

Description: Globally, terrestrial ecosystems have absorbed about 30% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions over the period 2000–2007 and inter-hemispheric gradients indicate that a significant fraction of terrestrial carbon sequestration must be north of the Equator. We present a compilation of the CO2, CO, CH4 and N2O balances of Europe following a dual constraint approach in which (1) a land-based balance derived mainly from ecosystem carbon inventories and (2) a land-based balance derived from flux measurements are compared to (3) the atmospheric data-based balance derived from inversions constrained by measurements of atmospheric GHG (greenhouse gas) concentrations. Good agreement between the GHG balances based on fluxes (1294 ± 545 Tg C in CO2-eq yr−1), inventories (1299 ± 200 Tg C in CO2-eq yr−1) and inversions (1210 ± 405 Tg C in CO2-eq yr−1) increases our confidence that the processes underlying the European GHG budget are well understood and reasonably sampled. However, the uncertainty remains large and largely lacks formal estimates. Given that European net land to atmosphere exchanges are determined by a few dominant fluxes, the uncertainty of these key components needs to be formally estimated before efforts could be made to reduce the overall uncertainty. The net land-to-atmosphere flux is a net source for CO2, CO, CH4 and N2O, because the anthropogenic emissions by far exceed the biogenic sink strength. The dual-constraint approach confirmed that the European biogenic sink removes as much as 205 ± 72 Tg C yr−1 from fossil fuel burning from the atmosphere. However, This C is being sequestered in both terrestrial and inland aquatic ecosystems. If the C-cost for ecosystem management is taken into account, the net uptake of ecosystems is estimated to decrease by 45% but still indicates substantial C-sequestration. However, when the balance is extended from CO2 towards the main GHGs, C-uptake by terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems is offset by emissions of non-CO2 GHGs. As such, the European ecosystems are unlikely to contribute to mitigating the effects of climate change.

Description: The relative role of fire and of climate in determining canopy species composition and aboveground carbon stocks were investigated. Measurements were made along a transect extending from the dark taiga zone of central Siberia, where Picea and Abies dominate the canopy, into the Larix zone of eastern Siberia. We test the hypotheses that the change in canopy species composition is based (1) on climate-driven performance only, (2) on fire only, or (3) on fire-performance interactions. We show that the evergreen conifers Picea obovata and Abies sibirica are the natural late-successional species both in central and eastern Siberia, provided there has been no fire for an extended period of time. There are no changes in performance of the observed species along the transect. Fire appears to be the main factor explaining the dominance of Larix and of soil carbon. Of lesser influence were longitude as a proxy for climate, local hydrology and active-layer thickness. We can only partially explain fire return frequency, which is not only related to climate and land cover, but also to human behavior. Stand-replacing fires decreased from 300 to 50 yrs between the Yenisei Ridge and the upper Tunguska. Repeated non-stand-replacing surface fires eliminated the regeneration of Abies and Picea. With every 100 yrs since the last fire, the percentage of Larix decreased by 20%. Biomass of stems of single trees did not show signs of age-related decline. Relative diameter increment was 0.41 ± 0.20% at breast height and stem volume increased linearly over time with a rate of about 0.36 t C ha−1 yr−1 independent of age class and species. Stand biomass reached about 130 t C ha−1(equivalent to about 520 m3 ha−1). Individual trees of Larix were older than 600 yrs. The maximum age and biomass seemed to be limited by fungal rot of heart wood. 60% of old Larix and Picea and 30% of Pinus sibirica trees were affected by stem rot. Implications for the future role of fire and of plant diseases are discussed.

Description: Precise determination of changes in organic carbon (OC) stocks is prerequisite to understand the role of soils in the global cycling of carbon and to verify changes in stocks due to management. A large dataset was collected to form base to repeated soil inventories at 12 CarboEurope sites under different climate and land-use, and with different soil types. Concentration of OC, bulk density (BD), and fine earth fraction were determined to 60 cm depth at 100 sampling points per site. We investigated (1) time needed to detect changes in soil OC, assuming future re-sampling of 100 cores; (2) the contribution of different sources of uncertainties to OC stocks; (3) the effect of OC stock calculation on mass rather than volume base for change detection; and (4) the potential use of pedotransfer functions (PTF) for estimating BD in repeated inventories. The period of time needed for soil OC stocks to change strongly enough to be detectable depends on the spatial variability of soil properties, the depth increment considered, and the rate of change. Cropland sites, having small spatial variability, had lower minimum detectable differences (MDD) with 100 sampling points (105 ± 28 gC m−2 for the upper 10 cm of the soil) than grassland and forest sites (206 ± 64 and 246 ± 64 gC m−2 for 0–10 cm, respectively). Expected general trends in soil OC indicate that changes could be detectable after 2–15 yr with 100 samples if changes occurred in the upper 10 cm of stone-poor soils. Error propagation analyses showed that in undisturbed soils with low stone contents, OC concentrations contributed most to OC stock variability while BD and fine earth fraction were more important in upper soil layers of croplands and in stone rich soils. Though the calculation of OC stocks based on equivalent soil masses slightly decreases the chance to detect changes with time at most sites except for the croplands, it is still recommended to account for changing bulk densities with time. Application of PTF for the estimation of bulk densities caused considerable underestimation of total variances of OC stocks if the error associated with the PTF was not accounted for, which rarely is done in soil inventories. Direct measurement of all relevant parameters approximately every 10 yr is recommended for repeated soil OC inventories.

Description: We determine the net land to atmosphere flux of carbon in Russia, including Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, using inventory-based, eddy covariance, and inversion methods. Our high boundary estimate is −342 Tg C yr−1 from the eddy covariance method, and this is close to the upper bounds of the inventory-based Land Ecosystem Assessment and inverse models estimates. A lower boundary estimate is provided at −1350 Tg C yr−1 from the inversion models. The average of the three methods is −613.5 Tg C yr−1. The methane emission is estimated separately at 41.4 Tg C yr−1. These three methods agree well within their respective error bounds. There is thus good consistency between bottom-up and top-down methods. The forests of Russia primarily cause the net atmosphere to land flux (−692 Tg C yr−1 from the LEA. It remains however remarkable that the three methods provide such close estimates (−615, −662, −554 Tg C yr–1) for net biome production (NBP), given the inherent uncertainties in all of the approaches. The lack of recent forest inventories, the few eddy covariance sites and associated uncertainty with upscaling and undersampling of concentrations for the inversions are among the prime causes of the uncertainty. The dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) suggest a much lower uptake at −91 Tg C yr−1, and we argue that this is caused by a high estimate of heterotrophic respiration compared to other methods.

Description: Since 70% of global forests are managed and forests impact the global carbon cycle and the energy exchange with the overlying atmosphere, forest management has the potential to mitigate climate change. Yet, none of the land surface models used in Earth system models, and therefore none of today's predictions of future climate, account for the interactions between climate and forest management. We addressed this gap in modelling capability by developing and parametrizing a version of the land surface model ORCHIDEE to simulate the biogeochemical and biophysical effects of forest management. The most significant changes between the new branch called ORCHIDEE-CAN (SVN r2290) and the trunk version of ORCHIDEE (SVN r2243) are the allometric-based allocation of carbon to leaf, root, wood, fruit and reserve pools; the transmittance, absorbance and reflectance of radiation within the canopy; and the vertical discretisation of the energy budget calculations. In addition, conceptual changes towards a~better process representation occurred for the interaction of radiation with snow, the hydraulic architecture of plants, the representation of forest management and a~numerical solution for the photosynthesis formalism of Farquhar, von Caemmerer and Berry. For consistency reasons, these changes were extensively linked throughout the code. Parametrization was revisited after introducing twelve new parameter sets that represent specific tree species or genera rather than a group of unrelated species, as is the case in widely used plant functional types. Performance of the new model was compared against the trunk and validated against independent spatially explicit data for basal area, tree height, canopy strucure, GPP, albedo and evapotranspiration over Europe. For all tested variables ORCHIDEE-CAN outperformed the trunk regarding its ability to reproduce large-scale spatial patterns as well as their inter-annual variability over Europe. Depending on the data stream, ORCHIDEE-CAN had a 67 to 92% chance to reproduce the spatial and temporal variability of the validation data.