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  • Astronomy; Astrophysics  (1)
  • Meteorology and Climatology  (1)
  • 2010-2014  (2)
  • 2000-2004
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: We present a description of the theoretical framework and best practice for using the paleo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to constrain future projections of climate using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting paleo-climate changes from the present over 3 periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 thousand years before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (8501850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of paleo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitationtemperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with paleoclimate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also find that some comparisons, for instance associated with model variability, are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing timeseries, or show time dependent behaviour, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the paleo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modeling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN8476 , Climate of the Past Discussions; 9; 775-835
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Using data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT), we report the first clear gamma-ray measurement of a delay between flares from the gravitationally lensed images of a blazar. The delay was detected in B0218+357, a known double-image lensed system, during a period of enhanced gamma-ray activity with peak fluxes consistently observed to reach greater than 20-50 times its previous average flux. An auto-correlation function analysis identified a delay in the gamma-ray data of 11.46 plus or minus 0.16 days (1 sigma) that is approximately 1 day greater than previous radio measurements. Considering that it is beyond the capabilities of the LAT to spatially resolve the two images, we nevertheless decomposed individual sequences of superposing gamma-ray flares/delayed emissions. In three such approximately 8-10 day-long sequences within an approximately 4-month span, considering confusion due to overlapping flaring emission and flux measurement uncertainties, we found flux ratios consistent with approximately 1, thus systematically smaller than those from radio observations. During the first, best-defined flare, the delayed emission was detailed with a Fermi pointing, and we observed flux doubling timescales of approximately 3-6 hours implying as well extremely compact gamma-ray emitting regions.
    Keywords: Astronomy; Astrophysics
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN21851 , The Astrophysical Journal Letter (ISSN 1538-4357); 782; 2; L14
    Format: application/pdf
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