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  • 1
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-08-01
    Beschreibung: Shelter temperature and wind forecasts from numerical weather prediction models are subject to large systematic errors. Kalman filtering and model output statistics (MOS) are commonly used postprocessing methods, but how effective are they in comparison with steadily increasing resolution of the forecast model? Observations from over 1100 stations in central Europe are used to compare the different postprocessing methods and the influence of model resolution in complex and simple terrain, respectively. A 1-yr period with hourly, or at least 3-hourly, data is used to achieve statistically meaningful results. Furthermore, the importance of real-time observations as MOS predictors and the effects of daily training of the MOS equations are studied.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
    Digitale ISSN: 1558-8432
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
    Publikationsdatum: 2006-11-01
    Beschreibung: The objective of this work is to suggest a new warm-fog visibility parameterization scheme for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In situ observations collected during the Radiation and Aerosol Cloud Experiment, representing boundary layer low-level clouds, were used to develop a parameterization scheme between visibility and a combined parameter as a function of both droplet number concentration Nd and liquid water content (LWC). The current NWP models usually use relationships between extinction coefficient and LWC. A newly developed parameterization scheme for visibility, Vis = f (LWC, Nd), is applied to the NOAA Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model. In this model, the microphysics of fog was adapted from the 1D Parameterized Fog (PAFOG) model and then was used in the lower 1.5 km of the atmosphere. Simulations for testing the new parameterization scheme are performed in a 50-km innermost-nested simulation domain using a horizontal grid spacing of 1 km centered on Zurich Unique Airport in Switzerland. The simulations over a 10-h time period showed that visibility differences between old and new parameterization schemes can be more than 50%. It is concluded that accurate visibility estimates require skillful LWC as well as Nd estimates from forecasts. Therefore, the current models can significantly over-/underestimate Vis (with more than 50% uncertainty) depending on environmental conditions. Inclusion of Nd as a prognostic (or parameterized) variable in parameterizations would significantly improve the operational forecast models.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
    Digitale ISSN: 1558-8432
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
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