ALBERT

Description: Mixed layer is the most variable and dynamically active part of the marine environment that couples the underlying ocean to the atmosphere and plays an important role in determining the chlorophyll concentration. In this paper we examined the seasonal variability of the mixed layer depth in the Bay of Bengal, the factors responsible for it and the coupling of mixed layer processes to the chlorophyll biomass using a suite of in situ as well as remote sensing data. The basin-wide mixed layer depth was the shallowest during spring intermonsoon, which was associated with strong themohaline stratification of the upper water column. The prevailing winds which were the weakest of all the seasons were unable to break the stratification leading to the observed shallow mixed layer. Consistent with the warm oligotrophic upper ocean, the surface chlorophyll concentrations were the least and the vertical profile of chlorophyll was characterized by a subsurface chlorophyll maximum. Similarly, during summer though the monsoon winds were the strongest they were unable to break the upper ocean haline-stratification in the northern Bay brought about by a combination of excess precipitation over evaporation and fresh water influx from rivers adjoining the Bay of Bengal. Consistent with this though the nitrate concentrations were high in the northern part of the Bay, the chlorophyll concentrations were low indicating the light limitation. In contrast, in the south, advection of high salinity waters from the Arabian Sea coupled with the westward propagating Rossby waves of annual periodicity were able to decrease stability of the upper water column and the prevailing monsoon winds were able to initiate deep mixing leading to the observed deep mixed layer. The high chlorophyll concentration observed in the south resulted from the positive wind stress curl which pumped nutrient rich subsurface waters to the euphotic zone. The southward extension of the shallow mixed layer in fall intermonsoon resulted from the advection of low salinity waters from the northern Bay combined with the secondary heating by the incoming short wave radiation. The satellite-derived chlorophyll pigment concentration during fall intermonsoon was similar to that of summer but with reduced values. The basin-wide deep mixed layer during winter resulted from a combination of reduced short wave radiation, increase in salinity and comparatively stronger winds. The mismatch between the low nitrate and comparatively higher chlorophyll biomass during winter indicated the efficacy of the limited nitrate data to adequately resolve the coupling between the mixed layer processes and the chlorophyll biomass.

Description: Very Low Frequency (VLF) disturbances in the ionospheric electric field observed by DEMETER satellite prior to three different earthquakes that occurred during the years 2008–2009 have been presented. The electromagnetic wave data has been analyzed for few days before the earthquake with special attention to the variation in spectral characteristics and non-linear effects using the statistical and wavelet based techniques. Results indicate that the earthquake preparation process may disturb the ionospheric plasma and these disturbances can reach the non-linear stage leading to the strong variations in the electromagnetic field and plasma parameters. The enhancement in statistical parameters shows the coherent structure and intermittent phenomenon which is the signature of turbulence. The characteristics features of VLF disturbances have further been studied using the wavelet and bispectral analysis tools which provide useful information on the plasma turbulence.

Description: The identification of snow avalanche release areas is a very difficult task. The release mechanism of snow avalanches depends on many different terrain, meteorological, snowpack and triggering parameters and their interactions, which are very difficult to assess. In many alpine regions such as the Indian Himalaya, nearly no information on avalanche release areas exists mainly due to the very rough and poorly accessible terrain, the vast size of the region and the lack of avalanche records. However avalanche release information is urgently required for numerical simulation of avalanche events to plan mitigation measures, for hazard mapping and to secure important roads. The Rohtang tunnel access road near Manali, Himachal Pradesh, India, is such an example. By far the most reliable way to identify avalanche release areas is using historic avalanche records and field investigations accomplished by avalanche experts in the formation zones. But both methods are not feasible for this area due to the rough terrain, its vast extent and lack of time. Therefore, we develop an operational, easy-to-use automated potential release area (PRA) detection tool in Python/ArcGIS which uses high spatial resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) and forest cover information derived from airborne remote sensing instruments as input. Such instruments can acquire spatially continuous data even over inaccessible terrain and cover large areas. We validate our tool using a database of historic avalanches acquired over 56 yr in the neighborhood of Davos, Switzerland, and apply this method for the avalanche tracks along the Rohtang tunnel access road. This tool, used by avalanche experts, delivers valuable input to identify focus areas for more-detailed investigations on avalanche release areas in remote regions such as the Indian Himalaya and is a precondition for large-scale avalanche hazard mapping.

Description: A temporal increase of ~5‰ in the average nitrogen isotopic composition (δ15NPON) of surface particulate organic nitrogen was observed in the open north-eastern Arabian Sea during January to late February-early March 2003, despite the presence of T. erithraeum (up to ~11%), a diazotroph that fixes atmospheric N2, in the latter period. Hydrographic conditions and residence time of nitrate in the water column suggested that this increase could be a combined effect of denitrification in the subsurface layer and inefficient utilization of nitrate entrained in the water column during January.

Description: Terrestrial heat flow is considered an important parameter in studying the regional geotectonic and geodynamic evolutionary history of any region. However, its distribution is still very uneven. There is hardly any information available for many geodynamically important areas. In the present study, we provide a methodology to predict the surface heat flow in areas, where detailed seismic information such as depth to the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB) and crustal structure is known. The tool was first tested in several geotectonic blocks around the world and then used to predict the surface heat flow for the 2001 Bhuj earthquake region of Kachchh, India, which has been seismically active since historical times and where aftershock activity is still continuing nine years after the 2001 main event. Surface heat flow for this region is estimated to be about 61.3 mW m−2. Beneath this region, heat flow input from the mantle as well as the temperatures at the Moho are quite high at around 44 mW m−2 and 630 °C, respectively, possibly due to thermal restructuring of the underlying crust and mantle lithosphere. In absence of conventional data, the proposed tool may be used to estimate a first order heat flow in continental regions for geotectonic studies, as it is also unaffected by the subsurface climatic perturbations that percolate even up to 2000 m depth.

Description: The present study reports the VLF (very low frequency) sub-ionospheric perturbations observed on transmitter JJI (22.1 kHz), Japan, received at the Indian low-latitude station, Allahabad ( geographic lat. 25.41° N, long 81.93° E), due to Wenchuan earthquake (EQ) that occurred on 12 May 2008 with the magnitude 7.9 and at the depth of 19 km in Sichuan province of Southwest China, located at 31.0° N, 103.4° E. The nighttime amplitude fluctuation analysis gives a significant increase in fluctuation and dispersion two days before EQ, when it crosses 2σ criterion. However, there was no significant change observed in the amplitude trend. The diurnal amplitude variation shows a significant increase in the amplitude of JJI signal on 11 and 12 May 2008. The gravity wave channel and changes in the electric field associated with this EQ seem to be the potential factors of the observed nighttime amplitude fluctuation, dispersion, and significant increase in the signal strength.

Description: Land use changes are altering the hydrologic system and have potentially large impacts on water resources. Rapid socio-economic development drives land use change. This is particularly true in the case of the rapidly developing city of Pune, India. The present study aims at analyzing past land use changes between 1989 and 2009 and their impacts on the water balance in the Mula and Mutha Rivers catchment upstream of Pune. Land use changes were identified from three Rivers catchment multitemporal land use classifications for the cropping years 1989/1990, 2000/2001, and 2009/2010. The hydrologic model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to assess impacts on runoff and evapotranspiration. Two model runs were performed and compared using the land use classifications of 1989/1990 and 2009/2010. The main land use changes were identified as an increase of urban area from 5.1% to 10.1% and cropland from 9.7% to 13.5% of the catchment area during the 20 yr period. Urbanization was mainly observed in the eastern part and conversion to cropland in the mid-northern part of the catchment. At the catchment scale we found that the impacts of these land use changes on the water balance cancel each other out. However, at the sub-basin scale urbanization led to an increase of the water yield by up to 7.6%, and a similar decrease of evapotranspiration, whereas the increase of cropland resulted in an increase of evapotranspiration by up to 5.9%.

Description: Many flow and transport phenomena, ranging from delayed storage in pumping tests to tailing in river or aquifer tracer breakthrough curves or slow kinetics in reactive transport, display non-equilibrium (NE) behavior. These phenomena are usually modeled by non-local in time formulations, such as multi-porosity, multiple processes non equilibrium, continuous time random walk, memory functions, integro-differential equations, fractional derivatives or multi-rate mass transfer (MRMT), among others. We present a MRMT formulation that can be used to represent all these models of non equilibrium. The formulation can be extended to non-linear phenomena. Here, we develop an algorithm for linear mass transfer, which is accurate, computationally inexpensive and easy to implement in existing groundwater or river flow and transport codes. We illustrate this approach by application to published data involving NE groundwater flow and solute transport in rivers and aquifers.

Description: Data assimilation (DA) holds considerable potential for improving hydrologic predictions as demonstrated in numerous research studies. However, advances in hydrologic DA research have not been adequately or timely implemented in operational forecast systems to improve the skill of forecasts for better informed real-world decision making. This is due in part to a lack of mechanisms to properly quantify the uncertainty in observations and forecast models in real-time forecasting situations and to conduct the merging of data and models in a way that is adequately efficient and transparent to operational forecasters. The need for effective DA of useful hydrologic data into the forecast process has become increasingly recognized in recent years. This motivated a hydrologic DA workshop in Delft, the Netherlands in November 2010, which focused on advancing DA in operational hydrologic forecasting and water resources management. As an outcome of the workshop, this paper reviews, in relevant detail, the current status of DA applications in both hydrologic research and operational practices, and discusses the existing or potential hurdles and challenges in transitioning hydrologic DA research into cost-effective operational forecasting tools, as well as the potential pathways and newly emerging opportunities for overcoming these challenges. Several related aspects are discussed, including (1) theoretical or mathematical aspects in DA algorithms, (2) the estimation of different types of uncertainty, (3) new observations and their objective use in hydrologic DA, (4) the use of DA for real-time control of water resources systems, and (5) the development of community-based, generic DA tools for hydrologic applications. It is recommended that cost-effective transition of hydrologic DA from research to operations should be helped by developing community-based, generic modeling and DA tools or frameworks, and through fostering collaborative efforts among hydrologic modellers, DA developers, and operational forecasters.

Description: The lagged rank cross-correlation between model-derived root-zone soil moisture estimates and remotely sensed vegetation indices (VI) is examined between January 2000 and December 2010 to quantify the skill of various soil moisture models for agricultural drought monitoring. Examined modeling strategies range from a simple antecedent precipitation index to the application of modern land surface models (LSMs) based on complex water and energy balance formulations. A quasi-global evaluation of lagged VI/soil moisture cross-correlation suggests, when globally averaged across the entire annual cycle, soil moisture estimates obtained from complex LSMs provide little added skill (〈 5% in relative terms) in anticipating variations in vegetation condition relative to a simplified water accounting procedure based solely on observed precipitation. However, larger amounts of added skill (5–15% in relative terms) can be identified when focusing exclusively on the extra-tropical growing season and/or utilizing soil moisture values acquired by averaging across a multi-model ensemble.