ALBERT

Description: IceBern2D is a vertically integrated ice sheet model to investigate the ice distribution on long timescales under different climatic conditions. It is forced by simulated fields of surface temperature and precipitation of the last glacial maximum and present day climate from a comprehensive climate model. This constant forcing is adjusted to changes in ice elevation. Bedrock sinking and sea level are a function of ice volume. Due to its reduced complexity and computational efficiency, the model is well-suited for extensive sensitivity studies and ensemble simulations on extensive temporal and spatial scales. It shows good quantitative agreement with standardized benchmarks on an artificial domain (EISMINT). Present day and last glacial maximum ice distributions on the Northern Hemisphere are also simulated with good agreement. Glacial ice volume in Eurasia is underestimated due to the lack of ice shelves in our model. The efficiency of the model is utilized by running an ensemble of 400 simulations with perturbed model parameters and two different estimates of the climate at the last glacial maximum. The sensitivity to the imposed climate boundary conditions and the positive degree day factor β, i.e., the surface mass balance, outweighs the influence of parameters that disturb the flow of ice. This justifies the use of simplified dynamics as a means to achieve computational efficiency for simulations that cover several glacial cycles. The sensitivity of the model to changes in surface temperature is illustrated as a hysteresis based on 5 million year long simulations.

Description: Under the protocols of the Paleoclimate and Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Projects a number of simulations were produced that provide a range of potential climate evolutions from the last millennium to the end of the current century. Here, we present the first simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which includes an interactive carbon cycle, that continuously covers the last millennium, the historical period, and the twenty-first century. Besides state-of-the-art forcing reconstructions, we apply a modified reconstruction of total solar irradiance to shed light on the issue of forcing uncertainty in the context of the last millennium. Nevertheless, we find that structural uncertainties between different models can still dominate over forcing uncertainty for quantities such as hemispheric temperatures or the land and ocean carbon cycle response. Comparing with other model simulations we find forced decadal-scale variability to occur mainly after volcanic eruptions, while during other periods internal variability masks potentially forced signals and calls for larger ensembles in paleoclimate modeling studies. At the same time, we fail to attribute millennial temperature trends to orbital forcing, as has been suggested recently. The climate-carbon cycle sensitivity in CESM during the last millennium is estimated to be about 1.3 ppm °C−1. However, the dependence of this sensitivity on the exact time period and scale illustrates the prevailing challenge of deriving robust constrains on this quantity from paleoclimate proxies. In particular, the response of the land carbon cycle to volcanic forcing shows fundamental differences between different models. In CESM the tropical land dictates the response to volcanoes with a distinct behavior for large and moderate eruptions. Under anthropogenic emissions, global land and ocean carbon uptake rates emerge from the envelope of interannual natural variability as simulated for the last millennium by about year 1947 and 1877, respectively.

Description: Under the protocols of phase 3 of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project, a number of simulations were produced that provide a range of potential climate evolutions from the last millennium to the end of the current century. Here, we present the first simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which includes an interactive carbon cycle, that covers the last millennium. The simulation is continued to the end of the twenty-first century. Besides state-of-the-art forcing reconstructions, we apply a modified reconstruction of total solar irradiance to shed light on the issue of forcing uncertainty in the context of the last millennium. Nevertheless, we find that structural uncertainties between different models can still dominate over forcing uncertainty for quantities such as hemispheric temperatures or the land and ocean carbon cycle response. Compared to other model simulations, we find forced decadal-scale variability to occur mainly after volcanic eruptions, while during other periods internal variability masks potentially forced signals and calls for larger ensembles in paleoclimate modeling studies. At the same time, we were not able to attribute millennial temperature trends to orbital forcing, as has been suggested recently. The climate–carbon-cycle sensitivity in CESM during the last millennium is estimated to be between 1.0 and 2.1 ppm °C−1. However, the dependence of this sensitivity on the exact time period and scale illustrates the prevailing challenge of deriving robust constraints on this quantity from paleoclimate proxies. In particular, the response of the land carbon cycle to volcanic forcing shows fundamental differences between different models. In CESM the tropical land dictates the response to volcanoes, with a distinct behavior for large and moderate eruptions. Under anthropogenic emissions, global land and ocean carbon uptake rates emerge from the envelope of interannual natural variability by about year 1947 and 1877, respectively, as simulated for the last millennium.

Description: Because the total air content (TAC) of polar ice is directly affected by the atmospheric pressure, its record in polar ice cores was considered as a proxy for past ice sheet elevation changes. However the Antarctic ice core TAC record is known to also contain an insolation signature, although the underlying physical mechanisms are still a matter of debate. Here we present a high-resolution TAC record over the whole North Greenland Ice Core Project ice core, covering the last 120 000 years, which independently supports an insolation signature in Greenland. Wavelet analysis reveals a clear precession and obliquity signal similar to previous findings on Antarctic TAC, with different insolation history. In our high-resolution record we also find a decrease of 3–5 % (3–4.2 mL kg−1) in TAC as a response to Dansgaard-Oeschger-Events (DO-events). TAC starts to decrease in parallel to increasing Greenland surface temperature and slightly before CH4 reacts to the warming, but also shows a two-step decline that lasts for several centuries into the warm phase/interstadial. The TAC response is larger than expected considering only local temperature and atmospheric pressure as a driver, pointing to transient firnification response caused by the accumulation-induced increase in the load on the firn at bubble close-off, while temperature changes deeper in the firn are still small.

Description: High-precision ice core data on both atmospheric CO2 concentrations and their carbon isotopic composition (δ13Catm) provide improved constraints on the marine and terrestrial processes responsible for carbon cycle changes during the last two interglacials and the preceding glacial/interglacial transitions.

Description: Continuous records of the atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG) CO2, CH4, and N2O are necessary input data for transient climate simulations and their related radiative forcing important components in analyses of climate sensitivity and feedbacks. Since the available data from ice cores are discontinuous and partly ambiguious a well-documented decision process during data compilation followed by some interpolating post- processing are necessary to obtain those desired time series. Here we document our best-guess data compilation of published ice core records and recent measurements on firn air and atmospheric samples covering the period from the penultimate glacial maximum (∼156 kyr BP) to 2016 CE. A smoothing spline method is applied to translate the discrete and irregularly spaced data points in continuous time series. These splines are assumed to represent the evolution of the atmospheric mixing ratios for the three GHGs. Global-mean radiative forcing for each GHG is computed using well-established, simple formulations. Newest published age scales are used for the ice core data. While CO2 is representing an integrated global signal, we compile only a southern hemisphere record of CH4 and identify how much larger a northern hemisphere or global CH4 record might have been due to its interhemispheric gradient. Data resolution and uncertainties are considered in the spline procedure and typical cutoff periods, defining the degree of smoothing, range from 5000 years for the less resolved older parts of the records to 4 years for the densely- sampled recent years. The data sets describe seamlessly the GHG evolution on orbital and millennial time scales for glacial and glacial-interglacial variations and on centennial and decadal time scales for the anthropogenic period.