ALBERT

Description: Climate and marine biogeochemistry changes over the Holocene are investigated based on transient global climate and biogeochemistry model simulations over the last 9500 years. The simulations are forced by accelerated and non-accelerated orbital parameters, respectively, and atmospheric pCO2, CH4, and N2O. The analysis focusses on key climatic parameters of relevance to the marine biogeochemistry, and on the physical and biogeochemical processes that drive atmosphere–ocean carbon fluxes and changes in the oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). The simulated global mean ocean temperature is characterized by a mid-Holocene cooling and a late Holocene warming, a common feature among Holocene climate simulations which, however, contradicts a proxy-derived mid-Holocene climate optimum. As the most significant result, and only in the non-accelerated simulation, we find a substantial increase in volume of the OMZ in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) continuing into the late Holocene. The concurrent increase in apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) and age of the water mass within the EEP OMZ can be attributed to a weakening of the deep northward inflow into the Pacific. This results in a large-scale mid-to-late Holocene increase in AOU in most of the Pacific and hence the source regions of the EEP OMZ waters. The simulated expansion of the EEP OMZ raises the question of whether the deoxygenation that has been observed over the last 5 decades could be a – perhaps accelerated – continuation of an orbitally driven decline in oxygen. Changes in global mean biological production and export of detritus remain of the order of 10 %, with generally lower values in the mid-Holocene. The simulated atmosphere–ocean CO2 flux would result in atmospheric pCO2 changes of similar magnitudes to those observed for the Holocene, but with different timing. More technically, as the increase in EEP OMZ volume can only be simulated with the non-accelerated model simulation, non-accelerated model simulations are required for an analysis of the marine biogeochemistry in the Holocene. Notably, the long control experiment also displays similar magnitude variability to the transient experiment for some parameters. This indicates that also long control runs are required when investigating Holocene climate and marine biogeochemistry, and that some of the Holocene variations could be attributed to internal variability of the atmosphere–ocean system.

Description: At present the Arabian Sea has a permanent oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) at water depths between about 100 m and 1200 m. Active denitrification in this OMZ is recorded by enhanced δ15N values in the sediments. Sediment cores show a δ15N increase from early to late Holocene which is contrary to the trend in other regions of water column denitrification. We calculated composite sea surface temperature (SST) and δ15N in time slices of 1000 years of the last 25 ka to better understand the reasons for the establishment of the Arabian Sea OMZ and its response to changes in the Asian monsoon system. Pleistocene stadial δ15N values of 4–6 ‰ suggest that denitrification was inactive or weak. During interstadials (IS) and the entire Holocene, δ15N values of 〉 7 ‰ indicate enhanced denitrification and a stronger OMZ. This coincides with active monsoonal upwelling along the western margins of the basin as indicated by low SST. Stronger ventilation of the OMZ in the early to mid-Holocene period during the most intense southwest monsoon and vigorous upwelling is reflected in lower δ15N compared to the late Holocene. The displacement of the core of the OMZ from the region of maximum productivity in the western Arabian Sea to its present position in the northeast was established during the last 4–5 ka. This was probably caused by (i) rising oxygen consumption due to enhanced northeast monsoon driven biological productivity, in combination with (ii) reduced ventilation due to a longer residence time of OMZ waters.

Description: During the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) substantial efforts were made to systematically assess the skill of Earth system models. One goal was to check how realistically representative marine biogeochemical tracer distributions could be reproduced by models. In routine assessments model historical hindcasts were compared with available modern biogeochemical observations. However, these assessments considered neither how close modeled biogeochemical reservoirs were to equilibrium nor the sensitivity of model performance to initial conditions or to the spin-up protocols. Here, we explore how the large diversity in spin-up protocols used for marine biogeochemistry in CMIP5 Earth system models (ESMs) contributes to model-to-model differences in the simulated fields. We take advantage of a 500-year spin-up simulation of IPSL-CM5A-LR to quantify the influence of the spin-up protocol on model ability to reproduce relevant data fields. Amplification of biases in selected biogeochemical fields (O2, NO3, Alk-DIC) is assessed as a function of spin-up duration. We demonstrate that a relationship between spin-up duration and assessment metrics emerges from our model results and holds when confronted with a larger ensemble of CMIP5 models. This shows that drift has implications for performance assessment in addition to possibly aliasing estimates of climate change impact. Our study suggests that differences in spin-up protocols could explain a substantial part of model disparities, constituting a source of model-to-model uncertainty. This requires more attention in future model intercomparison exercises in order to provide quantitatively more correct ESM results on marine biogeochemistry and carbon cycle feedbacks.

Description: Despite intense efforts, the mechanisms that drive glacial–interglacial changes in atmospheric pCO2 are not fully understood. Here, we aim at quantifying the potential contribution of aeolian dust deposition changes to the atmospheric pCO2 drawdown during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). To this end, we use the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) and the embedded Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model (HAMOCC), including a new parameterization of particle ballasting that accounts for the acceleration of sinking organic soft tissue in the ocean by higher-density biogenic calcite and opal particles, as well as mineral dust. Sensitivity experiments with reconstructed LGM dust deposition rates indicate that the acceleration of detritus by mineral dust played a small role in atmospheric pCO2 variations during glacial–interglacial cycles – on the order of 5 ppmv, compared to the reconstructed ∼80 ppmv rise in atmospheric pCO2 during the last deglaciation. The additional effect of the LGM dust deposition, namely the enhanced fertilization by the iron that is associated with the glacial dust, likely played a more important role; although the full iron fertilization effect can not be estimated in the particular model version used here due to underestimated present-day non-diazotroph iron limitation, fertilization of diazotrophs in the tropical Pacific already leads to an atmospheric pCO2 drawdown of around 10 ppmv.

Description: Despite intense efforts, the mechanisms that drive glacial–interglacial changes in atmospheric pCO2 are not fully understood. Here, we aim at quantifying the potential contribution of aeolian dust deposition changes to the atmospheric pCO2 drawdown during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). To this end, we use the ocean circulation and carbon cycle model MPIOM/HAMOCC, including a new parameterisation of particle ballasting that accounts for the acceleration of sinking organic soft tissue in the ocean by higher density biogenic calcite and opal particles, as well as mineral dust. Sensitivity experiments with reconstructed LGM dust deposition rates indicate that the acceleration of detritus by mineral dust likely played a small role for atmospheric pCO2 variations during glacial–interglacial cycles – on the order of 5ppmv, compared to the reconstructed ∼80ppmv-rise of atmospheric pCO2 during the last deglaciation. The additional effect of the LGM dust deposition, namely the enhanced fertilisation by the iron that is associated with the glacial dust, played a more important role – leading to a pCO2-drawdown by more than 8ppmv in our LGM sensitivity experiments despite an underestimated iron-limitation in the used model setup.

Description: At present, the Arabian Sea has a permanent oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) at water depths between about 100 and 1200 m. Active denitrification in the upper part of the OMZ is recorded by enhanced δ15N values in the sediments. Sediment cores show a δ15N increase during the middle and late Holocene, which is contrary to the trend in the other two regions of water column denitrification in the eastern tropical North and South Pacific. We calculated composite sea surface temperature (SST) and δ15N ratios in time slices of 1000 years of the last 25 kyr to better understand the reasons for the establishment of the Arabian Sea OMZ and its response to changes in the Asian monsoon system. Low δ15N values of 4–7 ‰ during the last glacial maximum (LGM) and stadials (Younger Dryas and Heinrich events) suggest that denitrification was inactive or weak during Pleistocene cold phases, while warm interstadials (ISs) had elevated δ15N. Fast changes in upwelling intensities and OMZ ventilation from the Antarctic were responsible for these strong millennial-scale variations during the glacial. During the entire Holocene δ15N values 〉 6 ‰ indicate a relatively stable OMZ with enhanced denitrification. The OMZ develops parallel to the strengthening of the SW monsoon and monsoonal upwelling after the LGM. Despite the relatively stable climatic conditions of the Holocene, the δ15N records show regionally different trends in the Arabian Sea. In the upwelling areas in the western part of the basin, δ15N values are lower during the mid-Holocene (4.2–8.2 ka BP) compared to the late Holocene (

Description: Climate and marine biogeochemistry changes over the Holocene are investigated based on transient global climate and biogeochemistry model simulations over the last 9,500 yr. The simulations are forced by accelerated and non-accelerated orbital parameters, respectively, and atmospheric pCO2. The analysis focusses on key climatic parameters of relevance to the marine biogeochemistry, on the processes that determine the strength of the carbon pumps that drive the ocean–atmosphere carbon flux, and on the oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) in the ocean. The most pronounced changes occur in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) OMZ, and in the North Atlantic. Changes in global mean values of biological production and export of detritus remain modest, with generally lower values in the mid-Holocene. The simulated ocean–atmosphere CO2-flux is of the right order of magnitude to explain the observed atmospheric pCO2 evolution, but with different timing. As the most significant result, we find a substantial increase in volume of the OMZ in the EEP continuing into the late Holocene in the non-accelerated simulation. The concurrent increase of age of the water mass within the EEP OMZ suggests that this growth is driven by a slow down of the circulation in the interior of the deep Pacific. This results in large scale deoxygenation in the deeper Pacific and hence the source regions of the EEP OMZ waters from mid-to-late Holocene. The simulated expansion of the OMZ raises the question whether the currently observed deoxygenation is a continuation of the orbitally driven decline in oxygen, or if it is already a result of the occuring climate change from anthropogenic forcing as widely assumed. An additional explanation would be that the anthropogenic forcing amplifies the natural forcing. The increase in water mass age and EEP OMZ volume can only be simulated with the non-accelerated model simulation. The simulations thus demonstrate that non-accelerated experiments are required for an analysis of the marine biogeochemistry in the Holocene.

Description: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004–2013), EFF was 8.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 2.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For year 2013 alone, EFF grew to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in EFF and smaller and opposite changes between SOCEAN and SLAND compared to the past decade (2004–2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.5% (1.3–3.5%) to 10.1 ± 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 ± 2.2 GtCO2 yr−1), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 ± 55 GtC (2000 ± 200 GtCO2) for 1870–2014, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quéré et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).

Description: We performed simulations with a global model of ocean biogeochemistry forced with orbitally driven anomalies of oceanic conditions for the mid-Holocene, known as Holocene climate optimum, to investigate natural variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific oxygen minimum zone (EEP OMZ). While the global mean temperature during the mid-Holocene was likely slightly higher than the 1961–1990 mean, the sea surface temperature in the EEP was slightly lower. Mid-Holocene oxygen concentrations in the EEP OMZ are generally increased, locally by up to 50%, and the EEP OMZ volume was, depending on definition of the OMZ threshold, at least 6% lower. These higher oxygen levels are the combined result of competing physical and biogeochemical processes. Our results imply that mechanisms for past changes in the EEP OMZ intensity and extension can differ from the global warming driven decline in oxygen levels observed for the recent decades and predicted for the future.