ALBERT

Description: Background A lack of objective data exists on differences in treatment practices and outcomes for MM between countries. The EMMOS study aimed to document and describe current treatment regimens and disease progression patterns of MM pts at different stages of the disease in real-world medical practice. Methods Adult pts initiating any new MM therapy, irrespective of treatment line at study entry or therapy type received, were eligible for inclusion in the EMMOS registry. A multi-staged pt/site recruitment model was applied to minimize selection bias; enrollment was stratified by country, region, and practice type. Pts' medical/disease features, treatment history, and remission status were recorded at baseline. Prospective data on treatment, efficacy, and safety were collected electronically every 3 mos until 2 yrs after the last pt enrolled. Responses were investigator-assessed (no predefined criteria). Here we report data from the final analysis of EMMOS. Pts were grouped according to receipt of high-dose chemotherapy/stem cell transplantation in any treatment line (SCT pts, non-SCT pts). Within a given line, pts may have received induction, SCT, consolidation, and/or maintenance therapy; if multiple drug combinations were used within a line, the line grouping was based on the combination received in cycle 1. Results 2358 pts were enrolled between Oct 2010-Oct 2012 in 22 countries in Europe and Africa; the last pt completed follow-up in Oct 2014. Of these, 775 pts had undergone SCT in any treatment line. Baseline characteristics in the prospective phase by starting line are shown in the Table. As expected, there was a higher proportion of younger pts (≤65 yrs) in the SCT vs non-SCT group across all treatment lines, and in both groups a higher proportion of pts in 4th + vs earlier lines with ISS stage III disease. While cytogenetics were evaluated in a small number of pts overall (670/2358 [28%]), these assessments were performed significantly more frequently in SCT vs non-SCT pts (p

Description: Introduction: Gene expression profiling (GEP) has significantly contributed to the elucidation of the molecular heterogeneity of multiple myeloma plasma cells (MMPC) and only recently it has been recommended for risk stratification. Prior to GEP MMPC need to be enriched resulting in an inability to immediately freeze bone marrow aspirates or use RNA stabilization reagents. As a result in multi-center MM trials sample processing delay due to shipping may be an important confounder of molecular analyses and risk stratification based on GEP data. In order to determine the impact of "shipping delay" on MMPC gene expression we analyzed a set of 573 newly diagnosed German MM patients including 230 in-house and 343 shipped samples. Materials and Methods: We included publicly available GEP data of newly diagnosed MM patients treated in the GMMG HD4 and MM5 trials. All samples had been processed in a central laboratory in Heidelberg and include 85 HD4 and 145 MM5 in-house and 97 HD4 and 246 MM5 shipped samples. Prediction of sample status was done on publicly available GEP, including data from the UK, UAMS and MMRC. Differential gene expression was assessed using empirical Bayes statistics in linear models for microarray data. Predictor for shipment status was generated on the MM5 cohort using prediction analysis for microarrays. Pathway enrichment analysis was done using WebGestalt. Risk signatures and molecular subgroups were obtained as previously described. Fisher's exact test was used to compare the subgroup distribution between cohorts. If applicable, results were corrected for multiple testing using the Benjamini-Hochberg method. In all statistical tests, an effect was considered statistically significant if the P-value of its corresponding statistical test was not greater than 5%. Results: Applying the Goeman's global teston the MM5 set showed that "shipping delay" significantly impacted global gene expression (P 1.5-fold and 826 a 〉2-fold difference in expression level. Differentially expressed genes were enriched in processes like ribosome biogenesis, cell cycle, and apoptosis. We observed significantly lower proliferation rates in shipped samples (P

Description: Background: During the last 15 years there has been a substantial improvement in treatment options for patients with multiple myeloma. For patients younger than 65 years high dose chemotherapy with melphalan and autologous stem cell transplantation is still regarded as the standard therapy. This very effective treatment regimen is now widely used for more than 20 years. However, the therapy of elderly patients (〉 70 years) with HDT-ASCT has only been a reserved option for a selected group of patients with a lower biological age. Therefore, for these patients only few studies have analyzed the role of HDT-ASCT regarding overall survival (OS), progression free survival (PFS) and risk assessment-which is our study subject. In addition we want to compare HDT-ASCT with the current standard of treatment for older patients like the continuous lenalidomide and dexamethasone regime (Rd) or bortezomib based regimes. Method: We retrospectively analyzed 62 elderly patients with a median age at ASCT of 71.3 years with multiple myeloma who underwent HDT-ASCT treatment at the Asklepios Hospital Altona in Hamburg, Germany between 2004 and 2013 (3 previously treated with HDT-ASCT and 59 previously untreated). Overall these patients received 86 ASCT. Primary scopes of interest were OS, PFS and treatment related mortality (TRM). Secondary outcome variables were melphalan-dosage, chronic renal failure (Durie Salmon stage A/B), tandem-therapy, ISS-Score, as well as best response after therapy. OS was calculated from beginning of therapy until death of any cause. PFS was calculated from beginning of therapy until progression. Results: The median OS was 60.8 months. TRM was 0%. Median PFS was 33.3 months (n=40). The following factors were significant regarding OS: 1. Chronic renal failure (39 vs. 65.6 months; p=0.03). 2. Higher ISS-Score (ISS III: 33.7 vs. ISS I/II: 76.7 months; p= 0.013). The following factors showed a non statistically significant trend regarding OS: 1. High melphalan dosage, at least once 200mg/m² melphalan, during HDCT-ASCT (70.3 vs. 53 months; p=0.1). 2. Response after therapy (complete remission (CR) / very good partial remission (VGPR): 74.6 vs. partial remission / minimal remission / stable disease: 59.4 months; p= 0.088). 3. Tandem therapy (single transplantation: 60.6 vs. tandem transplantation: 96.3 months; p= 0.127). Conclusion: With a median OS of more than 5 years and a TRM of 0% high dose chemotherapy with melphalan is a valid treatment option for selected elderly patients with multiple myeloma aged 〉 70 years. The median OS and PFS (60.8 months; 33.3 months) in our patient group was higher than published data with lenalidomide or bortezomib based treatments (e.g. Rd), which has a median OS of 58.9 months and a of PFS 26 month (Facon et al. 2015, Clinical Lymphoma Myeloma and Leukemia, Vol: 15, p: e134). At relapse fewer patients are eligible for HDT-ASCT than de novo patients, therefore HDT-ASCT should be used as first line therapy for suitable patients. Adverse effects of long time glucocorticoid, bortezomib and lenalidomide treatment also have a negative impact on the quality of life for myeloma patients and can lead to irreversible medical consequences. Of note, the treatment duration with high dose melphalan is shorter and has a lower cost than other treatment options for multiple myeloma, which can lead to long treatment free intervals and therefore improve the quality of life for patients. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Description: Background High-dose therapy (HDT) with autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) is the established standard-of-care for patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) who are young and/or fit. The number of older patients receiving HDT-ASCT is increasing, although they often receive lower-intensity treatment. Novel agent-based consolidation therapy can be used to improve responses following ASCT and prolong progression-free survival (PFS). The proteasome inhibitor bortezomib, given as post-ASCT consolidation therapy, resulted in an improved PFS compared with observation alone (median 33.6 vs 27.8 months, adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.70, p=0.0058) in a combined analysis of two phase 3 trials (MMY3012 [DSMM XIb; NCT00416273] and MMY3013 [DSMM X; NCT00416208]; JCO 2015;33:8511). These studies enrolled 222 patients aged ≤60 years and 158 aged 〉60 years. In this post-hoc analysis we investigated the effect of age and related treatment factors on PFS in more detail. Methods In both trials, 371 patients were randomized 1:1 following ASCT to receive four 35-day cycles of bortezomib consolidation (n=186; bortezomib 1.6 mg/m2 IV administered on days 1, 8, 15, and 22) or observation (n=185; no treatment). The primary endpoint was PFS from the start of induction chemotherapy. Response and progression were assessed at the start of each bortezomib cycle and at the end-of-treatment/observation visit (week 25), as well as during the follow-up period of 30-60 months. Patient characteristics and treatments were compared between trials; PFS following randomization was assessed separately for each study. Univariate, bivariate, and multivariate Cox regressions were conducted to evaluate the impact of treatment group, age (≤60 vs 〉60 years), single vs tandem ASCT, melphalan conditioning dose (MEL 60 group), including the HDT regimen received (MEL100 7% vs 10%; MEL140 3% vs 59%; MEL200 88% vs 31%). The rate of double transplantation was similar for the younger and older cohorts (55% vs 59%), likely due to the older patients receiving age-adjusted high-dose melphalan with a lower toxicity, allowing a similar rate of double transplantation as younger patients receiving MEL200. Among the 357 patients included in these analyses, median PFS from start of induction was 33.6 vs 27.8 months with bortezomib consolidation vs observation (log-rank p=0.0243). Median PFS for bortezomib vs observation was 33.6 vs 29.0 months (HR 0.86; p=0.3599) in the younger cohort and 33.4 vs 26.4 months (HR 0.60; p=0.0073) in the older cohort. PFS for older patients who received bortezomib consolidation was very similar to PFS in younger patients (p=0.861); survival curves were superimposable despite the older patients having received less intensive pretreatment. Univariate analysis demonstrated that treatment group (bortezomib vs observation) had an effect on PFS (HR 0.75; exploratory p-value 60 vs ≤60 years; HR 1.30), melphalan dose (200 vs

Description: Background: Internal tandem duplications (ITD) in the receptor tyrosine kinase FLT3 occur in roughly 25% of younger adult patients (pts) with acute myeloid leukemia (AML), implicating FLT3 as a potential target for kinase inhibitor therapy. The multi-targeted kinase inhibitor midostaurin shows potent activity against FLT3 as a single agent but also in combination with intensive chemotherapy. Aims: To evaluate the feasibility and efficacy of midostaurin in combination with intensive induction therapy and as single agent maintenance therapy after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (alloHSCT) or high-dose cytarabine (HIDAC). Methods: The study includes adult pts (age 18-70 years (yrs)) with newly diagnosed FLT3-ITD positive AML enrolled in the ongoing single-arm phase-II AMLSG 16-10 trial (NCT: NCT01477606). Pts with acute promyelocytic leukemia are not eligible. The presence of FLT3-ITD is analyzed within our diagnostic study AMLSG-BiO (NCT01252485) by Genescan-based fragment-length analysis (allelic ratio 〉0.05 required to be FLT3-ITD positive). Induction therapy consists of daunorubicin (60 mg/m², d1-3) and cytarabine (200 mg/m², continuously, d1-7); midostaurin 50 mg bid is applied from day 8 onwards until 48h before start of the next treatment cycle. A second cycle is optional. For consolidation therapy, pts proceed to alloHSCT as first priority; if alloHSCT is not feasible, pts receive three cycles of age-adapted HIDAC in combination with midostaurin from day 6 onwards. In all pts maintenance therapy for one year is intended. This report focuses on the first cohort of the study (n=149) recruited between June 2012 and April 2014 prior to the amendment increasing the sample size; the amendment to the study is active since October 2014. Results: At study entry patient characteristics were median age 54 years (range, 20-70, 34% ≥ 60 yrs); median white cell count (WBC) 48.4G/l (range 1.1-178G/l); karyotype, n=103 normal, n=3 t(6;9), n=2 t(9;11), n=20 intermediate-2 and n=7 high-risk according to ELN recommendations, n=14 missing; mutated NPM1 n=92 (62%). Data on response to first induction therapy were available in 147 pts; complete remission (CR) 58.5%, partial remission (PR) 20.4%, refractory disease (RD) 15% and death 6.1%. A second induction cycle was given in 34 pts. Overall response after induction therapy was CR 75% and death 7.5%. Adverse events 3°/4° reported during the first induction cycle were most frequently gastrointestinal (n=34) and infections (n=81). During induction therapy midostaurin was interrupted, dose-reduced or stopped in 55% of the pts. Overall 94 pts received an alloHSCT, 85 in first CR (n=65 age

Description: Background: Activating mutations in receptor tyrosine kinases like FLT3 (FLT3mut) lead to an aberrant signal transduction thereby causing an increased proliferation of hematopoietic cells. Internal tandem duplications (FLT3-ITD) or mutations in the tyrosine kinase domain (FLT3-TKD) occur in about 25% of younger adult patients (pts) with acute myeloid leukemia (AML), with FLT3 -ITD being associated with an unfavourable outcome. FLT3mut present an excellent target for small molecule tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI). The multi-targeted kinase inhibitor midostaurin (PKC412) is currently under investigation as a FLT3-inhibitor in combination with intensive chemotherapy. Monitoring of the efficacy of such a targeted therapy and correlation of the results with clinical outcome will be of major importance. The plasma inhibitor activity (PIA) assay allows the visualization of the level of dephosphorylation of the target under TKI therapy. Preliminary data suggest a correlation between the grade of dephosphorylation, as a marker for the activity of the TKI, and clinical outcome. Aims: To individually measure the level of FLT3 dephosphorylation by PIA analysis in a large cohort of FLT3-ITD AML pts treated within our AMLSG16-10 trial (NCT: NCT01477606) which combines midostaurin with intensive chemotherapy, and to correlate the results with clinical outcome. Methods: Plasma samples from pts (age 18-70 years) with newly diagnosed FLT3-ITD AML were obtained at different time points for PIA analysis. All pts were enrolled on the ongoing AMLSG 16-10 trial applying intensive therapy in combination with midostaurin (50mg twice a day). For consolidation therapy, pts proceeded to allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (alloHSCT) as first priority; pts not eligible for alloHSCT were intended to receive 3 cycles of age-adapted high-dose cytarabine (HiDAC) in combination with midostaurin from day 6 onwards. In all pts one year of maintenance therapy with midostaurin was intended. PIA analyses were performed at defined time points (day 15 of induction, each consolidation cycle, at the end of each treatment cycle, every 3 months during maintenance therapy) as previously described (Levis MJ, et al. Blood 2006; 108:3477-83). Results: So far, PIA analyses were performed in 63 pts (median age, 51.6 years; range, 20-70 years) during (n=63) and after (n=73) first and second induction cycle, during (n=40) and after (n=53) consolidation therapy with HiDAC as well as during maintenance therapy (n=82). During and after induction therapy median levels of phosphorylated FLT3 (p-FLT3) were 46.6% (4.5-100%,

Description: Background: Internal tandem duplications (ITD) in the receptor tyrosine kinase FLT3 occur in roughly 25% of younger adult patients (pts) with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The multi-targeted kinase inhibitor midostaurin combined with intensive chemotherapy has shown activity against AML with FLT3 mutations. However, toxicity and potential drug-drug interactions with strong CYP3A4 inhibitors such as posaconazole may necessitate dose reduction. Aims: To evaluate the impact of age and midostaurin dose-adaptation after intensive induction chemotherapy on response and outcome in AML with FLT3-ITD within the AMLSG 16-10 trial (NCT01477606). Methods: The study included adult pts (age 18-70 years (yrs)) with newly diagnosed FLT3-ITD positive AML enrolled in the ongoing single-arm phase-II AMLSG 16-10 trial. Pts with acute promyelocytic leukemia were not eligible. The presence of FLT3-ITD was analyzed within our diagnostic study AMLSG-BiO (NCT01252485) by Genescan-based DNA fragment-length analysis. Induction therapy consisted of daunorubicin (60 mg/m², d1-3) and cytarabine (200 mg/m², continuously, d1-7); midostaurin 50 mg bid was applied from day 8 until 48h before start of the next treatment cycle. A second cycle was allowed in case of partial remission (PR). For consolidation therapy, pts proceeded to allogeneic hematopoietic-cell transplantation (HCT) as first priority; if alloHCT was not feasible, pts received three cycles of age-adapted high-dose cytarabine (HDAC) in combination with midostaurin starting on day 6. In all pts one-year maintenance therapy with midostaurin was intended. The first patient entered the study in June 2012 and in April 2014, after recruitment of n=147 pts, the study was amended including a sample size increase to 284 pts and a dose reduction to 12.5% of the initial dose of midostaurin in case of co-medication with strong CYP3A4 inhibitors (e.g. posaconazole). This report focuses on age and the comparison between the first (n=147) and the second cohort (n=137) of the study in terms midostaurin dose-adaptation. Results: Patient characteristics were as follows: median age 54 yrs (range, 18-70; younger, 68% 〈 60 yrs; older, 32% ≥ 60 yrs); median white cell count 44.7G/l (range 1.1-1543 G/l); karyotype, n=161 normal, n=16 high-risk according to ELN recommendations; mutated NPM1 n=174 (59%). Data on response to first induction therapy were available in 277 pts; complete remission (CR) including CR with incomplete hematological recovery (CRi) 60%, PR 20%, refractory disease (RD) 15%, and death 5%. A second induction cycle was given in 54 pts. Overall response (CR/CRi) after induction therapy was 76% (76%, younger; 76%, older) and death 6% (4%, younger; 10% older). The dose of midostaurin during first induction therapy was reduced in 53% and 71% of patients in cohort-1 and cohort-2, respectively. Reasons for dose reduction were in 58% and 49% toxicity, and in 9% and 23% co-medication in cohort-1 and cohort-2, respectively. No difference in response to induction therapy was noted between cohorts (p=0.81). Median follow-up was 18 months. Overall 146 pts received an alloHCT, 128 in first CR (n=94 younger, n=34 older; n=92 from a matched unrelated and n=36 from a matched related donor). In pts receiving an alloHCT within the protocol in median two chemotherapy cycles were applied before transplant (range 1-4). The cumulative incidence of relapse (CIR) and death after transplant were 13% (SE 3.2%) and 16% (SE 3.5%) without differences (p=0.97, p=0.41, respectively) between younger and older patients. So far maintenance therapy was started in 86 pts, 61 pts after alloHCT and 25 pts after HDAC. Fifty-five adverse events 3°/4° were reported being attributed to midostaurin; cytopenias after alloHCT were the most frequent (29%). CIR in patients starting maintenance therapy was 20% one year after start of maintenance without difference between alloHCT and HiDAC (p=0.99). In addition, no difference in CIR was identified in patients after consolidation with alloHCT or HDAC according to dose reduction of midostaurin during first induction therapy (p=0.43, p=0.98, respectively). Median overall survival was 25 months (younger, 26 months; older 23 months; p=0.15). Conclusions: The addition of midostaurin to intensive induction therapy and as maintenance after alloHCT or HDAC is feasible and effective without an impact of age and dose adaptation on outcome. Disclosures Schlenk: Amgen: Research Funding; Pfizer: Honoraria, Research Funding. Fiedler:GSO: Other: Travel; Pfizer: Research Funding; Kolltan: Research Funding; Amgen: Consultancy, Other: Travel, Patents & Royalties, Research Funding; Gilead: Other: Travel; Ariad/Incyte: Consultancy; Novartis: Consultancy; Teva: Other: Travel. Lübbert:Celgene: Other: Travel Funding; Janssen-Cilag: Other: Travel Funding, Research Funding; Ratiopharm: Other: Study drug valproic acid. Greil:Janssen-Cilag: Honoraria; Genentech: Honoraria, Research Funding; Mundipharma: Honoraria, Research Funding; Merck: Honoraria; AstraZeneca: Honoraria; Boehringer-Ingelheim: Honoraria; GSK: Research Funding; Ratiopharm: Research Funding; Cephalon: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Celgene: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Novartis: Honoraria; Bristol-Myers-Squibb: Consultancy, Honoraria; Pfizer: Honoraria, Research Funding; Roche: Honoraria, Research Funding; Sanofi Aventis: Honoraria; Eisai: Honoraria; Amgen: Honoraria, Research Funding. Greiner:BMS: Research Funding. Paschka:ASTEX Pharmaceuticals: Consultancy; Novartis: Consultancy; Medupdate GmbH: Honoraria; Bristol-Myers Squibb: Honoraria; Pfizer Pharma GmbH: Honoraria; Celgene: Honoraria. Heuser:Bayer Pharma AG: Research Funding; Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc: Research Funding; Novartis: Consultancy, Research Funding; Celgene: Honoraria; Pfizer: Research Funding; BerGenBio: Research Funding; Tetralogic: Research Funding.

Description: Background: The well-described prognostic impact of tumor characteristics and biology in multiple myeloma (MM), such as the combination of cytogenetics, the International Staging System (ISS) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH, Moreau et. al., JCO, 2014) as well as frailty (Palumbo et al., Blood, 2015) significantly influence patient outcomes. However, only limited data on the impact of infections during therapy exist (Rajkumar et al., Lancet Oncology, 2010). Therefore, we hypothesized that severe infections during induction therapy (IT) in transplant-eligible MM influence dosage of therapies, treatment responses after IT and survival. Patients and Methods: From 05/2005 until 05/2008, 399 patients were randomly assigned to receive IT with either three cycles of VAD (vincristine, VIN, i.v. 0.4mg, days 1-4; doxorubicine, DOXO, i.v. 9mg/m2, days 1-4; dexamethasone, DEX, p.o. 40mg, days 1-4, 9-12, 17-20; n=201, arm A) or PAD (bortezomib, BTZ, i.v. 1.3mg/m2, days 1, 4, 8, 11; DOXO i.v. 9mg/m2, days 1-4; DEX p.o. 40mg, days 1-4, 9-12, 17-20; n=194, arm B), followed by high-dose melphalan (HDM) and autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) and either thalidomide (arm A) or bortezomib (arm B) maintenance within the German part of the joint GMMG-HD4/HOVON65 trial (Sonneveld et al., JCO, 2012). After exclusion of ineligible patients, 395 patients (99.0%) were evaluable for analyses. Any severe infection (equal or greater grade 3, according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, Version 4.0) during IT (at least once, defined from first until last date of application of IT medication) occurred in 105 patients (VAD n=53/198 and PAD n=52/192, 26.9% of all patients, missing data n=5). Results: Among patients with a severe infection during IT in the VAD and PAD arms, total DEX and DOXO doses (equal dosage in VAD/PAD group) were significantly lower (median DEX dose (mg/m2): 689.0 [77.7, 1014.1] vs. 742.3 [0.0, 1324.1], p

Description: Background: Novel agents such as IMIDs and proteasome inhibitors have substantially changed the therapeutic landscape in the first line treatment of multiple myeloma (MM). Better response rates and prolonged progression-free survival have lead to an improvement in overall survival (OS) with median values well beyond 5 years. Therefore to assess whether first line therapy strategies have an impact on the prognosis for patients with MM, long-term results of clinical trials with follow up covering 〉10 years are necessary. Methods: The HOVON-65/GMMG-HD4 study is a prospective randomized trial testing bortezomib+adriamycin+dexamethasone (PAD) for 3 cycles as induction prior to high-dose chemotherapy (HDT) and autologous stem cell transplantation compared to vincristine+adriamycin+dexamethasone (VAD) in the control arm. After one (HOVON) or two (GMMG) HDT maintenance was given for 2 years consisting of bortezomib every 2 weeks in the PAD arm and thalidomide 50 mg daily in the VAD arm. The study results were initially reported in 2012 (1) and with a median follow up of 91 months in 2018 (2). In this analysis we present OS results after a median follow up of 137 months. All hazard ratios (HR) are given with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Overall survival at 12 years was 32% (CI 27-37%) in the VAD arm versus 36% (CI 31-41%) in the PAD arm without significant difference in the univariate Cox model (HR 0.87, CI 0.73 - 1.03, p=0. 11 or in multivariate Cox model including ISS stage and treatment arm (HR 0.87, CI 0.73 - 1.04, p=0.12; the primary analysis) as specified in the study protocol. When other factors including age, sex, ISS stage, WHO performance status, Immunoglobulin-type, Durie and Salmon-stage, LDH, del 13q, study group and renal impairment (RI, defined as serum creatinine ≥ 2 mg/dl) were added to the Cox model, treatment in the PAD arm was a significant factor for improved OS (HR 0.84, CI 0.7 - 1.0, p=0.048). Of the remaining factors age (HR 1.02, CI 1.01 - 1.03, p=0.002), female sex (HR 0.83, CI 0.69 - 0.99, p=0.044), ISS stage (HR 1.19, CI 1.04 - 1.35, p=0.01), WHO performance status (HR 1.32, CI 1.17 - 1.48, pULN (HR 1.44, CI 1.14 - 1.82, p=0.002), del 13q (HR 1.42, CI 1.17 - 1.73, p

Description: Background Survival in multiple myeloma ranges from months to decades and the majority of patients remain incurable with current treatment approaches. Given this high variability, it would be clinically very useful to quantitatively predict survival on a continuous scale. Current risk prediction models attribute patients to 2-3 groups, i.e. high, intermediate, and low risk. Group size and survival rates largely vary between different systems. Rarely, molecular prognostic factors beyond iFISH are used. Widely accepted standard is the revised ISS score (rISS) including serum B2M, albumin, and adverse prognostic aberrations. Aim of our study was to develop quantitative prediction of individual myeloma patient's three and five year survival probability. We integrate prognostic factors into a comprehensive model, and evaluate its risk discrimination capabilities in relation to rISS. Patients and methods Symptomatic myeloma patients treated up-front with bortezomib-based induction regimen (PAD/PAd/VCD) and intention to undergo high-dose therapy and autologous stem cell transplantation with available GEP and iFISH-data (n=657) were split into training (TG, n=536) and validation group (VG, n=121). In TG and VG, 190 and 22 deaths were observed. Median f/u time was 5.4 and 3.5 years. Distribution of risk factors and 3-year overall survival (OS) were similar in both groups (80% vs 86%). Primary endpoint was OS. The following risk factors were considered for building the prognostic model: age (in years), ISS stage, elevated LDH level (〉ULN), creatinine level 〉2 g/dL, heavy chain type IgA yes/no, del17p13 yes/no, t(4;14) yes/no, +1q21 no/3 copies/〉3 copies, GEP-based GEP70-score and proliferation index (GPI). GEP-scores were analyzed as continuous variables. Due to low frequency, t(14;16) was excluded. A multivariable Cox regression model was fitted to estimate the individual prognostic index (PI). A non-stringent backward variable selection procedure with significance level for staying in the model of p=0.5 was applied to remove only surely non-informative predictors. Model selection, calibration, and validation were performed with the rms R package [Harrell 2017]. Harrell's c-index was used to assess the discrimination performance, and to compare the proposed prognostic model to the rISS [Kang 2015]. Results Quantitative Integrative Prediction of Survival Probability. The final Cox model was used to build a nomogram for estimating survival probabilities (Fig. 1). Points are attributed to each of the remaining prognostic factors and summed up. Total points translate into estimated 3-/5-year OS probabilities on a continuous scale. Example is given for an actual patient; 170 total points correspond to a 3-/5-year OS probability of 51/26%, and the contribution of each of the risk factors represented by different colors is visualized (Fig. 1). Of course, the continuous scale can also be used to group patients in low/intermediate/high risk; e.g. a sum of 171 and 142 points correspond to 3-/5-year OS probabilities of 〉80/50-80/