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  • 1
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    Stratospheric sulfur and its implications for radiative forcing simulated by the chemistry climate model EMAC (2015)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-02-10
    Description: Multiyear simulations with the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC with a microphysical modal aerosol module at high vertical resolution demonstrate that the sulfur gases COS and SO 2 , the latter from low-latitude and midlatitude volcanic eruptions, predominantly control the formation of stratospheric aerosol. Marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and other SO 2 sources, including strong anthropogenic emissions in China, are found to play a minor role except in the lowermost stratosphere. Estimates of volcanic SO 2 emissions are based on satellite observations using TOMS and OMI for total injected mass and MIPAS on ENVISAT or SAGE for the spatial distribution. The 10 year SO 2 and COS dataset of MIPAS is also used for model evaluation. The calculated radiative forcing of stratospheric background aerosol including sulfate from COS and small contributions by DMS oxidation, and organic aerosol from biomass burning, is about 0.07 W/m 2 . For stratospheric sulfate aerosol from medium and small volcanic eruptions between 2005 and 2011 a global radiative forcing up to 0.2 W/m 2 is calculated, moderating climate warming, while for the major Pinatubo eruption the simulated forcing reaches 5 W/m 2 , leading to temporary climate cooling. The Pinatubo simulation demonstrates the importance of radiative feedback on dynamics, e.g., enhanced tropical upwelling, for large volcanic eruptions.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 2
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    Dynamics of Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Extreme Precipitation Events in Saudi Arabia in Autumn, Winter and Spring (2016)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-03-03
    Description: Extreme precipitation in the arid Middle East can cause flash floods with dramatic societal impacts. This study investigates the synoptic-scale dynamics of three extreme precipitation events that occurred in Saudi Arabia in autumn, winter and spring. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis, sounding, and observational precipitation data, we study precipitation characteristics, the synoptic circulations, moisture transport pathways and forcing mechanisms for upward motion. All three cases involved strong tropical-extratropical interactions whereby midlatitude forcing instigated an incursion of tropical moisture over the Arabian Peninsula that fueled the heavy rainfall. In each case, a midlatitude upper-level trough, associated with anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking, intruded into the subtropics. The phase relationship between this trough and the tropical low-level circulation was consistent with wave amplification through baroclinic growth. Eulerian and Lagrangian analyses reveal moisture transport from nearby and remote tropical regions, leading to above-normal tropospheric moisture content over Saudi Arabia. The autumn case (November 2009) showed a transient midlatitude upper-level trough that interacted with the climatological Red Sea Trough near the surface, being an “Active Red Sea Trough” event. The winter case (January 2005) resembled tropical plume-like characteristics and demonstrated the coupling of a midlatitude cyclone and the equatorial low-pressure zone over Africa, an intensified subtropical jet stream, and pronounced moisture fluxes at middle and upper levels. The spring case (April-May 2013) involved a quasi-stationary cutoff low and persistent advection of low-level moist air masses, partly from the South Indian Ocean through cross-equatorial flow. The forcing of ascent was associated with low-level moisture convergence and decreased static stability (autumn case), dynamical lifting (winter case), strong surface sensible heating (spring case), and orographic lifting (all cases), favouring the buildup and release of potential instability. We discuss the three cases from a seasonal perspective and present a synthesis of their common key synoptic features.
    Print ISSN: 0035-9009
    Electronic ISSN: 1477-870X
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by Wiley
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  • 3
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    The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale (2015)
    Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-09-19
    Description: Assessment of the global burden of disease is based on epidemiological cohort studies that connect premature mortality to a wide range of causes, including the long-term health impacts of ozone and fine particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometres (PM2.5). It has proved difficult to quantify premature mortality related to air pollution, notably in regions where air quality is not monitored, and also because the toxicity of particles from various sources may vary. Here we use a global atmospheric chemistry model to investigate the link between premature mortality and seven emission source categories in urban and rural environments. In accord with the global burden of disease for 2010 (ref. 5), we calculate that outdoor air pollution, mostly by PM2.5, leads to 3.3 (95 per cent confidence interval 1.61-4.81) million premature deaths per year worldwide, predominantly in Asia. We primarily assume that all particles are equally toxic, but also include a sensitivity study that accounts for differential toxicity. We find that emissions from residential energy use such as heating and cooking, prevalent in India and China, have the largest impact on premature mortality globally, being even more dominant if carbonaceous particles are assumed to be most toxic. Whereas in much of the USA and in a few other countries emissions from traffic and power generation are important, in eastern USA, Europe, Russia and East Asia agricultural emissions make the largest relative contribution to PM2.5, with the estimate of overall health impact depending on assumptions regarding particle toxicity. Model projections based on a business-as-usual emission scenario indicate that the contribution of outdoor air pollution to premature mortality could double by 2050.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Lelieveld, J -- Evans, J S -- Fnais, M -- Giannadaki, D -- Pozzer, A -- England -- Nature. 2015 Sep 17;525(7569):367-71. doi: 10.1038/nature15371.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Atmospheric Chemistry Department, 55128 Mainz, Germany. ; The Cyprus Institute, Energy, Environment and Water Research Center, 1645 Nicosia, Cyprus. ; Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts 02215, USA. ; Cyprus International Institute for Environment and Public Health, Cyprus University of Technology, 3041 Limassol, Cyprus. ; King Saud University, College of Science, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26381985" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Adult ; Agriculture/statistics & numerical data ; Air Pollutants/*adverse effects/poisoning ; Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Biomass ; Child, Preschool ; China/epidemiology ; Cooking/statistics & numerical data ; Environmental Exposure/*adverse effects ; Environmental Monitoring ; Europe/epidemiology ; Far East/epidemiology ; Fires/statistics & numerical data ; Heating/statistics & numerical data ; Humans ; India/epidemiology ; Infant ; *Internationality ; Middle Aged ; *Mortality, Premature/trends ; Ozone/adverse effects/analysis/poisoning ; Particulate Matter/*adverse effects/poisoning ; Power Plants/statistics & numerical data ; Rural Health/statistics & numerical data ; Russia/epidemiology ; United States/epidemiology ; Urban Health/statistics & numerical data ; Vehicle Emissions/poisoning
    Print ISSN: 0028-0836
    Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
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  • 4
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    Identification of Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Extreme Precipitation Events in the Middle East based on Potential Vorticity and Moisture Transport (2017)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-12-27
    Description: Extreme precipitation events in the otherwise arid Middle East can cause flooding with dramatic socioeconomic impacts. Most of these events are associated with tropical-extratropical interactions, whereby a stratospheric potential vorticity (PV) intrusion reaches deep into the subtropics and forces an incursion of high poleward vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) into the Middle East. This study presents an object-based identification method for extreme precipitation events based on the combination of these two larger-scale meteorological features. The general motivation for this approach is that precipitation is often poorly simulated in relatively coarse weather and climate models, whereas the synoptic-scale circulation is much better represented. The algorithm is applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data (1979-2015) and detects 90% (83%) of the 99 th (97.5 th ) percentile of extreme precipitation days in the region of interest. Our results show that stratospheric PV intrusions and IVT structures are intimately connected to extreme precipitation intensity and seasonality. The farther south a stratospheric PV intrusion reaches, the larger the IVT magnitude, and the longer the duration of their combined occurrence, the more extreme the precipitation. Our algorithm detects a large fraction of the climatological rainfall amounts (40-70%), heavy precipitation days (50-80%), and the top 10 extreme precipitation days (60-90%) at many sites in southern Israel and the northern and western parts of Saudi Arabia. This identification method provides a new tool for future work to disentangle teleconnections, assess medium-range predictability and improve understanding of climatic changes of extreme precipitation in the Middle East and elsewhere.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 5
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    Influence of local production and vertical transport on the organic aerosol budget over Paris (2017)
    Wiley
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    Publication Date: 2017-06-22
    Description: We performed a case study of the organic aerosol (OA) budget during the MEGAPOLI campaign during summer 2009 in Paris. We combined aerosol mass spectrometer, gas-phase chemistry and atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) data, and applied the MXL/MESSy column model. We find that during daytime, vertical mixing due to ABL growth has opposing effects on secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and primary organic aerosol (POA) concentrations. POA concentrations are mainly governed by dilution due to boundary layer expansion and transport of POA-depleted air from aloft, while SOA concentrations are enhanced by entrainment of SOA-rich air from the residual layer (RL). Further, local emissions and photochemical production control the diurnal cycle of SOA. SOA from intermediate volatility organic compounds (fSOA-iv) constitutes about half of the locally formed SOA mass. Other processes that previously have been shown to influence the urban OA budget, such as aging of semi-volatile and intermediate volatility organic compounds (S/IVOC), dry deposition of S/IVOCs and IVOC emissions, are found to have minor influences on OA. Our model results show that the modern carbon content of the OA is driven by vertical and long-range transport, with a minor contribution from local cooking emissions. SOA from regional sources and resulting from aging and long-lived precursors can lead to high SOA concentrations above the ABL, which can strongly influence ground-based observations through downward transport. Sensitivity analysis shows that modeled SOA concentrations in the ABL are equally sensitive to ABL dynamics as to SOA concentrations transported from the RL.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 6
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    Abrupt recent trend changes in atmospheric nitrogen dioxide over the Middle East (2015)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-08-23
    Description: Nitrogen oxides, released from fossil fuel use and other combustion processes, affect air quality and climate. From the mid-1990s onward, nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) has been monitored from space, and since 2004 with relatively high spatial resolution by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument. Strong upward NO 2 trends have been observed over South and East Asia and the Middle East, in particular over major cities. We show, however, that a combination of air quality control and political factors, including economical crisis and armed conflict, has drastically altered the emission landscape of nitrogen oxides in the Middle East. Large changes, including trend reversals, have occurred since about 2010 that could not have been predicted and therefore are at odds with emission scenarios used in projections of air pollution and climate change in the early 21st century.
    Electronic ISSN: 2375-2548
    Topics: Natural Sciences in General
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 7
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    Effects of fossil fuel and total anthropogenic emission removal on public health and climate (2019)
    National Academy of Sciences
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    Publication Date: 2019-03-25
    Description: Anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols are associated with climate change and human health risks. We used a global model to estimate the climate and public health outcomes attributable to fossil fuel use, indicating the potential benefits of a phaseout. We show that it can avoid an excess mortality rate of 3.61 (2.96–4.21) million per year from outdoor air pollution worldwide. This could be up to 5.55 (4.52–6.52) million per year by additionally controlling nonfossil anthropogenic sources. Globally, fossil-fuel-related emissions account for about 65% of the excess mortality, and 70% of the climate cooling by anthropogenic aerosols. The chemical influence of air pollution on aeolian dust contributes to the aerosol cooling. Because aerosols affect the hydrologic cycle, removing the anthropogenic emissions in the model increases rainfall by 10–70% over densely populated regions in India and 10–30% over northern China, and by 10–40% over Central America, West Africa, and the drought-prone Sahel, thus contributing to water and food security. Since aerosols mask the anthropogenic rise in global temperature, removing fossil-fuel-generated particles liberates 0.51(±0.03) °C and all pollution particles 0.73(±0.03) °C warming, reaching around 2 °C over North America and Northeast Asia. The steep temperature increase from removing aerosols can be moderated to about 0.36(±0.06) °C globally by the simultaneous reduction of tropospheric ozone and methane. We conclude that a rapid phaseout of fossil-fuel-related emissions and major reductions of other anthropogenic sources are needed to save millions of lives, restore aerosol-perturbed rainfall patterns, and limit global warming to 2 °C.
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
    Published by National Academy of Sciences
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  • 8
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    The South Asian monsoon--pollution pump and purifier (2018)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    In: Science
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-07-20
    Description: Air pollution is growing fastest in monsoon-affected South Asia. During the dry winter monsoon, the fumes disperse toward the Indian Ocean, creating a vast pollution haze, but their fate during the wet summer monsoon has been unclear. We performed atmospheric chemistry measurements by aircraft in the Oxidation Mechanism Observations campaign, sampling the summer monsoon outflow in the upper troposphere between the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean. The measurements, supported by model calculations, show that the monsoon sustains a remarkably efficient cleansing mechanism by which contaminants are rapidly oxidized and deposited to Earth’s surface. However, some pollutants are lofted above the monsoon clouds and chemically processed in a reactive reservoir before being redistributed globally, including to the stratosphere.
    Keywords: Geochemistry, Geophysics
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 9
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    Identification of Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Extreme Precipitation Events in the Middle East Based On Potential Vorticity and Moisture Transport (2018)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-01-24
    Print ISSN: 2169-897X
    Electronic ISSN: 2169-8996
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Geophysical Union
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  • 10
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    Aerosol physicochemical effects on CCN activation simulated with the chemistry-climate model EMAC (2017)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-08-01
    Print ISSN: 1352-2310
    Electronic ISSN: 1873-2844
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Elsevier
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