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  • Other Sources  (2)
  • Meteorology and Climatology  (2)
  • 2015-2019  (2)
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  • 1
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    Climate Analogues Suggest Limited Potential for Intensification of Production on Current Croplands Under Climate Change (2016)
    In:  Other Sources
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    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN35999 , Nature Communications (e-ISSN 2041-1723); 7; 12608
    Format: text
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    NASA TECHNICAL REPORTS
  • 2
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    Rising Temperatures Reduce Global Wheat Production (2015)
    In:  Other Sources
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    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32 degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degree C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN31334 , Nature Climate Change (ISSN 1758-678X) (e-ISSN 1758-6798); 5; 143-147
    Format: text
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
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    NASA TECHNICAL REPORTS
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