Publication Date:
2022-05-26
Description:
Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2017. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here under a nonexclusive, irrevocable, paid-up, worldwide license granted to WHOI. It is made available for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London.Series B, Biological Sciences 372 (2017): 2016.0143, doi: 10.1098/rstb.2016.0143.
Description:
Climate changes include concurrent changes in environmental mean, variance and extremes, and it is challenging to understand their respective impact on wild populations, especially when contrasted age-dependent responses to climate occur. We assessed how changes in mean and standard deviation of sea surface temperature (SST), frequency and magnitude of warm SST extreme climatic events (ECE) influenced the stochastic population growth rate log(λs) and age structure of a black-browed albatross population. For changes in SST around historical levels observed since 1982, changes in standard deviation had a larger (threefold) and negative impact on log(λs) compared to changes in mean. By contrast, the mean had a positive impact on log(λs). The historical SST mean was lower than the optimal SST value for which log(λs) was maximized. Thus, a larger environmental mean increased the occurrence of SST close to this optimum that buffered the negative effect of ECE. This ‘climate safety margin’ (i.e. difference between optimal and historical climatic conditions) and the specific shape of the population growth rate response to climate for a species determine how ECE affect the population. For a wider range in SST, both the mean and standard deviation had negative impact on log(λs), with changes in the mean having a greater effect than the standard deviation. Furthermore, around SST historical levels increases in either mean or standard deviation of the SST distribution led to a younger population, with potentially important conservation implications for black-browed albatrosses.
Description:
Work carried out at Canyon des Sourcils Noirs was supported by Institut Paul Emile Victor (IPEV program no.109) and Terres Australes et Antarctiques Françaises. S.J. thanks support from NSF-Antarctic Sciences Division (project no. 1246407), the Grayce B. Kerr Fund and the Penzance Endowed Fund in Support of Assistant Scientists. D.P. PhD was supported by a grant from the French Research Minister CNRS-INEE.
Keywords:
Age
;
Climate change
;
IPCC
;
Matrix population model
;
Sensitivity analysis
;
Survival
Repository Name:
Woods Hole Open Access Server
Type:
Preprint
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