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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2016-01-28
    Description: Sea level rise is perceived as a major threat to the densely populated coast of the Bay of Bengal. Addressing future rise requires understanding the present-day sea level budget. Using a novel method and data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite, we partition altimetric sea level rise (6.1 mm/a over 2002–2014) into mass and steric components. We find that current mass trends in the Bay of Bengal are slightly above global mean, while steric trends appear much larger: 2.2–3.1 mm/a if we disregard a residual required to close the budget, and 4.3–4.6 mm/a if, as an upper bound, we attribute this residual entirely to steric expansion. Our method differs from published approaches in that it explains altimetry and GRACE data in a least squares inversion, while mass anomalies are parameterized through gravitationally self-consistent fingerprints, and steric expansion through EOFs. We validate our estimates by comparing to Argo and modeling for the Indian Ocean, and by comparing total water storage change (TWSC) for the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins to the conventional GRACE approach. We find good agreement for TWSC, and reasonable agreement for steric heights, depending on the ocean region and Argo product. We ascribe differences to weaknesses of the Argo data, but we also find the inversion to be to some extent sensitive with respect to the EOFs. Finally, combining our estimates with CMIP5-simulations, we estimate that Bay of Bengal absolute sea level may rise for additional 37 cm under the RCP4.5 scenario and 40 cm under RCP8.5 until 2050, with respect to 2005. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2017-05-03
    Description: The Tibetan Plateau (TP), the highest and largest plateau in the world, with complex and competing cryospheric-hydrologic-geodynamic processes, is particularly sensitive to anthropogenic warming. The quantitative water mass budget in the TP is poorly known. Here we examine annual changes in lake area, level, and volume during 1970s − 2015. We find that a complex pattern of lake volume change during 1970s − 2015: a slight decrease of –2.78 Gt yr -1 during 1970s − 1995, followed by a rapid increase of 12.53 Gt yr -1 during 1996 − 2010, and then a recent deceleration (1.46 Gt yr -1 ) during 2011 − 2015. We then estimated the recent water mass budget for the Inner TP, 2003 − 2009, including changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS), lake volume, glacier mass, snow water equivalent (SWE), soil moisture, and permafrost. The dominant components of water mass budget, namely changes in lake volume (7.72 ± 0.63 Gt yr -1 ) and groundwater storage (5.01 ± 1.59 Gt yr -1 ), increased at similar rates. We find that increased net precipitation contributes the majority of water supply (74%) for the lake volume increase, followed by glacier mass loss (13%), and ground ice melt due to permafrost degradation (12%). Other term such as SWE (1%) make a relatively small contribution. These results suggest that the hydrologic cycle in the TP has intensified remarkably during recent decades.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2016-12-31
    Description: Asia's high plateaus are sensitive to climate change and have been experiencing rapid warming over the past few decades. We found 99 new lakes and extensive lake expansion on the Tibetan Plateau during the last four decades, 1970–2013, due to increased precipitation and cryospheric contributions to its water balance. This contrasts with disappearing lakes and drastic shrinkage of lake areas on the adjacent Mongolian Plateau: 208 lakes disappeared and 75% of the remaining lakes have shrunk. We detected a statistically significant coincidental timing of lake area changes in both plateaus, associated with the climate regime shift that occurred during 1997/1998. This distinct change in 1997/1998 is thought to be driven by large-scale atmospheric circulation changes in response to climate warming. Our findings reveal that these two adjacent plateaus have been changing in opposite directions in response to climate change. These findings shed light on the complex role of the regional climate and water cycles, and provide useful information for ecological and water resource planning in these fragile landscapes.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2018-01-27
    Description: The contribution of subsidence to relative sea-level rise in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta (GBD) is largely unknown and may considerably enhance exposure of the Bengal basin populations to sea level rise and storm surges. This paper focuses on estimating the present-day subsidence induced by Holocene sediment in the Bengal basin and by oceanic loading due to eustatic sea level rise over the past 18 kyr. Using a viscoelastic Earth model and sediment deposition history based on in-situ measurements, results suggest that massive sediment influx initiated in the early Holocene under a strengthened South Asian monsoon may have contributed significantly to the present-day subsidence of the GBD. We estimate that the Holocene loading generates up to 1.6 mm/yr of the present-day subsidence along the GBD coast, depending on the rheological model of the Earth. This rate is close to the 20 th century global mean sea level rise (1.1-1.7 mm/yr). Thus, past climate change, by way of enhanced sedimentation, is impacting vulnerability of the GBD populations.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2018-01-30
    Description: Despite the importance of mountain snowpack to understanding the water and energy cycles in North America's montane regions, no reliable mountain snow climatology exists for the entire continent. We present a new estimate of mountain snow water equivalent (SWE) for North America from regional climate model simulations. Climatological peak SWE in North America mountains is 1006 km 3 , 2.94 times larger than previous estimates from reanalyses. By combining this mountain SWE value with the best available global product in non-mountain areas, we estimate peak North America SWE of 1684 km 3 , 55% greater than previous estimates. In our simulations, the date of maximum SWE varies widely by mountain range, from early March to mid-April. Though mountains comprise 24% of the continent's land area, we estimate that they contain ~60% of North American SWE. This new estimate is a suitable benchmark for continental- and global-scale water and energy budget studies.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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