ALBERT

Description: Well-known problems trouble coupled general circulation models of the eastern Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins. Model climates are significantly more symmetric about the equator than is observed. Model sea surface temperatures are biased warm south and southeast of the equator, and the atmosphere is too rainy within a band south of the equator. Near-coastal eastern equatorial SSTs are too warm, producing a zonal SST gradient in the Atlantic opposite in sign to that observed. The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CLIVAR) Eastern Tropical Ocean Synthesis Working Group (WG) has pursued an updated assessment of coupled model SST biases, focusing on the surface energy balance components, on regional error sources from clouds, deep convection, winds, and ocean eddies; on the sensitivity to model resolution; and on remote impacts. Motivated by the assessment, the WG makes the following recommendations: 1) encourage identification of the specific parameterizations contributing to the biases in individual models, as these can be model dependent; 2) restrict multimodel intercomparisons to specific processes; 3) encourage development of high-resolution coupled models with a concurrent emphasis on parameterization development of finer-scale ocean and atmosphere features, including low clouds; 4) encourage further availability of all surface flux components from buoys, for longer continuous time periods, in persistently cloudy regions; and 5) focus on the eastern basin coastal oceanic upwelling regions, where further opportunities for observational–modeling synergism exist.

Description: Gas hydrate dissociation is often considered as a precursor or triggering factor for submarine slope failures occurring in relatively deep waters where the bulk of the gas hydrate is found in fine-grained sediments. However, there are actually relatively few studies that focus on the effect of gas hydrate dissociation on the behavior of clays, and very few on what physically happens to clay during and after the dissociation process and how gas hydrate dissociation affects the geotechnical properties of clays. In this paper, we illustrate the effects of hydrate dissociation in clays from laboratory strength tests (direct simple shear) combined with visualization including very-high-resolution 3D imaging (computed tomography), using R11 as the hydrate forming fluid in both laponite and Onsøy clay. The test results reveal that the hydrate dissociation creates bubbles in the surrounding clay matrix and around pipe/well models. In addition, we use CO2-saturated water as the pore fluid in soft clay, and test results show that cracks may develop, allowing gas migration to take place after reducing back pressure in an oedometer cell. Direct simple shear tests show that the undrained shear strength decreases by up to ∼15% due to this process. The test results were then implemented in a 2D finite element model to assess the influence of hydrate dissociation on submarine slope stability. We chose a slope segment west of Svalvard—an area where methane gas bubbles escape from the seabed. The gas bubbling in this area is likely due to climate-controlled hydrate-dissociation (warming of bottom water masses). In the finite-element model, we include the change of methane hydrate stability zone (MHSZ) with time as well as the hydrate-dissociation-induced failure zone, which may be a potential leakage pathway. The numerical study indicates that the hydrate dissociation caused by bottom water warming is unlikely to be the main cause generating a leakage pathway or failure plane. However, the hydrate dissociation causing the reduction in shear strength facilitates a potentially unstable condition. The results imply that the hydrate dissociation may contribute to slope failure as a secondary driver, but are unlikely the main driving force. The aim of this study was to improve our understanding of the physical processes of gas expansion, migration and effect of hydrate dissociation through visualization and a finite element model. In addition, this study discussed methods to detect gas hydrate through a case study, and it was found possible to predict average gas hydrate saturation at sites where the sulfate-methane transition depth is known.

Description: Gas hydrate dissociation is often considered as a precursor or triggering factor for submarine slope failures occurring in relatively deep waters where the bulk of the gas hydrate is found in fine-grained sediments. However, there are actually relatively few studies that focus on the effect of gas hydrate dissociation on the behavior of clays, and very few on what physically happens to clay during and after the dissociation process and how gas hydrate dissociation affects the geotechnical properties of clays. In this paper, we illustrate the effects of hydrate dissociation in clays from laboratory strength tests (direct simple shear) combined with visualization including very-high-resolution 3D imaging (computed tomography), using R11 as the hydrate forming fluid in both laponite and Onsøy clay. The test results reveal that the hydrate dissociation creates bubbles in the surrounding clay matrix and around pipe/well models. In addition, we use CO2- saturated water as the pore fluid in soft clay, and test results show that cracks may develop, allowing gas migration to take place after reducing back pressure in an oedometer cell. Direct simple shear tests show that the undrained shear strength decreases by up to ∼15% due to this process. The test results were then implemented in a 2D finite element model to assess the influence of hydrate dissociation on submarine slope stability. We chose a slope segment west of Svalvard—an area where methane gas bubbles escape from the seabed. The gas bubbling in this area is likely due to climate-controlled hydrate-dissociation (warming of bottom water masses). In the finite-element model, we include the change of methane hydrate stability zone (MHSZ) with time as well as the hydrate-dissociation-induced failure zone, which may be a potential leakage pathway. The numerical study indicates that the hydrate dissociation caused by bottom water warming is unlikely to be the main cause generating a leakage pathway or failure plane. However, the hydrate dissociation causing the reduction in shear strength facilitates a potentially unstable condition. The results imply that the hydrate dissociation may contribute to slope failure as a secondary driver, but are unlikely the main driving force. The aim of this study was to improve our understanding of the physical processes of gas expansion, migration and effect of hydrate dissociation through visualization and a finite element model. In addition, this study discussed methods to detect gas hydrate through a case study, and it was found possible to predict average gas hydrate saturation at sites where the sulfate-methane transition depth is known.

Description: A new climate model has been developed that employs a multi-resolution dynamical core for the sea ice-ocean component. In principle, the multi-resolution approach allows one to use enhanced horizontal resolution in dynamically active regions while keeping a coarse-resolution setup otherwise. The coupled model consists of the atmospheric model ECHAM6 and the finite element sea ice-ocean model (FESOM). In this study only moderate refinement of the unstructured ocean grid is applied and the resolution varies from about 25 km in the northern North Atlantic and in the tropics to about 150 km in parts of the open ocean; the results serve as a benchmark upon which future versions that exploit the potential of variable resolution can be built. Details of the formulation of the model are given and its performance in simulating observed aspects of the mean climate is described. Overall, it is found that ECHAM6–FESOM realistically simulates many aspects of the observed climate. More specifically it is found that ECHAM6–FESOM performs at least as well as some of the most sophisticated climate models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. ECHAM6–FESOM shares substantial shortcomings with other climate models when it comes to simulating the North Atlantic circulation.