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  • Other Sources  (5)
  • AGU (American Geophysical Union)  (4)
  • Royal Meteorological Society  (1)
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  • Other Sources  (5)
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  • 1
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    Tropical forcing of the Summer East Atlantic pattern (2017)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 44 (21). 11,166-11,173.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-06-29
    Description: The Summer East Atlantic (SEA) mode is the second dominant mode of summer low-frequency variability in the Euro-Atlantic region. Using reanalysis data, we show that SEA-related circulation anomalies significantly influence temperatures and precipitation over Europe. We present evidence that part of the interannual SEA variability is forced by diabatic heating anomalies of opposing signs in the tropical Pacific and Caribbean that induce an extratropical Rossby wave train. This precipitation dipole is related to SST anomalies characteristic of the developing ENSO phases. Seasonal hindcast experiments forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SST) exhibit skill at capturing the interannual SEA variability corroborating the proposed mechanism and highlighting the possibility for improved prediction of boreal summer variability. Our results indicate that tropical forcing of the SEA likely played a role in the dynamics of the 2015 European heat wave.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 2
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    Traveling planetary-scale Rossby waves in the winter stratosphere: The role of tropospheric baroclinic instability (2012)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union)
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (20). L20817.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-10-24
    Description: The Southern Hemisphere winter stratosphere exhibits prominent traveling planetary-scale Rossby waves, which generally are not able to induce Stratospheric Sudden Warmings. A series of runs of a simplified general circulation model is presented, aimed at better understanding the generation of these waves. While the generation of planetary-scale traveling waves through the interaction of synoptic-scale waves is observed in a control run, when the model is truncated to permit only waves with zonal wave number 1 or 2, the long waves are found to increase in strength, leading to a considerably more active stratosphere including Sudden Warmings comparable in strength to Northern Hemisphere winter. This finding suggests that the role of tropospheric synoptic eddies is two-fold: while generating a weak planetary-scale wave flux into the stratosphere, their main effect is to suppress baroclinic instability of planetary-scale waves by stabilizing the tropospheric mean state.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 3
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    The role of synoptic eddies in the tropospheric response to stratospheric variability (2013)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (18). pp. 4933-4937.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-10-24
    Description: The tropospheric response to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) is analyzed in an idealized model setup regarding the respective roles of planetary-scale and synoptic-scale waves. The control model run includes a full interactive wave spectrum, while a second run includes interactive planetary-scale waves but only the time-mean synoptic-scale wave forcing from the control run. In both runs, the tropospheric response is characterized by the negative phase of the respective tropospheric annular mode. But given their different latitudinal structure, the control run shows the expected response, i.e., an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet, whereas the response in the absence of interactive synoptic eddies is characterized by a poleward jet shift. This opposite jet shift is associated with a different planetary wave variability that couples with the zonal flow between the stratosphere and the surface. These results indicate that the synoptic eddy feedback is necessary for the observed tropospheric response to SSWs.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 4
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    The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: Do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter? (2016)
    Royal Meteorological Society
    In:  Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (696). pp. 1413-1427.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-02-01
    Description: Using an international, multi-model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare the seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve the stratosphere and its dynamics (“high-top”) and models that do not (“low-top”). We evaluate hindcasts that are initialized in November, and examine the model biases in the stratosphere and how they relate to boreal wintertime (Dec-Mar) seasonal forecast skill. We are unable to detect more skill in the high-top ensemble-mean than the low-top ensemble-mean in forecasting the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, but model performance varies widely. Increasing the ensemble size clearly increases the skill for a given model. We then examine two major processes involving stratosphere-troposphere interactions (the El Niño-Southern Oscillation/ENSO and the Quasi-biennial Oscillation/QBO) and how they relate to predictive skill on intra-seasonal to seasonal timescales, particularly over the North Atlantic and Eurasia regions. High-top models tend to have a more realistic stratospheric response to El Niño and the QBO compared to low-top models. Enhanced conditional wintertime skill over high-latitudes and the North Atlantic region during winters with El Niño conditions suggests a possible role for a stratospheric pathway.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 5
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    The potential role of stratospheric ozone in the stratosphere-ionosphere coupling during stratospheric warmings (2012)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union)
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (8). L08101.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-10-24
    Description: The recent discovery of large ionospheric disturbances associated with sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) has challenged the current understanding of mechanisms coupling the stratosphere and ionosphere. Non-linear interaction of planetary waves and tides has been invoked as a primary mechanism for such coupling. Here we show that planetary waves may play a more complex role than previously thought. Planetary wave forcing induces a global circulation that leads to the build-up of ozone density in the tropics at 30–50 km altitude, the primary region responsible for the generation of the migrating semidiurnal tide. The increase in the ozone density reaches 25% and lasts for ∼35 days following the SSW, long after the collapse of the planetary waves. Ozone enhancements are not only associated with SSW but are also observed after other amplifications in planetary waves. In addition, the longitudinal distribution of the ozone becomes strongly asymmetric, potentially leading to the generation of non-migrating semidiurnal tides. We report a persistent increase in the variability of ionospheric total electron content that coincides with the increase in stratospheric ozone and we suggest that the ozone fluctuations affect the ionosphere through the modified tidal forcing.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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