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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 118 (2015): 122-135, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2015.02.008.
    Description: A coupled biophysical model is used to examine the impact of changes in sea ice and snow cover and nutrient availability on the formation of massive under-ice phytoplankton blooms (MUPBs) in the Chukchi Sea of the Arctic Ocean over the period 1988–2013. The model is able to reproduce the basic features of the ICESCAPE (Impacts of Climate on EcoSystems and Chemistry of the Arctic Pacific Environment) observed MUPB during July 2011. The simulated MUPBs occur every year during 1988–2013, mainly in between mid-June and mid-July. While the simulated under-ice blooms of moderate magnitude are widespread in the Chukchi Sea, MUPBs are less so. On average, the area fraction of MUPBs in the ice-covered areas of the Chukchi Sea during June and July is about 8%, which has been increasing at a rate of 2% yr–1 over 1988–2013. The simulated increase in the area fraction as well as primary productivity and chlorophyll a biomass is linked to an increase in light availability, in response to a decrease in sea ice and snow cover, and an increase in nutrient availability in the upper 100 m of the ocean, in conjunction with an intensification of ocean circulation. Simulated MUPBs are temporally sporadic and spatially patchy because of strong spatiotemporal variations of light and nutrient availability. However, as observed during ICESCAPE, there is a high likelihood that MUPBs may form at the shelf break, where the model simulates enhanced nutrient concentration that is seldom depleted between mid-June and mid-July because of generally robust shelf-break upwelling and other dynamic ocean processes. The occurrence of MUPBs at the shelf break is more frequent in the past decade than in the earlier period because of elevated light availability there. It may be even more frequent in the future if the sea ice and snow cover continues to decline such that light is more available at the shelf break to further boost the formation of MUPBs there.
    Description: This work is supported by the NASA Cryosphere Program and Climate and Biological Response Program and the NSF Office of Polar Programs (Grant Nos. NNX12AB31G; NNX11AO91G; ARC-0901987).
    Keywords: Arctic Ocean ; Chukchi Sea ; Phytoplankton ; Blooms ; Sea ice ; Snow depth ; Light availability ; Nutrient availability
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2017. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here under a nonexclusive, irrevocable, paid-up, worldwide license granted to WHOI. It is made available for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Change Biology 24 (2018): e159-e170, doi:10.1111/gcb.13890.
    Description: Dramatic changes have occurred in the Arctic Ocean over the past few decades, especially in terms of sea ice loss and ocean warming. Those environmental changes may modify the planktonic ecosystem with changes from lower to upper trophic levels. This study aimed to understand how the biogeographic distribution of a crucial endemic copepod species, Calanus glacialis, may respond to both abiotic (ocean temperature) and biotic (phytoplankton prey) drivers. A copepod individual-based model coupled to an ice-ocean-biogeochemical model was utilized to simulate temperature- and food-dependent life cycle development of C. glacialis annually from 1980 to 2014. Over the 35-year study period, the northern boundaries of modeled diapausing C. glacialis expanded poleward and the annual success rates of C. glacialis individuals attaining diapause in a circumpolar transition zone increased substantially. Those patterns could be explained by a lengthening growth season (during which time food is ample) and shortening critical development time (the period from the first feeding stage N3 to the diapausing stage C4). The biogeographic changes were further linked to large scale oceanic processes, particularly diminishing sea ice cover, upper ocean warming, and increasing and prolonging food availability, which could have potential consequences to the entire Arctic shelf/slope marine ecosystems.
    Description: This study was funded by National Science Foundation Arctic System Science (ARCSS) Program (PLR-1417677, PLR-1417339, and PLR-1416920).
    Keywords: Arctic Ocean ; Marine ecosystem ; Climate change ; Copepod ; Biogeography ; Ocean warming ; Poleward range shift ; Individual-based model
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 123(11), (2018): 7983-8003. doi:10.1029/2018JC014298.
    Description: A melt pond (MP) distribution equation has been developed and incorporated into the Marginal Ice‐Zone Modeling and Assimilation System to simulate Arctic MPs and sea ice over 1979–2016. The equation differs from previous MP models and yet benefits from previous studies for MP parameterizations as well as a range of observations for model calibration. Model results show higher magnitude of MP volume per unit ice area and area fraction in most of the Canada Basin and the East Siberian Sea and lower magnitude in the central Arctic. This is consistent with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer observations, evaluated with Measurements of Earth Data for Environmental Analysis (MEDEA) data, and closely related to top ice melt per unit ice area. The model simulates a decrease in the total Arctic sea ice volume and area, owing to a strong increase in bottom and lateral ice melt. The sea ice decline leads to a strong decrease in the total MP volume and area. However, the Arctic‐averaged MP volume per unit ice area and area fraction show weak, statistically insignificant downward trends, which is linked to the fact that MP water drainage per unit ice area is increasing. It is also linked to the fact that MP volume and area decrease relatively faster than ice area. This suggests that overall the actual MP conditions on ice have changed little in the past decades as the ice cover is retreating in response to Arctic warming, thus consistent with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer observations that show no clear trend in MP area fraction over 2000–2011.
    Description: We gratefully acknowledge the support of the NASA Cryosphere Program (grants NNX15AG68G, NNX17AD27G, and NNX14AH61G), the Office of Naval Research (N00014‐12‐1‐0112), the NSF Office of Polar Programs (PLR‐1416920, PLR‐1603259, PLR‐1602521, and ARC‐1203425), and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS, 2014‐ST‐061‐ML‐0002). The DHS grant is coordinated through the Arctic Domain Awareness Center (ADAC), a DHS Center of Excellence, which conducts maritime research and development for the Arctic region. The views and conclusions in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the DHS. MODIS‐derived MP area data are available at https://icdc.cen.uni‐hamburg.de/1/daten/cryosphere/arctic‐meltponds.html. MP area fraction statistics derived from MEDEA images are available from http://psc.apl.uw.edu/melt‐pond‐data/. Sea ice thickness and snow observations are available at http://psc.apl.washington.edu/sea_ice_cdr. CFS forcing data used to drive MIZMAS are available at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data‐access/model‐data/model‐datasets/climate‐forecast‐system‐version2‐cfsv2.
    Description: 2019-04-18
    Keywords: Arctic Ocean ; sea ice ; melt ponds ; numerical modeling ; climate variability
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 121 (2016): 6137-6158, doi:10.1002/2016JC011784.
    Description: Early ice retreat and ocean warming are changing various facets of the Arctic marine ecosystem, including the biogeographic distribution of marine organisms. Here an endemic copepod species, Calanus glacialis, was used as a model organism, to understand how and why Arctic marine environmental changes may induce biogeographic boundary shifts. A copepod individual-based model was coupled to an ice-ocean-ecosystem model to simulate temperature- and food-dependent copepod life history development. Numerical experiments were conducted for two contrasting years: a relatively cold and normal sea ice year (2001) and a well-known warm year with early ice retreat (2007). Model results agreed with commonly known biogeographic distributions of C. glacialis, which is a shelf/slope species and cannot colonize the vast majority of the central Arctic basins. Individuals along the northern boundaries of this species' distribution were most susceptible to reproduction timing and early food availability (released sea ice algae). In the Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian, and Laptev Seas where severe ocean warming and loss of sea ice occurred in summer 2007, relatively early ice retreat, elevated ocean temperature (about 1–2°C higher than 2001), increased phytoplankton food, and prolonged growth season created favorable conditions for C. glacialis development and caused a remarkable poleward expansion of its distribution. From a pan-Arctic perspective, despite the great heterogeneity in the temperature and food regimes, common biogeographic zones were identified from model simulations, thus allowing a better characterization of habitats and prediction of potential future biogeographic boundary shifts.
    Description: National Science Foundation Polar Programs Grant Number: (PLR-1417677, PLR-1417339, and PLR-1416920)
    Description: 2017-02-20
    Keywords: Arctic Ocean ; Marine ecosystem ; Climate change ; Biogeography ; Individual-based model ; C. glacialis
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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