ALBERT

Description: In this paper, we apply multidimensional scaling (MDS) and parametric similarity indices (PSI) in the analysis of complex systems (CS). Each CS is viewed as a dynamical system, exhibiting an output time-series to be interpreted as a manifestation of its behavior. We start by adopting a sliding window to sample the original data into several consecutive time periods. Second, we define a given PSI for tracking pieces of data. We then compare the windows for different values of the parameter, and we generate the corresponding MDS maps of ‘points’. Third, we use Procrustes analysis to linearly transform the MDS charts for maximum superposition and to build a globalMDS map of “shapes”. This final plot captures the time evolution of the phenomena and is sensitive to the PSI adopted. The generalized correlation, theMinkowski distance and four entropy-based indices are tested. The proposed approach is applied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock market index and the Europe Brent Spot Price FOB time-series.

Description: The Moore’s law (ML) is one of many empirical expressions that is used to characterize natural and artificial phenomena. The ML addresses technological progress and is expected to predict future trends. Yet, the “art” of predicting is often confused with the accurate fitting of trendlines to past events. Presently, data-series of multiple sources are available for scientific and computational processing. The data can be described by means of mathematical expressions that, in some cases, follow simple expressions and empirical laws. However, the extrapolation toward the future is considered with skepticism by the scientific community, particularly in the case of phenomena involving complex behavior. This paper addresses these issues in the light of entropy and pseudo-state space. The statistical and dynamical techniques lead to a more assertive perspective on the adoption of a given candidate law.

Description: The prevention and control of dengue are great public health challenges for many countries, particularly since 2015, as other arboviruses have been observed to interact significantly with dengue virus. Different approaches and methodologies have been proposed and discussed by the research community. An important tool widely used is modeling and simulation, which help us to understand epidemic dynamics and create scenarios to support planning and decision making processes. With this aim, we proposed and developed DengueME, a collaborative open source platform to simulate dengue disease and its vector’s dynamics. It supports compartmental and individual-based models, implemented over a GIS database, that represent Aedes aegypti population dynamics, human demography, human mobility, urban landscape and dengue transmission mediated by human and mosquito encounters. A user-friendly graphical interface was developed to facilitate model configuration and data input, and a library of models was developed to support teaching-learning activities. DengueME was applied in study cases and evaluated by specialists. Other improvements will be made in future work, to enhance its extensibility and usability.

Description: Non-motorized transportation modes, especially cycling and walking, offer numerous benefits, including improvements in the livability of cities, healthy physical activity, efficient urban transportation systems, less traffic congestion, less noise pollution, clean air, less impact on climate change and decreases in the incidence of diseases related to vehicular emissions. Considering the substantial number of short-distance trips, the time consumed in traffic jams, the higher costs for parking vehicles and restrictions in central business districts, many commuters have found that non-motorized modes of transportation serve as viable and economical transport alternatives. Thus, local governments should encourage and stimulate non-motorized modes of transportation. In return, governments must provide safe conditions for these forms of transportation, and motorized vehicle users must respect and coexist with pedestrians and cyclists, which are the most vulnerable users of the transportation system. Although current trends in sustainable transport aim to encourage and stimulate non-motorized modes of transportation that are socially more efficient than motorized transportation, few to no safety policies have been implemented regarding vulnerable road users (VRU), mainly in large urban centers. Due to the spatial nature of the data used in transport-related studies, geospatial technologies provide a powerful analytical method for studying VRU safety frameworks through the use of spatial analysis. In this article, spatial analysis is used to determine the locations of regions that are characterized by a concentration of traffic accidents (black zones) involving VRU (injuries and casualties) in São Paulo, Brazil (developing country), and Rome, Italy (developed country). The black zones are investigated to obtain spatial patterns that can cause multiple accidents. A method based on kernel density estimation (KDE) is used to compare the two cities and show economic, social, cultural, demographic and geographic differences and/or similarities and how these factors are linked to the locations of VRU traffic accidents. Multivariate regression analyses (ordinary least squares (OLS) models and spatial regression models) are performed to investigate spatial correlations, to understand the dynamics of VRU road accidents in São Paulo and Rome and to detect factors (variables) that contribute to the occurrences of these events, such as the presence of trip generator hubs (TGH), the number of generated urban trips and demographic data. The adopted methodology presents satisfactory results for identifying and delimiting black spots and establishing a link between VRU traffic accident rates and TGH (hospitals, universities and retail shopping centers) and demographic and transport-related data.

Description: Objective: To describe the primary care actions performed by oral health teams (OHTs) that participated in a large national survey led by the Ministry of Health in 2012. Methods: A total of 12,403 dentists from OHTs completed a set of survey questions (response rate = 85.01%) on the organization of care, basic dental procedures and oral health surveillance actions of OHTs. Descriptive and hierarchical cluster analyses were developed. Results: The majority of OHTs (85.2%) reported that they performed “patient welcoming”. The delivery of services was based on a patient’s identified disease risk (83.1%), and continuity of care was ensured by 85.9% of OHTs. Individual preventive, restorative and surgical procedures were performed by the majority of the teams; however, screening for oral cancer and construction of dental prostheses/dentures occurred less frequently. Cluster 1 was composed of OHTs with the lowest proportion of oral healthcare actions related to oral cancer and dental prostheses/dentures, and the Southeastern and Southern regions had higher proportions of OHTs from cluster 2. Conclusions: OHTs adhere to some of the principles of primary care organizations; however, the teams perform fewer actions related to oral cancer treatment and rehabilitation with complete dentures. The geographical distribution of the clusters was unequal in Brazil.

Description: Sustainability, Vol. 10, Pages 2604: Analysis of Guidelines and Identification of Characteristics Influencing the Deconstruction Potential of Buildings Sustainability doi: 10.3390/su10082604 Authors: Roberta Carvalho Machado Henor Artur de Souza Gustavo de Souza Veríssimo Growing concerns regarding environmental preservation and the fact that the construction industry is one of the sectors with the highest rates of resource consumption and waste generation, have encouraged the adoption of deconstruction as an alternative to the demolition of buildings at the end of their lifecycle. However, the choice of strategies to enable deconstruction requires an in-depth knowledge of how the building’s characteristics, combined with the procedures adopted in the deconstruction process, will affect the reutilization of materials and components. In this paper, characteristics relating to design for deconstruction (DfD) are identified and the influence of each characteristic on the viability of a deconstruction is analysed. A literature review is conducted to assess the guideline of DfD and to identify relevant characteristics. These characteristics are then divided into the following categories: direct influence enabling deconstruction; influence on the ease of the process; and, influence on prolonging a building’s lifecycle. A number of questions are suggested for analysing each characteristic, and these can be employed in the development of a methodology for evaluating a building’s deconstruction potential. The identification of characteristics involved in the deconstruction guidelines may assist in the optimization of projects and the planning of deconstruction processes.

Description: Entropy, Vol. 20, Pages 437: Complexity Analysis of Global Temperature Time Series Entropy doi: 10.3390/e20060437 Authors: António M. Lopes J. A. Tenreiro Machado Climate has complex dynamics due to the plethora of phenomena underlying its evolution. These characteristics pose challenges to conducting solid quantitative analysis and reaching assertive conclusions. In this paper, the global temperature time series (TTS) is viewed as a manifestation of the climate evolution, and its complexity is calculated by means of four different indices, namely the Lempel–Ziv complexity, sample entropy, signal harmonics power ratio, and fractal dimension. In the first phase, the monthly mean TTS is pre-processed by means of empirical mode decomposition, and the TTS trend is calculated. In the second phase, the complexity of the detrended signals is estimated. The four indices capture distinct features of the TTS dynamics in a 4-dim space. Hierarchical clustering is adopted for dimensional reduction and visualization in the 2-dim space. The results show that TTS complexity exhibits space-time variability, suggesting the presence of distinct climate forcing processes in both dimensions. Numerical examples with real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.

Description: Sustainability, Vol. 10, Pages 2811: Modeling the Social Factors That Determine Sustainable Consumption Behavior in the Community of Madrid Sustainability doi: 10.3390/su10082811 Authors: Edna C. Figueroa-García Juan J. García-Machado Diana C. Pérez-Bustamante Yábar This paper defines the social factors that determine sustainable behavior and identifies the elements that promote such behavior. These factors are external from the individual and causal regarding sustainable behavior, an area that receives little attention in literature. It uses a theoretical model, based on existing research, which is tested through a questionnaire with 26 indicators adapted to the Spanish context. In an initial analysis, this model proposed, as determining social factors in the CCS, aspects such as government action, social pressure, influence of the social environment, demographic variables (age, gender, education level), education and information, and market conditions. Finally, it was concluded that 43.4% of the variance of the endogenous latent variable (SCC) can be explained only by three exogenous latent constructions: environmental influences (in particular the influence of family and friends, as well as that generated by cultural factors such as traditions), education and information (specifically related to information on sustainability and the effects of personal consumption on the environment), and market conditions (referring to the positive perception of sustainable products by consumers, including their willingness to pay higher prices than those of conventional products). The rest of the exogenous variables did not have a significant relationship with the endogenous variable. These results are very useful for government institutions, companies that operate in the sector and pro-environmental and pro-social groups, that knowing what motivates people to adopt this form of behavior can design relevant strategies to get positive answers about the environment, the economy and the society.

Description: IJERPH, Vol. 15, Pages 1923: Exploring Brazilian Immigrant Mothers’ Beliefs, Attitudes, and Practices Related to Their Preschool-Age Children’s Sleep and Bedtime Routines: A Qualitative Study Conducted in the United States International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health doi: 10.3390/ijerph15091923 Authors: Ana Cristina Lindsay Carlos André Moura Arruda Márcia M. Tavares Machado Gabriela P. De Andrade Mary L. Greaney In the United States (US), racial/ethnic minority children, low-income children, and children of immigrant families are at increased risk of childhood obesity. Mounting evidence documents that sleep duration and sleep quality are important modifiable factors associated with increased risk of obesity among preschool-aged children. The number of Brazilian immigrants in the US is increasing, yet no existing research, to our knowledge, has examined factors affecting sleep and bedtime routines of children of Brazilian immigrant families. Therefore, the purpose of this qualitative study was to explore Brazilian immigrant mothers’ beliefs, attitudes, and practices related to sleep and bedtime routines among preschool-aged children. Seven focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted with 37 Brazilian immigrant mothers of preschool-age children living in the US. The audio-recordings of the FGDs were transcribed verbatim in Portuguese without identifiers and analyzed using thematic analyses. Mothers also completed a brief questionnaire assessing socio-demographic and acculturation. Analyses revealed that most mothers were aware of the importance of sleep and sleep duration for their children’s healthy growth and development. Mothers also spoke of children needing consistent bedtime routines. Nevertheless, many mothers reported inconsistent and suboptimal bedtime routines (e.g., lack of predictable and orderly bedtime activities such as bath, reading, etc. and use of electronics in bed). These suboptimal routines appeared to be influenced by day-to-day social contextual and environmental factors that are part of Brazilian immigrant families’ lives such as parents’ work schedule, living with extended family, living in multi-family housing, neighborhood noise, etc. Analyses identified several modifiable parenting practices related to young children’s sleep and bedtime routines (e.g., irregular bedtime, late bedtime, inconsistent bedtime routines, use of electronics in bed, etc.) that can be addressed in parenting- and family-based obesity prevention interventions. Interventions should consider the social context of the home/family (e.g., parents’ work schedules) and the environment (e.g., multi-family housing; neighborhood noise, etc.) faced by Brazilian immigrant families when developing health promotion messages and parenting interventions tailored to this ethnic group.

Description: IJERPH, Vol. 15, Pages 2011: Diagnosis on Transport Risk Based on a Combined Assessment of Road Accidents and Watershed Vulnerability to Spills of Hazardous Substances International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health doi: 10.3390/ijerph15092011 Authors: Emerson Ribeiro Machado Renato Farias do Valle Junior Teresa Cristina Tarlé Pissarra Hygor Evangelista Siqueira Luís Filipe Sanches Fernandes Fernando António Leal Pacheco Roads play an important role in the economic development of cities and regions, but the transport of cargo along highways may represent a serious environmental problem because a large portion of transported goods is composed of dangerous products. In this context, the development and validation of risk management tools becomes extremely important to support the decision-making of people and agencies responsible for the management of road enterprises. In the present study, a method for determination of environmental vulnerability to road spills of hazardous substances is coupled with accident occurrence data in a highway, with the purpose to achieve a diagnosis on soil and water contamination risk and propose prevention measures and emergency alerts. The data on accident occurrences involving hazardous and potentially harmful products refer to the highway BR 050, namely the segment between the Brazilian municipalities of Uberaba and Uberlândia. The results show that many accidents occurred where vulnerability is high, especially in the southern sector of the segment, justifying the implementation of prevention and alert systems. The coupling of vulnerability and road accident data in a geographic information system proved efficient in the preparation of quick risk management maps, which are essential for alert systems and immediate environmental protection. Overall, the present study contributes with an example on how the management of risk can be conducted in practice when the transport of dangerous substances along roads is the focus problem.