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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.04. Thermodynamics  (1)
  • Bayesian network  (1)
  • Elsevier  (2)
  • American Chemical Society
  • 2015-2019  (2)
  • 1980-1984
  • 1945-1949
  • 1940-1944
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  • 2015-2019  (2)
  • 1980-1984
  • 1945-1949
  • 1940-1944
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2014. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ecological Modelling 276 (2014): 38–50, doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.01.005.
    Description: Sea-level rise and human development pose significant threats to shorebirds, particularly for species that utilize barrier island habitat. The piping plover (Charadrius melodus) is a federally-listed shorebird that nests on barrier islands and rapidly responds to changes in its physical environment, making it an excellent species with which to model how shorebird species may respond to habitat change related to sea-level rise and human development. The uncertainty and complexity in predicting sea-level rise, the responses of barrier island habitats to sea-level rise, and the responses of species to sea-level rise and human development necessitate a modeling approach that can link species to the physical habitat features that will be altered by changes in sea level and human development. We used a Bayesian network framework to develop a model that links piping plover nest presence to the physical features of their nesting habitat on a barrier island that is impacted by sea-level rise and human development, using three years of data (1999, 2002, and 2008) from Assateague Island National Seashore in Maryland. Our model performance results showed that we were able to successfully predict nest presence given a wide range of physical conditions within the model's dataset. We found that model predictions were more successful when the ranges of physical conditions included in model development were varied rather than when those physical conditions were narrow. We also found that all model predictions had fewer false negatives (nests predicted to be absent when they were actually present in the dataset) than false positives (nests predicted to be present when they were actually absent in the dataset), indicating that our model correctly predicted nest presence better than nest absence. These results indicated that our approach of using a Bayesian network to link specific physical features to nest presence will be useful for modeling impacts of sea-level rise or human-related habitat change on barrier islands. We recommend that potential users of this method utilize multiple years of data that represent a wide range of physical conditions in model development, because the model performed less well when constructed using a narrow range of physical conditions. Further, given that there will always be some uncertainty in predictions of future physical habitat conditions related to sea-level rise and/or human development, predictive models will perform best when developed using multiple, varied years of data input.
    Description: Funding for the research presented in this paper was provided by the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative and the U.S. Geological Survey.
    Keywords: Bayesian network ; Development ; Habitat ; Piping plover ; Sea-level rise ; Shorebird
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Detailed surveys of diffuse CO2 flux, soil temperature, thermal gradients, and sampling of high-T fumaroles were carried out in the Favare area and Lake Specchio di Venere on Pantelleria Island. Spatial patterns of diffuse CO2 emissions in the Favare area reflect structural discontinuities (faults, fractures or cracks in the soil) associated with the volcano-tectonic structures of the young Monastero Caldera (NNE–SSW to NE–SW trending). The estimated diffuse CO2 output from two adjacent sites in the Favare area (~ 93,000 m2) is 7.8 t d− 1 (equivalent to 2.62 kt a− 1), whereas that from the west shore of the lake (450 m2) is 0.041 t d− 1 (or 0.015 kt a− 1). The extrapolation of diffuse CO2 fluxes across the entire altered area of Favare suggests that CO2 emissions are ~ 19.3 t d− 1. The diffuse CO2 flux correlates with shallow soil temperatures, indicating a similar source for both the heat and volatiles from the underlying geothermal reservoir. Gas equilibria applied to fumarolic effluents define P–T conditions for this reservoir at 2–6 bar and 120–160 °C, in good agreement with measurements from exploratory wells in these areas (e.g., 135 °C at a depth of 290 m). Using the CO2 flux as a tracer for steam output, and consequently for heat flow, the calculated thermal energy for the shallow reservoir is 10–12 MW; this represents the minimum geothermal potential of the reservoir on Pantelleria island.
    Description: Published
    Description: 22-33
    Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: CO2 soil degassing; ; Geothermal potential; ; Geothermal aquifers; ; Pantelleria Island ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.04. Thermodynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
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