ALBERT

Description: Two sprite-producing thunderstorms were observed on 8 and 25 June 2012 in northeastern Colorado by a combination of low-light cameras, a lightning mapping array, polarimetric and Doppler radars, the National Lightning Detection Network, and charge moment change measurements. The 8 June event evolved from a tornadic hailstorm to a larger multicellular system that produced 21 observed positive sprites in 2 h. The majority of sprites occurred during a lull in convective strength, as measured by total flash rate, flash energy, and radar echo volume. Mean flash area spiked multiple times during this period; however, total flash rates still exceeded 60 min(sup 1), and portions of the storm featured a complex anomalous charge structure, with midlevel positive charge near 20degC. The storm produced predominantly positive cloud-to-ground lightning. All sprite-parent flashes occurred on the northeastern flank of the storm, where strong westerly upper level flow was consistent with advection of charged precipitation away from convection, providing a pathway for stratiform lightning. The 25 June event was another multicellular hailstorm with an anomalous charge structure that produced 26 positive sprites in less than 1 h. The sprites again occurred during a convective lull, with relatively weaker reflectivity and lower total flash rate but relatively larger mean flash area. However, all sprite parents occurred in or near convection and tapped charge layers in adjacent anvil cloud. The results demonstrate the sprite production by convective ground strokes in anomalously charged storms and also indicate that sprite production and convective vigor are inversely related in mature storms.

Description: From April 2009 to December 2010, the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program carried out an observational field campaign on Graciosa Island, targeting the marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds over the Azores region. In this paper, we present an inter-comparison of the MBL cloud properties, namely, cloud liquid water path (LWP), cloud optical thickness (COT) and cloud-droplet effective radius (CER), among retrievals from the ARM mobile facility (AMF) and two Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud products (GSFC-MODIS and CERES-MODIS). A total of 63 daytime single-layer MBL cloud cases are selected for inter-comparison. Comparison of collocated retrievals indicates that the two MODIS cloud products agree well on both COT and CER retrievals, with the correlation coefficient R greater than 0.95 despite their significant difference in spatial sampling. In both MODIS products, the CER retrievals based on the 2.1 micrometers band (CER(sub 2.1)) is significantly smaller than that based on the 3.7 micrometers band (CER(sub 3.7)). The GSFC-MODIS cloud product is collocated and compared with ground-based ARM observations at several temporal spatial scales. In general, the correlation increases with more precise collocation. For the 63 selected MBL cloud cases, the GSFC-MODIS LWP and COT retrievals agree reasonably well with the ground-based observations with no apparent bias and correlation coefficient R around 0.85 and 0.70, respectively. However, GSFC-MODIS CER(sub 3.7) and CER(sub 2.1) retrievals have a lower correlation (R is approximately 0.5) with the ground-based retrievals. For the 63 selected cases, they are on average larger than ground observations by about 1.5 micrometers and 3.0 micrometers, respectively. Taking into account that the MODIS CER retrievals are only sensitive to cloud top reduces the bias only by 0.5 micrometers.

Description: We analyse simulations performed for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion caused by anthropogenic stratospheric chlorine and bromine. We consider a total of 155 simulations from 20 models, including a range of sensitivity studies which examine the impact of climate change on ozone recovery. For the control simulations (unconstrained by nudging towards analysed meteorology) there is a large spread (+/-20 DU in the global average) in the predictions of the absolute ozone column. Therefore, the model results need to be adjusted for biases against historical data. Also, the interannual variability in the model results need to be smoothed in order to provide a reasonably narrow estimate of the range of ozone return dates. Consistent with previous studies, but here for a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 6.0, these new 10 CCMI simulations project that global total column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2049 (with a 1- uncertainty of 2043-2055). At Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values in 2045 (2039-2050), and at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in 2032 (2020-2044). In the Polar Regions, the return dates are 2060 (2055-2066) in the Antarctic in October and 2034 (2025-2043) in the Arctic in March. The earlier return dates in the NH reflect the larger sensitivity to dynamical changes. Our estimates of return dates are later than those presented in the 2014 Ozone Assessment by approximately 5-17 years, depending on the region, with the previous best estimates often falling outside of our uncertainty range. In the tropics only around half the models predict a return of ozone to 1980 values, at around 2040, while the other half do not reach the 1980 value. All models show a negative trend in tropical total column ozone towards the end of the 21st century. The CCMI models generally agree in their simulation of the time evolution of stratospheric chlorine and bromine, which are the main drivers of ozone loss and recovery. However, there are a few outliers which show that the multi-model mean results for ozone recovery are not as tightly constrained as possible. Throughout the stratosphere the spread of ozone return dates to 1980 values between models tends to correlate with the spread of the return of inorganic chlorine to 1980 values. In the upper stratosphere, greenhouse gas-induced cooling speeds up the return by about 10-20 years. In the lower stratosphere, and for the column, there is a more direct link in the timing of the return dates of ozone and chlorine, especially for the large Antarctic depletion. Comparisons of total column ozone between the models is affected by different predictions of the evolution of tropospheric ozone within the same scenario, presumably due to differing treatment of tropospheric chemistry. Therefore, for many scenarios, clear conclusions can only be drawn for stratospheric ozone columns rather than the total column. As noted by previous studies, the timing of ozone recovery is affected by the evolution of N2O and CH4. However, quantifying the effect in the simulations analysed here is limited by the few realisations available for these experiments compared to internal model variability. The large increase in N2O given in RCP 6.0 extends the ozone return globally by ~15 years relative to N2O fixed at 1960 abundances, mainly because it allows tropical column ozone to be depleted. The effect in extratropical latitudes is much smaller. The large increase in CH4 given in the RCP 8.5 scenario compared to RCP 6.0 also lengthens ozone return by ~15 years, again mainly through its impact in the tropics. Overall, our estimates of ozone return dates are uncertain due to both uncertainties in future scenarios, in particular of greenhouse gases, and uncertainties in models. The scenario uncertainty is small in the short term but increases with time, and becomes large by the end of the century. There are still some model-model differences related to well-known processes which affect ozone recovery. Efforts need to continue to ensure that models used for assessment purposes accurately represent stratospheric chemistry and the prescribed scenarios of ozone-depleting substances, and only those models are used to calculate return dates. For future assessments of single forcing or combined effects of CO2, CH4, and N2O on the stratospheric column ozone return dates, this work suggests that is more important to have multi-member (at least 3) ensembles for each scenario from every established participating model, rather than a large number of individual models.

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Description: The vertical profile of aerosol is important for its radiative effects, but weakly constrained by observations on the global scale, and highly variable among different models. To investigate the controlling factors in one particular model, we investigate the effects of individual processes in HadGEM3-UKCA and compare the resulting diversity of aerosol vertical profiles with the inter-model diversity from the AeroCom Phase II control experiment. In this way we show that (in this model at least) the vertical profile is controlled by a relatively small number of processes, although these vary among aerosol components and particle sizes. We also show that sufficiently coarse variations in these processes can produce a similar diversity to that among different models in terms of the global-mean profile and, to a lesser extent, the zonal-mean vertical position. However, there are features of certain models' profiles that cannot be reproduced, suggesting the influence of further structural differences between models. In HadGEM3-UKCA, convective transport is found to be very important in controlling the vertical profile of all aerosol components by mass. In-cloud scavenging is very important for all except mineral dust. Growth by condensation is important for sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol (along with aqueous oxidation for the former and ageing by soluble material for the latter). The vertical extent of biomass-burning emissions into the free troposphere is also important for the profile of carbonaceous aerosol. Boundary-layer mixing plays a dominant role for sea salt and mineral dust, which are emitted only from the surface. Dry deposition and below-cloud scavenging are important for the profile of mineral dust only. In this model, the microphysical processes of nucleation, condensation and coagulation dominate the vertical profile of the smallest particles by number (e.g. total CN 〉3 nm), while the profiles of larger particles (e.g. CN〉100 nm) are controlled by the same processes as the component mass profiles, plus the size distribution of primary emissions. We also show that the processes that affect the AOD-normalised radiative forcing in the model are predominantly those that affect the vertical mass distribution, in particular convective transport, in-cloud scavenging, aqueous oxidation, ageing and the vertical extent of biomass-burning emissions.

Description: Rapid increases in total lightning (also termed "lightning jumps") have been observed for many decades. Lightning jumps have been well correlated to severe and hazardous weather occurrence. The main focus of lightning jump work has been on the development of lightning algorithms to be used in realtime assessment of storm intensity. However, in these studies it is typically assumed that the updraft "increases" without direct measurements of the vertical motion, or specification of which updraft characteristic actually increases (e.g., average speed, maximum speed, or convective updraft volume). Therefore, an endtoend physical and dynamical basis for coupling rapid increases in total flash rate to increases in updraft speed and volume must be understood in order to ultimately relate lightning occurrence to severe storm metrics. Herein, we use polarimetric, multiDoppler, and lightning mapping array measurements to provide physical context as to why rapid increases in total lightning are closely tied to severe and hazardous weather.

Description: As upper stratospheric ozone appears to be recovering as a result of decreasing chlorine loading following the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments and in agreement with model projections, several recent studies report an apparent decline of ozone concentrations in the lower stratosphere in the last two decades, particularly in the extratropics. Our previous work as well as at least two other studies provide evidence that this decline results from transport changes rather than an intensification of chemical depletion. It remains unclear whether these changes represent long-term internal variability or are a consequence of a climate forcing. Here we perform free-running ensembles of the recent past (1980-2016) using the Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) at the cubed sphere C180 (approximately half degree) resolution. Two suites of 10-member ensembles are performed, one in which observed sea surface temperature (SSTs) are fully prescribed, and the other in which the linear SST trend over the recent past is removed so as to only retain internal variability. We evaluate the trends in both ozone as well as two idealized tracers with prescribed uniform loss that are used to isolate the role of transport from chemistry and emissions. Probability-distribution-functions of the trends in both ozone and idealized tracers are compared among ensemble members and with observed trends in order to evaluate the likelihood of recent observed declines in lower stratospheric ozone, relative to large internal variability. Moreover, comparisons among simulations with and without imposed SST trends indicate the extent to which dynamically-driven ozone trends reflect forced trends or internal variability in lower stratospheric dynamics.

Description: In order to investigate and assess natural hazards such as tropical storms, winter storms, volcanic eruptions, floods, and drought in a timely manner, the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) has been developing an efficient data search and access service. Called Datalist, this service enables users to acquire their data of interest all at once, with minimum effort. A Datalistis a virtual collection of predefined or user-defined data variables from one or more archived data sets. Datalistsare more than just data. Datalistseffectively provide users with a sophisticated integrated data and services package, including metadata, citation, documentation, visualization, and data-specific services (e.g., subset and OPeNDAP), all available from one-stop shopping. The predefined Datalists, created by the experienced GES DISC science support team, should save a significant amount of time that users would otherwise have to spend. The Datalistservice is an extension of the new GES DISC website, which is completely data-driven. A Datalist, also known as data bundle, is treated just as any other data set. Being a virtual collection, a Datalistrequires no extra storage space.