ALBERT

Description: This study has investigated serial (temporal) clustering of extra-tropical cyclones simulated by 17 climate models that participated in CMIP5. Clustering was estimated by calculating the dispersion (ratio of variance to mean) of 30 December-February counts of Atlantic storm tracks passing nearby each grid point. Results from single historical simulations of 1975-2005 were compared to those from historical ERA40 reanalyses from 1958-2001 ERA40 and single future model projections of 2069-2099 under the RCP4.5 climate change scenario. Models were generally able to capture the broad features in reanalyses reported previously: underdispersion/regularity (i.e. variance less than mean) in the western core of the Atlantic storm track surrounded by overdispersion/clustering (i.e. variance greater than mean) to the north and south and over western Europe. Regression of counts onto North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices revealed that much of the overdispersion in the historical reanalyses and model simulations can be accounted for by NAO variability. Future changes in dispersion were generally found to be small and not consistent across models. The overdispersion statistic, for any 30 year sample, is prone to large amounts of sampling uncertainty that obscures the climate change signal. For example, the projected increase in dispersion for storm counts near London in the CNRMCM5 model is 0.1 compared to a standard deviation of 0.25. Projected changes in the mean and variance of NAO are insufficient to create changes in overdispersion that are discernible above natural sampling variations.

Description: Cyclone clusters are a frequent synoptic feature in the Euro-Atlantic area. Recent studies have shown that serial clustering of cyclones generally occurs on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track, while cyclones tend to occur more regulary on the western side of the North Atlantic basin near Newfoundland. This study explores the sensitivity of serial clustering to the choice of cyclone tracking method using cyclone track data from 15 methods derived from ERA-Interim data (1979–2010). Clustering is estimated by the dispersion (ratio of variance to mean) of winter [December – February (DJF)] cyclone passages near each grid point over the Euro-Atlantic area. The mean number of cyclone counts and their variance are compared between methods, revealing considerable differences, particularly for the latter. Results show that all different tracking methods qualitatively capture similar large-scale spatial patterns of underdispersion and overdispersion over the study region. The quantitative differences can primarily be attributed to the differences in the variance of cyclone counts between the methods. Nevertheless, overdispersion is statistically significant for almost all methods over parts of the eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe, and is therefore considered as a robust feature. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on cyclone clustering displays a similar pattern for all tracking methods, with one maximum near Iceland and another between the Azores and Iberia. The differences in variance between methods are not related with different sensitivities to the NAO, which can account to over 50% of the clustering in some regions. We conclude that the general features of underdispersion and overdispersion of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Western Europe are robust to the choice of tracking method. The same is true for the influence of the NAO on cyclone dispersion. Keywords: Poisson process, extratropical cyclones, clustering, dispersion statistics, North Atlantic, Europe, IMILAST, reanalysis (Published: 27 July 2016) Citation: Tellus A 2016, 68 , 32204, http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.32204

Description: This study investigates whether or not predictability always decreases for more extreme events. Predictability is measured by the Mean Squared Error (MSE), estimated here from the difference of pairs of ensemble forecasts, conditioned on one of the forecast variables (the “pseudo-observation”) exceeding a threshold. Using an exchangeable linear regression model for pairs of forecast variables, we show that the MSE can be decomposed into the sum of three terms: a threshold-independent constant, a mean term that always increases with threshold, and a variance term that can either increase, decrease, or stay constant with threshold. Using the Generalised Pareto Distribution to model wind speed excesses over a threshold, we show that MSE always increases with threshold at sufficiently high threshold. However, MSE can be a decreasing function of threshold at lower thresholds but only if the forecasts have finite upper bounds. The methods are illustrated by application to daily wind speed forecasts for London made using the 24 member Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System from 1 Jan 2009 to 31 May 2011. For this example, the mean term increases faster than the variance term decreases with increasing threshold, and so predictability decreases for more extreme events.

Description: Extreme wave events in coastal zones are principal drivers of geomorphic change. Evidence of boulder entrainment and erosional impact during storms is increasing. However, there is currently poor time coupling between pre- and post-storm measurements of coastal boulder deposits. Importantly there are no data reporting shore platform erosion, boulder entrainment and/or boulder transport during storm events – rock coast dynamics during storm events are currently unexplored. Here, we use high-resolution (daily) field data to measure and characterise coastal boulder transport before, during and after the extreme Northeast Atlantic extra-tropical cyclone Johanna in March 2008. Forty-eight limestone fine-medium boulders (n = 46) and coarse cobbles (n = 2) were tracked daily over a 0.1 km 2 intertidal area during this multi-day storm. Boulders were repeatedly entrained, transported and deposited, and in some cases broken down (n = 1) or quarried (n = 3), during the most intense days of the storm. Eighty-one percent (n = 39) of boulders were located at both the start and end of the storm. Of these, 92% were entrained where entrainment patterns were closely aligned to wave parameters. These data firmly demonstrate rock coasts are dynamic and vulnerable under storm conditions. No statistically significant relationship was found between boulder size (mass) and net transport distance. Graphical analyses suggest that boulder size limits the maximum longshore transport distance but that for the majority of boulders lying under this threshold, other factors influence transport distance. Paired analysis of 20 similar sized and shaped boulders in different morphogenic zones demonstrates that geomorphological control affects entrainment and transport distance – where net transport distances were up to 39 times less where geomorphological control was greatest. These results have important implications for understanding and for accurately measuring and modelling boulder entrainment and transport. Coastal managers require these data for assessing erosion risk.

Description: The microtopography of two sandstone blocks with and without colonization of biofilms were measured with a traversing micro‐erosoin meter (TMEM) under different simulated environmental conditions. Two‐hourly microtopographic fluctuations of supratidal sandstone were mainly induced by the colonized biofilms and influenced by environmental factors. By increasing the magnitude and number of cycles of expansion and contraction, lithobiontic biofilms were proposed to play an erosive role in rock decay at hourly scale. Abstract In this study laboratory experiments were used to explore the role of biofilms, formed by lithobiontic microorganism communities, in causing hourly surface changes of supratidal sandstone and the potential linkage to long‐term rock decay. To isolate the influence of individual environmental factors (temperature and humidity) on rock surface changes (expansion and contraction), a colonized (biofilm‐covered) and a non‐colonized sandstone block (biofilm‐free) underwent the same univariate microclimatic simulations closely controlled by an environmental chamber. Simulations were run under three different light conditions, with a natural light lamp on, on and off at 20‐min intervals and off, to investigate the impact of light on rock surface dynamics. Measured with a traversing micro‐erosion meter (TMEM), two‐hourly microtopographic fluctuations of these two sandstone blocks were compared in the same environment. Induced by microclimatic variations, surface movements of significantly higher magnitude (12–120% under varying tempeature and 121–154% under varying humidity) and different change patterns were observed on the colonized block, indicating the primary role of biofilm in driving microtopographic fluctuations of supratidal sandstone. However, thermally driven changes of similar magnitude and pattern were observed on both surfaces, suggesting other mechanisms also operating on the non‐colonized rock surface in this process. Due to the sensitivity of biofilm microorganism communities to light, the magnitude and pattern of surface changes was impacted by light condition. Because biofilms increased the magnitude and number of cycles of expansion and contraction of the experimental rock surface, we propose that lithobiontic biofilms facilitate the detachment of grains and granular disintegration on the rock surface, consequently contributing to rock decay and accelerating the rate of breakdown of supratidal rock. This short‐term episode therefore needs to be superimposed on longer term studies to fully understand the role of biofilms in rock surface change. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.