ALBERT

Description: Hydrological observatories bear a lot of resemblance to the more traditional research catchment concept, but tend to differ in providing more long-term facilities that transcend the lifetime of individual projects, are more strongly geared towards performing interdisciplinary research, and are often designed as networks to assist in performing collaborative science. This paper illustrates how the experimental and monitoring set-up of an observatory, the 66 ha Hydrological Open Air Laboratory (HOAL) in Petzenkirchen, Lower Austria, has been established in a way that allows meaningful hypothesis testing. The overarching science questions guided site selection, identification of dissertation topics and the base monitoring. The specific hypotheses guided the dedicated monitoring and sampling, individual experiments, and repeated experiments with controlled boundary conditions. The purpose of the HOAL is to advance the understanding of water-related flow and transport processes involving sediments, nutrients and microbes in small catchments. The HOAL catchment is ideally suited for this purpose, because it features a range of different runoff generation processes (surface runoff, springs, tile drains, wetlands), the nutrient inputs are known, and it is convenient from a logistic point of view as all instruments can be connected to the power grid and a high-speed glassfibre local area network (LAN). The multitude of runoff generation mechanisms in the catchment provides a genuine laboratory where hypotheses of flow and transport can be tested, either by controlled experiments or by contrasting sub-regions of different characteristics. This diversity also ensures that the HOAL is representative of a range of catchments around the world, and the specific process findings from the HOAL are applicable to a variety of agricultural catchment settings. The HOAL is operated jointly by the Vienna University of Technology and the Federal Agency for Water Management and takes advantage of the Vienna Doctoral Programme on Water Resource Systems funded by the Austrian Science Funds. The paper presents the science strategy of the set-up of the observatory, discusses the implementation of the HOAL, gives examples of the hypothesis testing and summarises the lessons learned. The paper concludes with an outlook on future developments.

Description: Hydrological observatories bear a lot of resemblance to the more traditional research catchment concept but tend to differ in providing more long term facilities that transcend the lifetime of individual projects, are more strongly geared towards performing interdisciplinary research, and are often designed as networks to assist in performing collaborative science. This paper illustrates how the experimental and monitoring setup of an observatory, the 66 ha Hydrological Open Air Laboratory (HOAL) in Petzenkirchen, Lower Austria, has been established in a way that allows meaningful hypothesis testing. The overarching science questions guided site selection, identifying dissertation topics and the base monitoring. The specific hypotheses guided the dedicated monitoring and sampling, individual experiments, and repeated experiments with controlled boundary conditions. The purpose of the HOAL is to advance the understanding of water related flow and transport processes involving sediments, nutrients and microbes in small catchments. The HOAL catchment is ideally suited for this purpose, because it features a range of different runoff generation processes (surface runoff, springs, tile drains, wetlands), the nutrient inputs are known, and it is convenient from a logistic point of view as all instruments can be connected to the power grid and a high speed glassfibre Local Area Network. The multitude of runoff generation mechanisms in the catchment provide a genuine laboratory where hypotheses of flow and transport can be tested, either by controlled experiments or by contrasting sub-regions of different characteristics. This diversity also ensures that the HOAL is representative of a range of catchments around the world and the specific process findings from the HOAL are applicable to a variety of agricultural catchment settings. The HOAL is operated jointly by the Vienna University of Technology and the Federal Agency for Water Management and takes advantage of the Vienna Doctoral Programme on Water Resource Systems funded by the Austrian Science Funds. The paper presents the science strategy of the setup of the observatory, discusses the implementation of the HOAL, gives examples of the hypothesis testing and summarises the lessons learned. The paper concludes with an outlook on future developments.

Description: Black carbon (BC) in snow in the Himalayas has recently attracted considerable interest due to its impact on snow albedo, snow and glacier melting, regional climate and water resources. A single particle soot photometer (SP2) instrument was used to measure refractory BC (rBC) in a series of surface snow samples collected in the upper Khumbu Valley, Nepal between November 2009 and February 2012. The obtained time series indicates annual cycles with maximum rBC concentrations before the onset of the monsoon season and fast decreases during the monsoon period. Detected concentrations ranged from a few up to 70 ppb with rather large uncertainties due to the handling of the samples. Detailed modeling of the snowpack, including the detected range and an estimated upper limit of BC concentrations, was performed to study the role of BC in the seasonal snowpack. Simulations were performed for three winter seasons with the snowpack model Crocus, including a detailed description of the radiative transfer inside the snowpack. While the standard Crocus model strongly overestimates the height and the duration of the seasonal snowpack, a better calculation of the snow albedo with the new radiative transfer scheme enhanced the representation of the snow. However, the period with snow on the ground without BC in the snow was still overestimated between 37 and 66 days, which was further diminished by 8 to 15 % and more than 40 % in the presence of 100 or 300 ppb of BC. Compared to snow without BC, the albedo is reduced on average by 0.027 and 0.060 in the presence of 100 and 300 ppb BC. While the impact of increasing BC in the snow on the albedo was largest for clean snow, the impact on the local radiative forcing is the opposite. Here, increasing BC caused an even larger impact at higher BC concentrations. This effect is related to an accelerated melting of the snowpack caused by a more efficient metamorphism of the snow due to an increasing size of the snow grains with increasing BC concentrations. The melting of the winter snowpack was shifted by 3 to 10 and 17 to 27 days during the three winter seasons in the presence of 100 and 300 ppb BC compared to clean snow, while the simulated annual local radiative forcing corresponds to 3 to 4.5 and 10.5 to 13.0 W m−2. An increased sublimation or evaporation of the snow reduces the simulated radiative forcing, leading to a net forcing that is lower by 0.5 to 1.5 W m−2, while the addition of 10 ppm dust causes an increase of the radiative forcing between 2.5 and 3 W m−2. According to the simulations, 7.5 ppm of dust has an effect equivalent to 100 ppb of BC concerning the impact on the melting of the snowpack and the local radiative forcing.

Description: The current work addresses one of the key building blocks towards an improved understanding of flood processes and associated changes in flood characteristics and regimes in Europe: the development of a comprehensive, extensive European flood database. The presented work results from ongoing cross-border research collaborations initiated with data collection and joint interpretation in mind. A detailed account of the current state, characteristics and spatial and temporal coverage of the European Flood Database, is presented. At this stage, the hydrological data collection is still growing and consists at this time of annual maximum and daily mean discharge series, from over 7000 hydrometric stations of various data series lengths. Moreover, the database currently comprises data from over 50 different data sources. The time series have been obtained from different national and regional data sources in a collaborative effort of a joint European flood research agreement based on the exchange of data, models and expertise, and from existing international data collections and open source websites. These ongoing efforts are contributing to advancing the understanding of regional flood processes beyond individual country boundaries and to a more coherent flood research in Europe.

Description: Soil temperature (Ts) change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. On seasonal and interannual timescales, the variability of Ts determines the active-layer depth, which regulates hydrological soil properties and biogeochemical processes. On the multi-decadal scale, increasing Ts not only drives permafrost thaw/retreat but can also trigger and accelerate the decomposition of soil organic carbon. The magnitude of permafrost carbon feedbacks is thus closely linked to the rate of change of soil thermal regimes. In this study, we used nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, all forced by different observation-based climate forcing during the period 1960–2000, to characterize the warming rate of Ts in permafrost regions. There is a large spread of Ts trends at 20 cm depth across the models, with trend values ranging from 0.010 ± 0.003 to 0.031 ± 0.005 °C yr−1. Most models show smaller increase in Ts with increasing depth. Air temperature (Tsub〉a) and longwave downward radiation (LWDR) are the main drivers of Ts trends, but their relative contributions differ amongst the models. Different trends of LWDR used in the forcing of models can explain 61 % of their differences in Ts trends, while trends of Ta only explain 5 % of the differences in Ts trends. Uncertain climate forcing contributes a larger uncertainty in Ts trends (0.021 ± 0.008 °C yr−1, mean ± standard deviation) than the uncertainty of model structure (0.012 ± 0.001 °C yr−1), diagnosed from the range of response between different models, normalized to the same forcing. In addition, the loss rate of near-surface permafrost area, defined as total area where the maximum seasonal active-layer thickness (ALT) is less than 3 m loss rate, is found to be significantly correlated with the magnitude of the trends of Ts at 1 m depth across the models (R = −0.85, P = 0.003), but not with the initial total near-surface permafrost area (R = −0.30, P = 0.438). The sensitivity of the total boreal near-surface permafrost area to Ts at 1 m is estimated to be of −2.80 ± 0.67 million km2 °C−1. Finally, by using two long-term LWDR data sets and relationships between trends of LWDR and Ts across models, we infer an observation-constrained total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprising between 39 ± 14  ×  103 and 75 ± 14  ×  103 km2 yr−1 from 1960 to 2000. This corresponds to 9–18 % degradation of the current permafrost area.

Description: Soil temperature (Ts) change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. On seasonal and inter-annual time scales, the variability of Ts determines the active layer depth, which regulates hydrological soil properties and biogeochemical processes. On the multi-decadal scale, increasing Ts not only drives permafrost thaw/retreat, but can also trigger and accelerate the decomposition of soil organic carbon. The magnitude of permafrost carbon feedbacks is thus closely linked to the rate of change of soil thermal regimes. In this study, we used nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, all forced by different observation-based climate forcing during the period 1960–2000, to characterize the warming rate of Ts in permafrost regions. There is a large spread of Ts trends at 20 cm depth across the models, with trend values ranging from 0.010 ± 0.003 to 0.031 ± 0.005 °C yr−1. Most models show smaller increase in Ts with increasing depth. Air temperature (Ta) and longwave downward radiation (LWDR) are the main drivers of Ts trends, but their relative contributions differ amongst the models. Different trends of LWDR used in the forcing of models can explain 61% of their differences in Ts trends, while trends of Ta only explain 5% of the differences in Ts trends. Uncertain climate forcing contributes a larger uncertainty in Ts trends (0.021 ± 0.008 °C yr−1, mean ± SD) than the uncertainty of model structure (0.012 ± 0.001 °C yr−1), diagnosed from the range of response between different models, normalized to the same forcing. In addition, the loss rate of near-surface permafrost area, defined as total area where the maximum seasonal active layer thickness (ALT) is less than 3 m loss rate is found to be significantly correlated with the magnitude of the trends of Ts at 1 m depth across the models (R = −0.85, P = 0.003), but not with the initial total near-surface permafrost area (R = −0.30, P = 0.438). The sensitivity of the total boreal near-surface permafrost area to Ts at 1 m, is estimated to be of −2.80 ± 0.67 million km2 °C−1. Finally, by using two long-term LWDR datasets and relationships between trends of LWDR and Ts across models, we infer an observation-constrained total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprised between 39 ± 14 × 103 and 75 ± 14 × 103 km2 yr−1 from 1960 to 2000. This corresponds to 9–18% degradation of the current permafrost area.

Description: This paper discusses how epistemic uncertainties are considered in a number of different natural hazard areas including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. In each case it is common practice to treat most uncertainties in the form of aleatory probability distributions but this may lead to an underestimation of the resulting uncertainties in assessing the hazard, consequences and risk. It is suggested that such analyses might be usefully extended by looking at different scenarios of assumptions about sources of epistemic uncertainty, with a view to reducing the element of surprise in future hazard occurrences. Since every analysis is necessarily conditional on the assumptions made about the nature of sources of epistemic uncertainty it is also important to follow the guidelines for good practice suggested in the companion Part 1 by setting out those assumptions in a condition tree.

Description: The 2006 Guinsaugon landslide in St. Bernard, Southern Leyte is one of the largest known landslides in the Philippines in recent history. It consists of a 15–20 million m3 rockslide-debris avalanche from an approximately 675 m high mountain weakened by continuous movement of the Philippine fault. The catastrophic Guinsaugon landslide killed 1221 people and displaced 19 000 residents over its 4.5 km path. To investigate the present day morphology of the scar and potential failure that may occur, analysis of a 5 m resolution IfSAR-derived Digital Elevation Model was conducted using Coltop3D and Matterocking software, leading to the generation of a landslide hazard map for the province of Southern Leyte in Central Philippines. The dip and dip-direction of discontinuity sets that contribute to gravitational failure in mountainous areas of the province were identified and measured using a lower Schmidt-Lambert color scheme. After measurement of the morpho-structural orientations, potential sites of failure were analyzed. Conefall was then utilized to compute the extent of rock mass runout. Results of the analysis show instability in the scarp area of the 2006 Guinsaugon landslide and in adjacent slopes because of the presence of steep discontinuities that range from 45–60°. Apart from the 2006 Guinsaugon landslide site, runout models simulated farther rock mass extent in its adjacent slopes, revealing a high potential for fatal landslides to happen in the municipality of St. Bernard. Concerned agencies may use maps produced in the same manner as this study to identify possible sites where structurally-controlled landslides can occur. In a country like the Philippines, where fractures and faults are common, this type of simulated hazard maps would be useful for disaster prevention and facilitate disaster risk reduction efforts for landslide-susceptible areas.

Description: Uncertainties in natural hazard risk assessment are generally dominated by the sources arising from lack of knowledge or understanding of the processes involved. There is a lack of knowledge about frequencies, process representations, parameters, present and future boundary conditions, consequences and impacts, and the meaning of observations in evaluating simulation models. These are the epistemic uncertainties that can be difficult to constrain, especially in terms of event or scenario probabilities, even as elicited probabilities rationalized on the basis of expert judgements. This paper reviews the issues raised by trying to quantify the effects of epistemic uncertainties. Such scientific uncertainties might have significant influence on decisions that are made for risk management, so it is important to communicate the meaning of an uncertainty estimate and to provide an audit trail of the assumptions on which it is based. Some suggestions for good practice in doing so are made.

Description: Knowledge of the hydrological mechanisms behind habitat fragmentation of fen plant communities in intensively managed regions like The Netherlands is essential to improve currently utilized fen restoration and conservation strategies. In this study, we analysed the local and regional impact of anthropogenic drainage on the groundwater supply of fens. For this purpose, we developed fine-scale groundwater flow models and collected empirical data to analyse (1) the differences in groundwater supply between an anthropogenically drained fen and a poorly drained fen in The Netherlands, and (2) the local and regional effects of the elimination of drainage ditches on the groundwater supply of fens. Our results consistently indicated the presence of recently infiltrated precipitation on top of upwelling groundwater across the anthropogenically drained fen, and a mixing gradient of recently infiltrated precipitation and upwelling groundwater across the poorly drained fen. Furthermore, our results showed that the elimination of drainage ditches from the anthropogenically drained fen increased the area and the flux of groundwater supply of both the anthropogenically drained fen and the poorly drained fen. We conclude that anthropogenic drainage not only causes a lowering of groundwater tables, but also (1) enhances the infiltration of local precipitation across fens while simultaneously preventing upwelling groundwater from entering the fen root zone, and (2) reduces the groundwater supply of adjacent fens by intercepting groundwater that is potentially directed to downstream regions. These insights support the need to reconsider the current priorities in hydrological fen restoration strategies.