ALBERT

Description: The periodic spectroscopic events in Eta Carinae are now well established and occur near the periastron passage of two massive stars in a very eccentric orbit. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the variations of different spectral features, such as an eclipse by the wind-wind collision boundary, a shell ejection from the primary star or accretion of its wind onto the secondary. All of them have problems explaining all the observed phenomena. To better understand the nature of the cyclic events we performed a dense monitoring of Eta Carinae with 5 Southern telescopes during the 2009 low excitation event, resulting in a set of data of unprecedented quality and sampling. The intrinsic luminosity of the He II lambda-4686 emission line (L approx 310 solar L) just before periastron reveals the presence of a very luminous transient source of extreme UV radiation emitted in the wind-wind collision (WWC) region. Clumps in the primary's wind probably explain the flare-like behavior of both the X-ray and He II lambda-4686 light-curves. After a short-lived minimum, He II lambda-4686 emission rises again to a new maximum, when X-rays are still absent or very weak. We interpret this as a collapse of the WWC onto the "surface" of the secondary star, switching off the hard X-ray source and diminishing the WWC shock cone. The recovery from this state is controlled by the momentum balance between the secondary's wind and the clumps in the primary's wind.

Description: Intense daytime surface heating over barren-to-sparsely vegetated surfaces results in dry convective mixing. In the absence of external forcing such as mountain waves, the dry convection can produce a deep, well-mixed, nearly isentropic boundary layer that becomes a well-mixed residual layer in the evening. These well-mixed layers (WML) retain their unique mid-tropospheric thermal and humidity structure for several days. To detect the SAL and characterize its properties, AIRS Level 2 Ver. 6 temperature and humidity products (2003-Present) are evaluated against rawinsondes and compared to model analysis at each of the 55 rawinsonde stations in northern Africa. To distinguish WML from Saharan air layers (WMLs of Saharan origin), the detection involved a two-step process: 1) algorithm-based detection of WMLs in dry environments (less than 7 g per kilogram mixing ratio) 2) identification of Sahara air layers (SAL) by applying Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) back trajectories to determine the history of each WML. WML occurrence rates from AIRS closely resemble that from rawinsondes, yet rates from model analysis were up to 30% higher than observations in the Sahara due to model errors. Despite the overly frequent occurrence of WMLs from model analysis, HYSPLIT trajectory analysis showed that SAL occurrence rates (given a WML exists) from rawinsondes, AIRS, and model analysis were nearly identical. Although the number of WMLs varied among the data sources, the proportion of WMLs which were classified as SAL was nearly the same. The analysis of SAL bulk properties showed that AIRS and model analysis exhibited a slight warm and moist bias relative to rawinsondes in non-Saharan locations, but model analysis was notably warmer than rawinsondes and AIRS within the Sahara. The latter result is likely associated with the dearth of available data assimilated by model analysis in the Sahara. The variability of SAL thicknesses was reasonably captured by both AIRS and model analysis, but the former favor layers than are thinner than observations. Finally, further analysis of HYSPLIT trajectories revealed that fewer than 10% and 33% of all SAL back trajectories passed through regions with notable precipitation (〉100 mm accumulated along the trajectory path) or Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD greater than 0.4, 75th percentile of AOD) on average, respectively. Trajectory analysis indicated that only 57% of Saharan and 24% of non-Saharan WMLs are definitively of Saharan origin (Saharan requirement: Two consecutive days in Sahara and 24 or more of those hours within 72 hours of detection). Non-SAL WMLs either originate from local-to-regionally generated residual layers or from mid-latitude air streams that do not linger over the Sahara for a sufficient time period. Initial analysis shows these non-SAL WMLs tend to be both notably cooler and slightly moister than their SAL counter parts. Continuing analysis will address what role Saharan and non-Saharan air masses characteristics may play on local and regional environmental conditions.

Description: This study evaluated the impact of five single- or double-moment bulk microphysics schemes (BMPSs) on Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) simulations of seven intense wintertime cyclones impacting the mid-Atlantic United States; 5-day long WRF simulations were initialized roughly 24 hours prior to the onset of coastal cyclogenesis off the North Carolina coastline. In all, 35 model simulations (five BMPSs and seven cases) were run and their associated microphysics-related storm properties (hydrometer mixing ratios, precipitation, and radar reflectivity) were evaluated against model analysis and available gridded radar and ground-based precipitation products. Inter-BMPS comparisons of column-integrated mixing ratios and mixing ratio profiles reveal little variability in non-frozen hydrometeor species due to their shared programming heritage, yet their assumptions concerning snow and graupel intercepts, ice supersaturation, snow and graupel density maps, and terminal velocities led to considerable variability in both simulated frozen hydrometeor species and radar reflectivity. WRF-simulated precipitation fields exhibit minor spatiotemporal variability amongst BMPSs, yet their spatial extent is largely conserved. Compared to ground-based precipitation data, WRF simulations demonstrate low-to-moderate (0.217 to 0.414) threat scores and a rainfall distribution shifted toward higher values. Finally, an analysis of WRF and gridded radar reflectivity data via contoured frequency with altitude (CFAD) diagrams reveals notable variability amongst BMPSs, where better performing schemes favored lower graupel mixing ratios and better underlying aggregation assumptions.

Description: Calving of glacial ice into the ocean from the Greenland Ice Sheet is an important component of global sea-level rise. The calving process itself is relatively poorly observed, understood, and modeled; as such, it represents a bottleneck in improving future global sea-level estimates in climate models. We organized a pilot project to observe the calving process at Helheim Glacier in east Greenland in an effort to better understand it. During an intensive one-week survey, we deployed a suite of instrumentation, including a terrestrial radar interferometer, global positioning system (GPS) receivers, seismometers, tsunameters, and an automated weather station. We were fortunate to capture a calving process and to measure various glaciological, oceanographic, and atmospheric parameters before, during, and after the event. One outcome of our observations is evidence that the calving process actually consists of a number of discrete events, spread out over time, in this instance over at least two days. This time span has implications for models of the process. Realistic projections of future global sea level will depend on an accurate parametrization of calving, and we argue that more sustained observations will be required to reach this objective.

Description: The meridional extent and complex orography of the South American continent contributes to a wide diversity of climate regimes ranging from hyper-arid deserts to tropical rainforests to sub-polar highland regions. In addition, South American meteorology and climate are also made further complicated by ENSO, a powerful coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon. Modelling studies in this region have typically resorted to either atmospheric mesoscale or atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models. The latter offers full physics and high spatial resolution, but it is computationally inefficient typically lack an interactive ocean, whereas the former offers high computational efficiency and ocean-atmosphere coupling, but it lacks adequate spatial and temporal resolution to adequate resolve the complex orography and explicitly simulate precipitation. Explicit simulation of precipitation is vital in the Central Andes where rainfall rates are light (0.5-5 mm hr-1), there is strong seasonality, and most precipitation is associated with weak mesoscale-organized convection. Recent increases in both computational power and model development have led to the advent of coupled ocean-atmosphere mesoscale models for both weather and climate study applications. These modelling systems, while computationally expensive, include two-way ocean-atmosphere coupling, high resolution, and explicit simulation of precipitation. In this study, we use the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST), a fully-coupled mesoscale atmosphere-ocean modeling system. Previous work has shown COAWST to reasonably simulate the entire 2003-2004 wet season (Dec-Feb) as validated against both satellite and model analysis data when ECMWF interim analysis data were used for boundary conditions on a 27-9-km grid configuration (Outer grid extent: 60.4S to 17.7N and 118.6W to 17.4W).

Description: We examine the diagnostic power of rest-frame ultraviolet (UV) nebular emission lines, and compare them to more commonly used rest-frame optical emission lines, using the test case of a single star-forming knot of the bright lensed galaxy RCSGA 032727132609 at redshift z 1.7. This galaxy has complete coverage of all the major rest-frame UV and optical emission lines from Magellan/MagE and Keck/NIRSPEC. Using the full suite of diagnostic lines, we infer the physical properties: nebular electron temperature (T(sub e)), electron density (n(sub e)), oxygen abundance (log (O/H), ionization parameter [log (q), and interstellar medium (ISM) pressure (log (P/k)]. We examine the effectiveness of the different UV, optical, and joint UVoptical spectra in constraining the physical conditions. Using UV lines alone we can reliably estimate log (q), but the same is difficult for log (O/H). UV lines yield a higher (1.5 dex) log (P/k) than the optical lines, as the former probes a further inner nebular region than the latter. For this comparison, we extend the existing Bayesian inference code IZI, adding to it the capability to infer ISM pressure simultaneously with metallicity and ionization parameter. This work anticipates future rest-frame UV spectral data sets from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) at high redshift and from the Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) at moderate redshift.

Description: Advances in computing power allow atmospheric prediction and general circulation models to be run at progressively finer scales of resolution, using increasingly more sophisticated physical parameterizations. The representation of cloud microphysical processes is one of key components of these models. In addition, over the past decade both research and operational numerical weather prediction models have started using more complex microphysical schemes that were originally developed for high-resolution cloud-resolving models (CRMs). In the paper, we described different microphysics schemes that are used in Goddard Multi-scale Modeling System. There are three major models, Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE), NASA Unified Weather Research Forecast (NU-WRF) and Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) model, in this modeling system. The microphysics schemes are Goddard three class ice (3ICE) and four class (4ICE) scheme, Morrison two moments (2M) 3ICE, Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) 2M five class ice (5ICE) and spectral bin microphysics schemes. The performance of these schemes are examined and compared with radar and satellite observation. In addition, the inter-comparison with different microphysics schemes are conducted. Current and future observations needed for microphysics schemes evaluation as well as major characteristics of current microphysics are discussed.

Description: We investigated the local- and regional-scale thermodynamical and dynamical environments associated with intense convective systems in West Africa during 2003. We identified convective system cases from TRMM microwave imagery, classifying each case by the system minimum 85-GHz brightness temperature and by the estimated elapsed time of propagation from high terrain. The speed of the mid-level jet, the magnitude of the low-level shear, and the surface equivalent potential temperature (theta(sub e)) were greater for the intense cases compared to the non-intense cases, although the differences between the means tended to be small, less than 3K for surface theta(sub e). Hypothesis testing of a series of commonly used intensity prediction metrics resulted in significant results only for low-level metrics such as convective available potential energy and not for any of the mid- or upper-level metrics such as 700-hPa theta(sub e). None of the environmental variables or intensity metrics by themselves or in combination appeared to be reliable direct predictors of intensity. In the regional scale analysis, the majority of intense convective systems occurred in the surface baroclinic zone where surface theta(sub e) exceeded 344 K and the 700-hPa zonal wind speeds were less than -6/ms. Fewer intense cases compared to non-intense cases were associated with African easterly wave troughs. Fewer than 25% of our cases occurred in environments with detectable Saharan dust loads, and the results for intense and non-intense cases were similar. Our results for the regional analysis were consistent with the seasonal movement of the WAM and the intertropical front, regional differences in topography, and AEW energetics.