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  • 2020-2024  (2)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2024-02-01
    Description: Net-zero energy system configurations can be met in numerous ways, implying diverse economic effects. However, what is usually ignored in techno-economic and economy-wide analysis are the distinct social-political drivers and barriers, which might constrain certain elements of future energy systems. We thus apply a model ensemble that defines social-political storylines which constrain feasible net-zero configurations of the European energy system. Using these configurations in a macroeconomic general equilibrium model allows us to explore economy-wide effects and ultimately the cost-effectiveness of different systems. We find that social-political storylines provide valuable boundary conditions for feasible net-zero designs of the energy system and that the costliest energy sector configuration in fact leads to the highest European-wide welfare levels. This result originates in indirect effects, particularly positive employment effects, covered by the macroeconomic model. However, adverse public budget effects on the transition to net-zero energy may limit the willingness of policymakers who focus on shorter time-horizons to foster such a development. Our results highlight the relevance of considering the interaction of energy system-changes with labor, emission allowance and capital markets, as well as considering long-term perspectives.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2024-02-13
    Description: This report contributes to the modelling work in SENTINEL and beyond in three main ways. First, we provide three social storylines that are closely linked to different governance logics and build on observed social and political drivers and barriers in the European energy transition. This is different than most other storylines used for modelling, because ours are based on governance patterns and normative assumptions of a “good future”, and not on the more commonly used geopolitical or techno-economic storyline assumptions. Second, we provide quantitative, empirical data for several important social/political parameters that can be used together with the storylines or as separate building blocks to answer specific research questions with energy models. Third, to test the usefulness of QTDIAN, we have soft-linked QTDIAN with the energy demand models DESSTINEE, HEB and DREEM, the energy system design model Euro-Calliope, and indirectly with the economic model WEGDYN. Based on feedback from the modelling exercises, we have revised QTDIAN and publish now this updated report 2.0 to improve its usefulness for a more realistic analysis of potential future energy systems.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/report
    Format: application/pdf
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