ALBERT

Description: The scientific community is well aware of the anthropogenic global warming and its consequences at regional level. However, the public is still not informed well enough, and may be confused especially due to the overwhelming, often contradictory social media environment. This is why we initiated a project with the aim to present and explain scientific results of regional climate change via a national platform (www.masfelfok.hu) established for climate awareness dissemination towards public, within this framework we also use a broad media platform and a large social media network as well. The message is formed as well-illustrated short studies focusing on various seasonally relevant climate indicators, mainly related to climatic extremes. The scientific background is based on calculations using reliable data: observation-based homogenized fine-resolution gridded data for Hungary (HUCLIM), outputs (i.e. CMIP6 data) from global climate model simulations with natural-only forcing as well as historical forcing (when anthropogenic concentration changes are also taken into account), regional climate model simulation outputs (i.e. EUROCORDEX data) for past decades (beginning from the last quarter of the 20th century) and future decades until the end of 21st century with strong mitigation, lighter mitigation, and non-mitigation scenarios. Studies are published in every 4-6 weeks, and online and traditional media connections are also used to outreach the public.

Description: Among compound events, wet-windy events are especially challenging to analyze due to the high spatial and temporal variability of both wind and precipitation. This study aims to analyze extreme wind gusts occurring together with substantial daily precipitation in Hungary. For this purpose, station data are used from 20 meteorological stations (in the form of SYNOP codes with hourly data and special strong wind cases), and gridded homogenized data (HUCLIM with 0.1° resolution compiled by the Hungarian Meteorological Service) for the target region of Hungary, the data coverage is from 2001 to 2022. The analysis focuses on high wind-gust events with at least 17 m/s (= 8 on the Beaufort scale) on days when the total precipitation exceeds 10 mm (defined as heavy rains). The results show that compound events occur in the case of cyclonic (wind) storms, or the cold frontal system of midlatitude cyclones mainly in the winter half-year, or thunderstorms in the summer half-year. In addition to the analysis of past events, we extend the study towards the future on the basis of regional climate model simulations using different scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) from EURO-CORDEX database, thus, the results serve as a key input for developing appropriate adaptation strategies.

Description: Anthropogenic global climate change results in changes of regional extremes as well as in changes in large-scale circulation patterns. The aim of this study is to analyze the past and future trends of the spatial extension, frequency, duration and intensity of temperature extremes (both heat- and freeze-related). For this purpose, we use extreme climate indices derived from daily minimum, maximum and mean temperature (Tmin, Tmax, Tmean, respectively). Datasets are used from the following sources: observation-based gridded data for Hungary (i.e. HUCLIM, 1971-2020), regional climate model simulation outputs (i.e. EURO-CORDEX data, 1951-2100) including both historical (1951-2005) and scenario (2006-2100) runs. The target area of the study is Hungary, surrounded by the Carpathian mountain chains, so anticyclones can dominate the majority or even the entire area of the Carpathian basin. Here, anticyclones tend to result in cold conditions in winter due to long, cloud-free nights, whereas heatwaves in summer due to intense solar radiation during dry days. This is why the periods of both severe winter days (when Tmin 〈 -10 °C) and intense heatwave days (when Tmean 〉 27 °C for at least 3 days, Tmax 〉 35 °C) are analyzed in this poster.