ALBERT

Description: Highlights • Code comparisons build confidence in simulators to model interdependent processes. • International hydrate reservoir simulators are compared over five complex problems. • Geomechanical processes significantly impact response of gas hydrate reservoirs. • Simulators yielded comparable results, however many differences are noted. • Equivalent constitutive models are required to achieve agreement across simulators. Geologic reservoirs containing gas hydrate occur beneath permafrost environments and within marine continental slope sediments, representing a potentially vast natural gas source. Numerical simulators provide scientists and engineers with tools for understanding how production efficiency depends on the numerous, interdependent (coupled) processes associated with potential production strategies for these gas hydrate reservoirs. Confidence in the modeling and forecasting abilities of these gas hydrate reservoir simulators (GHRSs) grows with successful comparisons against laboratory and field test results, but such results are rare, particularly in natural settings. The hydrate community recognized another approach to building confidence in the GHRS: comparing simulation results between independently developed and executed computer codes on structured problems specifically tailored to the interdependent processes relevant for gas hydrate-bearing systems. The United States Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory, (DOE/NETL), sponsored the first international gas hydrate code comparison study, IGHCCS1, in the early 2000s. IGHCCS1 focused on coupled thermal and hydrologic processes associated with producing gas hydrates from geologic reservoirs via depressurization and thermal stimulation. Subsequently, GHRSs have advanced to model more complex production technologies and incorporate geomechanical processes into the existing framework of coupled thermal and hydrologic modeling. This paper contributes to the validation of these recent GHRS developments by providing results from a second GHRS code comparison study, IGHCCS2, also sponsored by DOE/NETL. IGHCCS2 includes participants from an international collection of universities, research institutes, industry, national laboratories, and national geologic surveys. Study participants developed a series of five benchmark problems principally involving gas hydrate processes with geomechanical components. The five problems range from simple geometries with analytical solutions to a representation of the world's first offshore production test of methane hydrates, which was conducted with the depressurization method off the coast of Japan. To identify strengths and limitations in the various GHRSs, study participants submitted solutions for the benchmark problems and discussed differing results via teleconferences. The GHRSs evolved over the course of IGHCCS2 as researchers modified their simulators to reflect new insights, lessons learned, and suggested performance enhancements. The five benchmark problems, final sample solutions, and lessons learned that are presented here document the study outcomes and serve as a reference guide for developing and testing gas hydrate reservoir simulators.

Description: Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a key technology to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from industrial processes in a feasible, substantial, and timely manner. For geological CO2 storage to be safe, reliable, and accepted by society, robust strategies for CO2 leakage detection, quantification and management are crucial. The STEMM-CCS (Strategies for Environmental Monitoring of Marine Carbon Capture and Storage) project aimed to provide techniques and understanding to enable and inform cost-effective monitoring of CCS sites in the marine environment. A controlled CO2 release experiment was carried out in the central North Sea, designed to mimic an unintended emission of CO2 from a subsurface CO2 storage site to the seafloor. A total of 675 kg of CO2 were released into the shallow sediments (~3 m 49 below seafloor), at flow rates between 6 and 143 kg/d. A combination of novel techniques, adapted versions of existing techniques, and well-proven standard techniques were used to detect, characterise and quantify gaseous and dissolved CO2 in the sediments and the overlying seawater. This paper provides an overview of this ambitious field experiment. We describe the preparatory work prior to the release experiment, the experimental layout and procedures, the methods tested, and summarise the main results and the lessons learnt.

Description: Highlights • An artificial CO2 release demonstrated MMV techniques for offshore CCS. • Detection of leakage was demonstrated using acoustic, chemical and physical approaches. • Attribution of leakage was proved possible using artificial and natural tracer compounds. • Leakage quantification was possible using approaches not previously applied to CCS studies. • Non-catastrophic leaks were detected at levels below those that would cause environmental harm. Carbon capture and storage is a key mitigation strategy proposed for keeping the global temperature rise below 1.5 °C. Offshore storage can provide up to 13% of the global CO2 reduction required to achieve the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change goals. The public must be assured that potential leakages from storage reservoirs can be detected and that therefore the CO2 is safely contained. We conducted a controlled release of 675 kg CO2 within sediments at 120 m water depth, to simulate a leak and test novel detection, quantification and attribution approaches. We show that even at a very low release rate (6 kg day−1), CO2 can be detected within sediments and in the water column. Alongside detection we show the fluxes of both dissolved and gaseous CO2 can be quantified. The CO2 source was verified using natural and added tracers. The experiment demonstrates that existing technologies and techniques can detect, attribute and quantify any escape of CO2 from sub-seabed reservoirs as required for public assurance, regulatory oversight and emissions trading schemes.

Description: Background: Biological invasions threaten the functioning of ecosystems, biodiversity, and human well-being by degrading ecosystem services and eliciting massive economic costs. The European Union has historically been a hub for cultural development and global trade, and thus, has extensive opportunities for the introduction and spread of alien species. While reported costs of biological invasions to some member states have been recently assessed, ongoing knowledge gaps in taxonomic and spatio-temporal data suggest that these costs were considerably underestimated. Results: We used the latest available cost data in InvaCost (v4.1)—the most comprehensive database on the costs of biological invasions—to assess the magnitude of this underestimation within the European Union via projections of current and future invasion costs. We used macroeconomic scaling and temporal modelling approaches to project available cost information over gaps in taxa, space, and time, thereby producing a more complete estimate for the European Union economy. We identified that only 259 out of 13,331 (~ 1%) known invasive alien species have reported costs in the European Union. Using a conservative subset of highly reliable, observed, country-level cost entries from 49 species (totalling US$4.7 billion; 2017 value), combined with the establishment data of alien species within European Union member states, we projected unreported cost data for all member states. Conclusions: Our corrected estimate of observed costs was potentially 501% higher (US$28.0 billion) than currently recorded. Using future projections of current estimates, we also identified a substantial increase in costs and costly species (US$148.2 billion) by 2040. We urge that cost reporting be improved to clarify the economic impacts of greatest concern, concomitant with coordinated international action to prevent and mitigate the impacts of invasive alien species in the European Union and globally.

Description: Europe has experienced a substantial increase in non-indigenous crayfish species (NICS) since the mid-20th century due to their extensive use in fisheries, aquaculture and, more recently, pet trade. Despite relatively long invasion histories of some NICS and negative impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, large spatio-temporal analyses of their occurrences are lacking. Here, we used a large freshwater macroinvertebrate database to evaluate what information on NICS can be obtained from widely applied biomonitoring approaches and how usable such data is for descriptions of trends in identified NICS species. We found 160 time-series containing NICS between 1983 and 2019, to infer temporal patterns and environmental drivers of species and region-specific trends. Using a combination of meta-regression and generalized linear models, we found no significant temporal trend for the abundance of any species (Procambarus clarkii, Pacifastacus leniusculus or Faxonius limosus) at the European scale, but identified species-specific predictors of abundances. While analysis of the spatial range expansion of NICS was positive (i.e. increasing spread) in England and negative (significant retreat) in northern Spain, no trend was detected in Hungary and the Dutch-German-Luxembourg region. The average invasion velocity varied among countries, ranging from 30 km/year in England to 90 km/year in Hungary. The average invasion velocity gradually decreased over time in the long term, with declines being fastest in the Dutch-German-Luxembourg region, and much slower in England. Considering that NICS pose a substantial threat to aquatic biodiversity across Europe, our study highlights the utility and importance of collecting high resolution (i.e. annual) biomonitoring data using a sampling protocol that is able to estimate crayfish abundance, enabling a more profound understanding of NICS impacts on biodiversity.

Description: Evaluation of seismic reflection data has identified the presence of fluid escape structures cross-cutting overburden stratigraphy within sedimentary basins globally. Seismically-imaged chimneys/pipes are considered to be possible pathways for fluid flow, which may hydraulically connect deeper strata to the seabed. These fluid migration pathways through the overburden must be constrained to enable secure, long-term subsurface carbon dioxide (CO2) storage. We have investigated a site of natural active fluid escape in the North Sea, the Scanner Pockmark Complex, to determine the physical characteristics of focused fluid conduits, and how they control fluid flow. Here we show that a multi-scale, multi disciplinary experimental approach is required for complete characterisation of fluid escape structures. Geophysical techniques are necessary to resolve fracture geometry and subsurface structure (e.g., multifrequency seismics) and physical parameters of sediments (e.g., controlled source electromagnetics) across length scales (m to km). At smaller (mm to cm) scales, sediment cores were sampled directly and their physical and chemical properties assessed using laboratory-based methods. Numerical modelling approaches bridge the resolution gap, though their validity is dependent on calibration and constraint from field and laboratory experimental data. Further, time-lapse seismic and acoustic methods capable of resolving temporal changes are key for determining fluid flux. Future optimisation of experiment resource use may be facilitated by the installation of permanent seabed infrastructure, and replacement of manual data processing with automated workflows. This study can be used to inform measurement, monitoring and verification workflows that will assist policymaking, regulation, and best practice for CO2 subsurface storage operations.

Description: Although subaqueous slopes on active continental margins are subject to a variety of failure styles, their movement mechanisms during earthquakes remain poorly constrained. A primary explanation is that few submarine landslides have been directly sampled for detailed investigation. We have conducted a series of dynamic shear experiments on samples recovered from the base of the Tuaheni Landslide Complex, located off the east coast of the North Island of New Zealand, to explore its behaviour during earthquakes. Our experiments suggest that whilst the basal landslide sediments can be prone to liquefaction in certain conditions, this is not a likely failure mechanism at the stress states operating in the low angled shear zone at the base of this landslide system. Instead, episodic landslide movement can occur through basal sliding when pore water pressures increase sufficiently to lower the shear zone effective stress to the material failure envelope. These low effective stress conditions are most likely to be reached during earthquakes that produce large amplitude, long duration ground shaking. The observed behaviour provides a credible mechanism through which subaqueous landslides moving on low angled shear zones in similar materials may be subject to episodic movement during earthquakes without undergoing catastrophic failure.

Description: The Teahitia-Mehetia hot spot region located in the southeastern extension of the Society Islands chain, near 18° S–148° W consists of several active volcanoes. The distribution of recent volcanic activity correlates with seismic epicenters, and covers an area of more than 1000 km2. Intermittent volcanic activity has given rise to large (〉1000 m high) and small (〈500 m high) edifices composed of various types of flows. Several recent volcanic events have produced a suite of alkalic rocks ranging from ankaramites, through alkali basalts to trachy-phonolites. The presence of altered MORB-like tholeiites on one small seamount suggests that a different mantle source material was involved in forming some of the crust in this hot spot region.

Description: Highlights • Seismic depth imaging gives insight into the southern Hikurangi subduction zone. • Velocities reveal regional variations in compaction and drainage of input sediments. • Dewatering of subducted sediments might influence décollement strength. • Thrusts at the leading edge of deformation are upper-plate dewatering pathways. • Stratigraphic host of the décollement changes at the southern end of the margin. Abstract The southern end of New Zealand's Hikurangi subduction margin accommodates highly oblique convergence between the Pacific and Australian plates. We carry out two-dimensional (2D) seismic reflection tomography and pre-stack depth migrations on two seismic lines to gain insight into the nature of subducted sediments and upper plate faulting and dewatering at the toe of the wedge. We also investigate the NE to SW evolution of emergent upper plate thrust faulting using 47 seismic lines spanning an along-strike distance of ∼270 km. The upper sequence of sediments that ultimately gets subducted (the MES sequence) has an anomalously-low seismic velocity character. At the southwestern end of the margin, ∼150 km east of Kaikōura, the MES sequence has experienced greater compaction (for an equivalent effective vertical stress) than it has some 200 km further to the northeast. This difference is likely attributable to greater horizontal compression in the southwest caused by impingement of the Chatham Rise on the deformation front. Relationships between velocity and effective vertical stress suggest that the MES sequence is well-drained in the vicinity of frontal thrusts, corroborated by evidence for upper plate dewatering along those thrusts. Effective drainage of the MES sequence likely promotes interplate coupling on the southern Hikurangi margin. The décollement is generally hosted near a seismic reflector known as “Reflector 7”. East of Kaikōura, however, Reflector 7 becomes accreted, indicating that subduction slip at the southwestern end of the margin is no longer hosted at (or above) this reflector. Instead, the décollement steps down to a deeper stratigraphic level further inboard. Further to the SW, approximately in line with the lower Kaikōura Canyon, the offshore manifestation of subduction-driven compression ceases.