ALBERT

Description: Specific to the application of any technology to a vehicle, such as circulation control, it is important to understand the process that NASA is using to set its direction in research and development. To see how circulation control fits into any given NASA program requires the reader to understand NASA's Vehicle Systems (VS) Program. The VS Program recently celebrated its first year of existence with an annual review - an opportunity to look back on accomplishments, solicit feedback, expand national advocacy and support for the program, and recognize key contributions. Since its formation last year, Vehicle Systems has coordinated seven existing entities in a streamlined aeronautics research effort. It invests in vehicle technologies to protect the environment, make air travel more accessible and affordable for Americans, enable exploration through new aerospace missions, and augment national security. This past year has seen a series of valuable partnerships with industry, academia, and government agencies to make crucial aeronautics advances and assure America s future in flight.

Description: The Shear History Extensional Rheology Experiment (SHERE) is an International Space Station (ISS) glovebox experiment designed to study the effect of preshear on the transient evolution of the microstructure and viscoelastic tensile stresses for monodisperse dilute polymer solutions. The SHERE experiment hardware was launched on Shuttle Mission STS-120 (ISS Flight 10A) on October 22, 2007, and 20 fluid samples were launched on Shuttle Mission STS-123 (ISS Flight 10/A) on March 11, 2008. Astronaut Gregory Chamitoff performed experiments during Increment 17 on the ISS between June and September 2008. A summary of the ten year history of the hardware development, the experiment's science objectives, and Increment 17's flight operations are discussed in the paper. A brief summary of the preliminary science results is also discussed.

Description: The planning of conjunction Risk Mitigation Maneuvers (RMM) in the presence of ground-track control requirements is analyzed. Past RMM planning efforts on the Aqua, Aura, and Terra spacecraft have demonstrated that only small maneuvers are available when ground-track control requirements are maintained. Assuming small maneuvers, analytical expressions for the effect of a given maneuver on conjunction geometry are derived. The analytical expressions are used to generate a large trade space for initial RMM design. This trade space represents a significant improvement in initial maneuver planning over existing methods that employ high fidelity maneuver models and propagation.

Description: During the Fall 2006 inclination campaign for the Aqua spacecraft it was discovered that there was significant uncertainty in the prediction of the semimajor axis change during a maneuver. The low atmospheric drag environment at the time of the maneuvers amplified the effects of this uncertainty leading to a potential violation of the spacecraft ground-track requirements. In order to understand the uncertainty, a Monte Carlo simulation was developed to characterize the expected semi-major axis change uncertainty given the observed behavior of the spacecraft propulsion and attitude control systems during a maneuver. This expected uncertainty was then used to develop new analysis tools to ensure that future inclination maneuver plans will .meet ground-track control requirements in the presence of the error.

Description: The Earth Observing System (EOS) spacecraft Terra, Aqua, and Aura fly in constellation with several other spacecraft in 705-kilometer mean altitude sun-synchronous orbits. All three spacecraft are operated by the Earth Science Mission Operations (ESMO) Project at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). In 2004, the ESMO project began assessing the probability of collision of the EOS spacecraft with other space objects. In addition to conjunctions with high relative velocities, the collision assessment method for the EOS spacecraft must address conjunctions with low relative velocities during potential collisions between constellation members. Probability of Collision algorithms that are based on assumptions of high relative velocities and linear relative trajectories are not suitable for these situations; therefore an algorithm for handling the nonlinear relative trajectories was developed. This paper describes this algorithm and presents results from its validation for operational use. The probability of collision is typically calculated by integrating a Gaussian probability distribution over the volume swept out by a sphere representing the size of the space objects involved in the conjunction. This sphere is defined as the Hard Body Radius. With the assumption of linear relative trajectories, this volume is a cylinder, which translates into simple limits of integration for the probability calculation. For the case of nonlinear relative trajectories, the volume becomes a complex geometry. However, with an appropriate choice of coordinate systems, the new algorithm breaks down the complex geometry into a series of simple cylinders that have simple limits of integration. This nonlinear algorithm will be discussed in detail in the paper. The nonlinear Probability of Collision algorithm was first verified by showing that, when used in high relative velocity cases, it yields similar answers to existing high relative velocity linear relative trajectory algorithms. The comparison with the existing high velocity/linear theory will also be used to determine at what relative velocity the analysis should use the new nonlinear theory in place of the existing linear theory. The nonlinear algorithm was also compared to a known exact solution for the probability of collision between two objects when the relative motion is strictly circular and the error covariance is spherically symmetric. Figure I shows preliminary results from this comparison by plotting the probabilities calculated from the new algorithm and those from the exact solution versus the Hard Body Radius to Covariance ratio. These results show about 5% error when the Hard Body Radius is equal to one half the spherical covariance magnitude. The algorithm was then combined with a high fidelity orbit state and error covariance propagator into a useful tool for analyzing low relative velocity nonlinear relative trajectories. The high fidelity propagator is capable of using atmospheric drag, central body gravitational, solar radiation, and third body forces to provide accurate prediction of the relative trajectories and covariance evolution. The covariance propagator also includes a process noise model to ensure realistic evolutions of the error covariance. This paper will describe the integration of the nonlinear probability algorithm and the propagators into a useful collision assessment tool. Finally, a hypothetical case study involving a low relative velocity conjunction between members of the Earth Observation System constellation will be presented.

Description: Significant error has been observed in the long term prediction of the Mean Local Time of the Ascending Node on the Aqua spacecraft. This error of approximately 90 seconds over a two year prediction is a complication in planning and timing of maneuvers for all members of the Earth Observing System Afternoon Constellation, which use Aqua's MLTAN as the reference for their inclination maneuvers. It was determined that the source of the prediction error was the lack of a solid Earth tide model in the operational force models. The Love Model of the solid Earth tide potential was used to derive analytic corrections to the inclination and right ascension of the ascending node of Aqua's Sun-synchronous orbit. Additionally, it was determined that the resonance between the Sun and orbit plane of the Sun-synchronous orbit is the primary driver of this error. The analytic corrections have been added to the operational force models for the Aqua spacecraft reducing the two-year 90-second error to less than 7 seconds.

Description: There is often skepticism about the need for Conjunction Assessment from mission operators that invest in the "big sky theory", which states that the likelihood of a collision is so small that it can be neglected. On 10 February 2009, the collision between Iridium 3; and Cosmos 2251 provided an indication that this theory is invalid and that a CA process should be considered for all missions. This paper presents statistics of the effect of the Iridium/Cosmos collision on NASA's Earth Science Constellation as well as results of analyses which characterize the debris environment for NASA's robotic missions.

Description: Deep-towed geophysical surveys require precise knowledge of navigational parameters such as instrument position and orientation because navigational uncertainties reflect in the data and therefore in the inferred geophysical properties of the subseafloor. We address this issue for the case of electrical conductivity inferred from controlled source electromagnetic data. We show that the data error is laterally variable due to irregular motion during deep towing, but also due to lateral variations in conductivity, including those resulting from topography. To address this variability and quantify the data error prior to inversion, we propose a 2-D perturbation study. Our workflow enables stable and geologically reliable results for multicomponent and multifrequency inversions. An error estimation workflow is presented, which comprises the assessment of navigational uncertainties, perturbation of navigational parameters, and forward modelling of electric field amplitudes for a homogeneous and then a heterogeneous subseafloor conductivity model. Some navigational uncertainties are estimated from variations of direct measurements. Other navigational parameters required for inversion are derived from the measured quantities and their error is calculated by means of error propagation. Some navigational parameters show direct correlation with the measured electric fields. For example, the antenna dip correlates with the vertical electric field and the depth correlates with the horizontal electric field. For the perturbation study each standard deviation is added to the navigational parameters. Forward models are run for each perturbation. Amplitude deviations are summed in quadrature with the stacking error for a total, laterally varying, data error. The error estimation is repeated for a heterogeneous subseafloor model due to the large conductivity range (several orders of magnitude), which affects the forward model. The approach enables us to utilize data from several components (multiple electric fields, frequencies and receivers) in the inversion to constrain the final model and reduce ambiguity. The final model is geologically reasonable, in this case enabling the identification of conductive metal sulphide deposits on the seafloor.

Description: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2 products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, and Earth system models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2022, EFOS increased by 0.9 % relative to 2021, with fossil emissions at 9.9±0.5 Gt C yr−1 (10.2±0.5 Gt C yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is not included), and ELUC was 1.2±0.7 Gt C yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1±0.8 Gt C yr−1 (40.7±3.2 Gt CO2 yr−1). Also, for 2022, GATM was 4.6±0.2 Gt C yr−1 (2.18±0.1 ppm yr−1; ppm denotes parts per million), SOCEAN was 2.8±0.4 Gt C yr−1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 Gt C yr−1, with a BIM of −0.1 Gt C yr−1 (i.e. total estimated sources marginally too low or sinks marginally too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2022 reached 417.1±0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2023 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2022 of +1.1 % (0.0 % to 2.1 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 419.3 ppm, 51 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean of and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2022, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 Gt C yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows the following: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade.

Description: Fossil fuel combustion, land use change and other human activities have increased the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) abundance by about 50% since the beginning of the industrial age. The atmospheric CO2 growth rates would have been much larger if natural sinks in the land biosphere and ocean had not removed over half of this anthropogenic CO2. As these CO2 emissions grew, uptake by the ocean increased in response to increases in atmospheric CO2 partial pressure (pCO(2)). On land, gross primary production also increased, but the dynamics of other key aspects of the land carbon cycle varied regionally. Over the past three decades, CO2 uptake by intact tropical humid forests declined, but these changes are offset by increased uptake across mid- and high-latitudes. While there have been substantial improvements in our ability to study the carbon cycle, measurement and modeling gaps still limit our understanding of the processes driving its evolution. Continued ship-based observations combined with expanded deployments of autonomous platforms are needed to quantify ocean-atmosphere fluxes and interior ocean carbon storage on policy-relevant spatial and temporal scales. There is also an urgent need for more comprehensive measurements of stocks, fluxes and atmospheric CO2 in humid tropical forests and across the Arctic and boreal regions, which are experiencing rapid change. Here, we review our understanding of the atmosphere, ocean, and land carbon cycles and their interactions, identify emerging measurement and modeling capabilities and gaps and the need for a sustainable, operational framework to ensure a scientific basis for carbon management.